coronavirus

qwerty said:
So if protest are not considered risky why the hell did we shut down? Further validation that the initial lockdown was a huge, costly mistake.

IHO/NSR - now that things are open, with the virus still out there,  and people dining out/going to casinos, etc, Do you guys still think the economic damage would have been the same without a lockdown? I?m asssuming all of those people protesting clearly don?t fear the virus and probably never did (probably because they have a 99.75% chance of survival), they probably would have still kept going to work and spending some money.

Just curious as we get more information if your view is evolving.

It seems like the economic fallout was about the response itself, not so much the virus.
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Sweden gives you the answer that you don't want.  You can just read the other TalkIrvine posters' comments about the empty restaurants BEFORE lockdown went into effect as your answer.  Or review the Airline bailout demands before lockdowns went into effect.  In early April with NYC having it's meltdown a lot of people would not have been chomping to go out.

I will say, we could have been a lot smarter.  Through the combination willful ignorance and Government incompetence, we did not test, contact and trace like South Korea and other more effective responses.  Applying what we know in June to what we did not know in March is a false choice. 

The path out was information. Information we did not collect.  Safety and management protocols we did not follow so instead we locked everything down.  Why because the number people showing up at the hospital sick and dying was going up like a rocket.  The number people dying in other countries was going up like a rocket.  When 3% or more of the people being tested in multiple countries are dying, people get scared.  They don't out, they hoard toilet paper.

JIMHO, the only reason you have people willing to line up to get into Mitsuwa, or wait in lines to go into a restaurant today is because we held the carnage to largely NYC.

As for the protests, it's summer, it's outdoors, they're largely young.  It's a slow fuse, to track back from them to their families etc.  Maybe like the flu, the warmth shuts it down.  OC's trend though, doesn't agree.  It's still low, but tripled since our late April flatten bottom.
 
Can't use science/data/logic to convince qwerty so I'll thank NSR's post instead.

It's simple, if there were tons of people getting sick and dying... the economy would suffer. As I said before, we are lucky to have people healthy to be able to reopen.

Let's hope the virus is seasonal like the flu and all these protesters will not get sick due to much lower viral load... otherwise the next 2-4 weeks is going to be bad news.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Can't use science/data/logic to convince qwerty so I'll thank NSR's post instead.

It's simple, if there were tons of people getting sick and dying... the economy would suffer. As I said before, we are lucky to have people healthy to be able to reopen.

Let's hope the virus is seasonal like the flu and all these protesters will not get sick due to much lower viral load... otherwise the next 2-4 weeks is going to be bad news.
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We closed at 200 new cases/day point and reopen at 2500 new cases/day. I can only conclude one of two reasons (pick any)
1. Newsom intentionally destroyed the state economy, now starts killing people
2. Stay at home strategy rendered ineffective.
 
Sweden supports the answer I know it would have been. Sweden outperformed their neighbors in q1 gdp.

Yes Sweden went down, but nowhere near as much as it?s neighbors. That?s my point. We would not be as bad as we are  now
 
qwerty said:
Sweden supports the answer I know it would have been. Sweden outperformed their neighbors in q1 gdp.

Yes Sweden went down, but nowhere near as much as it?s neighbors. That?s my point. We would not be as bad as we are  now
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Fake news. Pandemic started end of Q1, nice cherry picking.

And, they did lock down too. Just not as strict.
 
Cherry picking? That?s the only data that?s available. And Europe got hit harder before we did.

Pretty much every article says Sweden didn?t lock down. Restaurants were open for normal dining.
 
qwerty said:
Sweden supports the answer I know it would have been. Sweden outperformed their neighbors in q1 gdp.

Yes Sweden went down, but nowhere near as much as it?s neighbors. That?s my point. We would not be as bad as we are  now
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This is really a 2021 discussion.  Sweden GDP forecast is the same as its neighbors.  The Swedish people aren?t really feeling the Q1 enamor they had, now that they?re leading their neighbors in the covid counts.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/06/04/a-warning-from-sweden/#1452e1404c56
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ebuked-as-covid-deaths-ignite-political-anger
 
qwerty said:
Cherry picking? That?s the only data that?s available. And Europe got hit harder before we did.

Pretty much every article says Sweden didn?t lock down. Restaurants were open for normal dining.
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You need to read better. They didn?t allow social gatherings and schools for ages 16 and up were closed.

And even though they did keep many businesses open, not many people went and there were social distancing rules in effect. I posted an article about that a while ago which you obviously didn?t read.

And again, you can?t compare Sweden to the US. Compare them to the other countries close to them and you will see the difference.

To continually say we would be like Sweden is misleading.
 
You missed the biggest on though.

They were and expect everyone to be, socially responsible during their efforts.  Masks, social distancing, self isolating with symptoms.  You know basically everything the open up protesters at that south county bar rallied against. 

They aren?t really protesting to open the business, they protesting the government telling them to be socially responsible.
 
Not sure if anyone is still keeping track of OC?s numbers but it worries me that number of hospitalizations is hovering near 300 and ICU count is getting close to 150.

The good news is that is still way below hospital capacity and I hope it stays that way.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Not sure if anyone is still keeping track of OC?s numbers but it worries me that number of hospitalizations is hovering near 300 and ICU count is getting close to 150.

The good news is that is still way below hospital capacity and I hope it stays that way.
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it's been 4 days...so far i'm not a statistic...yet  ;)
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Not sure if anyone is still keeping track of OC?s numbers but it worries me that number of hospitalizations is hovering near 300 and ICU count is getting close to 150.

The good news is that is still way below hospital capacity and I hope it stays that way.
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Is the ICU and Hospitalization counts being published an all in number or is that just a "Coronavirus" number. If it is a all-in number, I would think there is a backlog of people who didn't go in to the Dr's and had probably more serious conditions that lay idle during the quarantine, so we would see just a natural spike in hospitalization & dr visits. 
 
So now I?m feeling qwertish, are the scientists just toying with us?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asy...-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated that the virus could spread from person-to-person contact, even if the carrier didn?t have symptoms. But WHO officials now say that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is not the main way it?s being transmitted.

?From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,? Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO?s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency?s Geneva headquarters. ?It?s very rare.?

I?m going to Vegas.
 
I read that, yesterday I think, and I thought about posting this for you IHO and now you are doing my job for me :)

It is pretty crazy that everyone keeps flip flopping to some extent. I get that it?s probably best to err on the side of caution, which is what the shutdown was, but it should be a cautionary tale for the next time there is some crazy disease to that China gifts the rest of the world, or event the ?second wave? of covid.

It was a very expensive lesson to learn.
 
Will you send your kids back to normal school in the FALL?
Currently it's a no for my family.  It could change to a yes if it looks like we are controlling the virus well in early AUG.
 
Was riding on the beach Sunday with a friend who owns a parts manufacturing company.  He decided to test out so he could be in the office more.  Over a month took 5 tests. 2 saliva, one blood prick, one blood draw and one nasal swab.  He said it made him insane.  2 positives and 3 negatives over a month.  He was scared and elated 4 times!!! Still not sure if he ever had it, negative for the antibody...these tests tell us nothing but I bet he got entered into the infected stat twice as one person.  Whats a mess...garbage in, garbage out!!!
 
WHO backpedaling:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/09/asymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-who/

The World Health Organization moved Tuesday to clarify its position on whether people without symptoms are widely spreading the new coronavirus, saying much remains unknown about asymptomatic transmission.

A comment by a WHO official on Monday ? calling such asymptomatic transmissions ?very rare? ? touched off a furious scientific debate over the unresolved question and attracted widespread criticism of the organization.

Less than 24 hours later, WHO convened a special news conference to walk back its comments, stressing that much remains unknown. But the comment from Monday had already spread widely and been seized upon by conservatives and others to bolster arguments that people do not need to wear masks or maintain social distancing precautions.

The episode sparked criticism of WHO?s public health messaging and highlighted just how fraught and easily politicized such work remains months into the pandemic.

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Calling the controversy ?a misunderstanding,? Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO?s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, said that during the news conference Monday, she was trying to respond to a journalist?s question when she said asymptomatic transmission was ?very rare.?

?I wasn?t stating a policy of WHO or anything like that,? she said. ?We do know that some people who are asymptomatic, or some people who do not have symptoms, can transmit the virus on.?

It was not the ?intent of WHO to say there is a new or different policy,? added Mike Ryan, head of emergency programs for WHO. ?There is still too much unknown about this virus and still too much unknown about its transmission dynamics.?
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Cancelled my visit to the Bachanal Buffet. :(
 
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