ICE or EV?

[irvinehomeowner]

Xpeng shares were down after the company reported earnings that missed expectations and forecast aplunge in car sales.

revenue in the first quarter plunged 50%

deliveries of its vehicles to be between 21,000 and 22,000 in the second quarter, representing a year-over-year decrease of 36.1% to 39.0%.

Really? Did you read the reasons why? Not because of waning demand in EVs... but because of new competition and current competition price cuts.

Same thing happened here... Tesla kept raising prices so then people started going with other EV brands, who then also raised their prices (Ford).

Then Tesla cut their prices and demand in the other brands went down, which cause other EV brands to adjust their pricing (again Ford).

But overalls EV sales increased... why don't you Google for that?.

Find the article that says overall US EV sales have declined (or find one for China too).

EV gonna EV.

 

[morekaos]

if demand is so great no one needs to cut prices. Inventory clears immediately… In fact, under your scenario everyone should be raising prices because demand outstrips supply…Economics 101… But that’s not happening.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Still dancing... are overall EV sales increasing or decreasing?

 

[CalBears96]

In this topic, moretroll keeps embarrassing himself, doesn't know when to take an L, and keeps embarrassing himself again and again and again....

 

[AW]

because, seeing past all the glom on fawning is my job as well as buffets, it’s both our jobs to be right more than wrong when investing money. That doesn’t mean you’re always right. Never claimed to be but for 35 years, managing hundreds of millions I’ve consistently delivered. Watching these trends reminds me very much of solar, bitcoin, housing in the early 2000s. It gets treated like a cult where anyone who opposes it is a heretic. I have found that being the heretic can be very profitable.

to be right more than wrong when investing money, i mean, who wants to lose money when investing... lol

also looking at these trends, it's more risk/reward profile, but even in your example, early 2000's bitcoin, (let's say BTC as it started), you'd be up 7800%. If you sold it anywhere near the high, it'd be astronomical
same with buying houses, even if you bought at the highest point in mid 2000's, if held, the prices (at least in irvine) is close to double

if demand is so great no one needs to cut prices. Inventory clears immediately… In fact, under your scenario everyone should be raising prices because demand outstrips supply…Economics 101… But that’s not happening.

EV as a % of sales is increasing, as mentioned several times. Imagine if a client keeps on asking the same point...
dance baby dance

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Economics 101

Okay... I know this may be a waste of my time but I just want to see if @morekaos is actually open to discussion or just feigning ignorance because I don't think he's that obtuse.

Timeframe and units are just for demonstration purposes

Month 1:
500 EVs sold
200 Xpeng
200 Telsa
100 Nio

Month 2:
700 EVs sold
300 Xpeng
200 Tesla
200 Nio

Month 3:
1000 EVs sold
200 Xpeng
400 Tesla (doubles due to price drops)
100 Nio
100 New EV Company 1
200 New EV Company 2

So each month, total number of EVs sold increased, Month 2 makes Xpeng and Nio expect an increase in demand so they produce more, but then Month 3 throws them for a loop because Tesla cut their prices so everyone bought from them and 2 new companies came out with new (better?) EVs and people bought from them too. So overall sales increased, but individual brands sales could have gone down or up depending on many factors.

This is not exactly how things happens, but this could explain why individual brands sales decrease while overall sales in the category increase.

Did that make sense morekaos? I didn't think I had to explain this but you make is sound like this needs to be ELI5.

 

[morekaos]

when sales go from one unit to two, you’ve increased your sales 100% from 2 to 4 another hundred percent. Looks impressive but doesn’t mean much…If sales, then level off you get zero growth. EV sales will peak and the fall when all the idealists (rich people who can afford a virtue signaling toy) already have one and no one else wants one. That day is coming.

 

[Happiness]

Whether or not you like EV or ICE, you have to respect Tesla's business practices.
Tesla has no dealers or labor unions. Dealers and unions are a relic of the last century that does nothing in the modern age but add an unnecessary layer of cost on cars. Tesla's lack of dealers and unions gives it, in the foreseeable future, an insurmountable price advantage over legacy automakers. Ford's CEO recently estimated that Tesla's cost advantage over traditional carmakers is $10k per EV.

 

[qwerty]

Teslas aggressive pricing recently definitely benefits from not having dealer costs to deal with, but make no mistake about it, they will charge as much as the market will bear so it’s not like those costs savings are being passed to the consumer. We saw that recently when the model y had a starting sticker price of about 63k.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

EV sales will peak and the fall when all the idealists (rich people who can afford a virtue signaling toy) already have one and no one else wants one. That day is coming.

So you gave up on trying to understand Economics 101?

This has been said about almost every emerging technology and as it matures, the naysayers get proven wrong.

This was said about the smartphone... yet there are threads here asking how old their kids are before they get one.

EVs are not just about ideology, they are better cars... instant power, quiet and lower maintenance. When you get that maybe you will understand.

You say you have the original iPhone... why did you get it? What phone do you have now?

 

[morekaos]

that’s what you don’t get IHO, kind of like eye, . I had the first iPhone itself and almost every iteration. Before that, I had a newton, few people know what that is. I understand trend and cult and I’m telling you this is one of them.
Currently have an iPhone 13, I really don’t see a need for one better than that yet. The camera is just too awesome. Most of my computing is done at work.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

You miss the point... why did you get the iPhone and every iteration after? Why did you get a Newton?

And the fact you do most of your computing at work also demonstrates your limited knowledge of technology.

Just because you own a smartphone doesn't make you understand technology trends... it just shows that you want to... but doesn't prove you do.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

This discussion in a nutshell

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668748263300710401

 

[AW]

lol, guess toyota can lean a little more left now:

Toyota introduced an ambitious new EV strategy

Toyota Motor Corp. has announced plans to roll out a new line of solid-state batteries that will give its electric vehicles (EVs) a longer range and trim production costs.

finance.yahoo.com

EV strategy introduced, stocks go up

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Solid state batteries is the evolving technology I've been talking about.

2 interesting things from that Toyota article:

1. Still banking on Hydrogen. Just because there is a decent infrastructure for H2 fueling in Japan, does not mean the rest of the world will follow when they can choose electric over H2.

2. Using Tesla's Giga casting methodology for assembly. There is tons of stuff that Elon does that these legacy car makers should follow and this is one of them because it greatly reduces cost and time to production.

 

[CalBears96]

Even an OIL company believes in EV.

Now There Are 3000 More Chances to Charge Your EV with Shell

The oil company bought 3000 charging stalls from Volta, looking to have a half-million charging points worldwide by 2025.

www.caranddriver.com

Shell CEO says EV charging stations in China are hot, predicts 'robust' oil and gas demand

Shell CEO Wael Sawan said the energy giant is boosting oil and gas production to book near-term profits, but is also building EV charging stations in China.

www.cnbc.com

 

[irvinehomeowner]

If I were any oil company or gas station network owner... I would be looking at monetizing my gas station locations with solar and EV charging. In SoCal there are not many Electrify America chargers and that is the one that has DC Fast Charging so I would start partnering with them.

 

[morekaos]

Even an OIL company believes in EV.

Now There Are 3000 More Chances to Charge Your EV with Shell

The oil company bought 3000 charging stalls from Volta, looking to have a half-million charging points worldwide by 2025.

www.caranddriver.com

Shell CEO says EV charging stations in China are hot, predicts 'robust' oil and gas demand

Shell CEO Wael Sawan said the energy giant is boosting oil and gas production to book near-term profits, but is also building EV charging stations in China.

www.cnbc.com

…just a cheap way to virtue signal…”chump change”

• Shell CEO Wael Sawan sees “very robust” demand for oil and gas in the near and medium term, he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday.

Shell Can Afford It . . .​

Buying Volta wasn't a financial challenge for Shell, which made more money selling oil last year than at any point in its long history. The company recorded $40 billion in profits in 2022, due partly to Russia's invasion of Ukraine that led to dramatically higher oil and gas prices. The company paid its CEO almost $12 million last year.

Shell is not entering the EV charging game with this chump-change purchase of Volta.
Even though Volta's value was already declining, the market saw January's announcement as troubling news, causing multiple EV charging company stocks to lose value

 

[Hugo Township]

I thought they made money from their convenience stores?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I'm not even going to provide links:

TSLA stock going up as more sign up to adopt their NACS standard (the most recent is Rivian)

GM building more EVs in China than the US because EVs gonna EV

Cadillac coming out with Escalade EV

Hyundai Ioniq 6 Standard Range SE now at $37,715 (I know, morekaos will only be able to find the $100k one)