Central Park West thoughts?

[test]

Sometimes burning down is cheaper than the carrying costs.

 

[test]

I looked at Astoria a few months before they turned them into apartments and the sales person actually tried to tell me with a straight face that they had priced them too LOW and that is why they took them off the market.  I dont know how i contained my laughter.

It was priced too low.  For the SELLER.  This is why all condo to rental conversions happen.  Why eat a huge loss when you can rent it out instead.  The rental market is booming right now so it makes even more business sense.

 

[cvballa]

So to say CPW is insanely overpriced and should be torn down is an overstatement.

No, it's not an overstatement, it's a simple fact. While Irvine in general may be overpriced, that fact alone doesn't mean that CPW isn't insanely overpriced itself, because it is. Those models won't be at rental parity even with a solid 15% drop (which you seem to be waiting for). That alone should tell you how badly these units are priced.

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

OOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHH!  You are one of THOSE!  Now it all makes sense...... I bet you are buying into the gold bubble too.... congrats, lets see how that works out for you

 

[IndieDev]

OOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHH!  You are one of THOSE!

You mean:

- Wealthy enough to own a large SFR, valued in the 7 digits, in an exclusive neighborhood in Irvine
- Not desperate enough to be waiting for discounts on a $400,000 condo, in a failed community that has sat 95%+ vacant for 4 years because no one wants to live there.
- Has had their portfolio increase in value by 200% since 2009 even in the midst of one of the worst recessions in U.S history

You mean, one of those? Guilty as charged. ;D

 

[NoSoup4U]

Has had their portfolio increase in value by 200% since 2009 even in the midst of one of the worst recessions in U.S history

Very impressive Indie.  I'm curious, what is your take on gold right now?

 

[IndieDev]

Has had their portfolio increase in value by 200% since 2009 even in the midst of one of the worst recessions in U.S history

Very impressive Indie.  I'm curious, what is your take on gold right now?

Whatever Peter Schiff says, do the opposite. You should be good.

 

[cvballa]

OOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHH!  You are one of THOSE!

You mean:

- Wealthy enough to own a large SFR, valued in the 7 digits, in an exclusive neighborhood in Irvine
- Not desperate enough to be waiting for discounts on a $400,000 condo, in a failed community that has sat 95%+ vacant for 4 years because no one wants to live there.
- Has had their portfolio increase in value by 200% since 2009 even in the midst of one of the worst recessions in U.S history

You mean, one of those? Guilty as charged. ;D

And when did you buy this house?  I saw the bubble and rented instead and I know good values when I see it.  Your view is that CPW is a failed development cuz no one wants to live there which is VERY wrong.  I have talked to many people who like it, but also think the price is too high.  Its failed just like dozens of other local new developments during the crash.

And I highly doubt your portfolio is up 200% unless you shorted the hell out of everything

 

[frank69m]

Oh boy. This thread is gonna turn into another  2 Malibu NOFCB thread

 

[frank69m]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

 

[akim997]

cvBalla....  me thinks you need to recheck your facts...  since the S&P is up over 65% since March 6 2009 (local) bottom.  If you shorted "the market"... you'd be down...  t

to be up 200% howver is quite a feat, achieved by either individual stock picking or leverage... that or dumb luck (referred to as "foresight") that someone dumped a crap load into AAPL which has returned >300% over same time frame... 

ive been in investment management for almost 15 years.  History and experience has taught me that anytime you hear someone talk about how much they make and the excellent calls they had...  you should cover your ears, turn around and walk (or run) in the other direction...  but then again what do I know.  I don't have a million dollar home in an exclusive area...  just a dumpy townhome in the WI ghetto...  =( 

 

[cvballa]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

 

[cvballa]

cvBalla....  me thinks you need to recheck your facts...  since the S&P is up over 65% since March 6 2009 (local) bottom.  If you shorted "the market"... you'd be down...  t

to be up 200% howver is quite a feat, achieved by either individual stock picking or leverage... that or dumb luck (referred to as "foresight") that someone dumped a crap load into AAPL which has returned >300% over same time frame... 

ive been in investment management for almost 15 years.  History and experience has taught me that anytime you hear someone talk about how much they make and the excellent calls they had...  you should cover your ears, turn around and walk (or run) in the other direction...  but then again what do I know.  I don't have a million dollar home in an exclusive area...  just a dumpy townhome in the WI ghetto...  =(

I am an investment advisor as well.... im still in my 20s which is why I dont have a huge house.  But I was smart enough to see a bubble in the mid 2000s.  I agree that anyone bragging about huge gains like that are full of BS.  I didnt really pay attention to his time frame, but i knew it was short and the way he talks there is no way he knows what he is talking about when it comes to investing.  He might have a good job and be an expert in that area, but it takes years of experience and understanding of the market to get a 200% return in short order. It takes a lot more than blind pessimism. haha

 

[IndieDev]

Oh boy. This thread is gonna turn into another  2 Malibu NOFCB thread

You know, I thought about it, but I don't have the raw fury like I used to have on TalkIrvine. After slaying edhne, and NonFCB, those guys have never returned to the forum after the fundamental beating they took, and to be honest it's less entertaining without those type of posters hanging around.

So, you know what? I hope cvballa's dream does come true. CPW will magically be revitalized. Hundreds of urban hipsters, young professional executives, and high earners in general will buy up CPW (after a 15% price drop). The walkability score for the community will be off the charts! All these financially savvy, professional types will be strutting across Jamboree, on the pedestrian bridge no less, and hanging out with all the other cool urbanites at Starbucks, Houston's, and Fat Burger.

It'll be West LA, SF's Richmond District, and Seattle all in one, but cooler, and more Irvine!  8)

 

[akim997]

I agree on the general consensus regarding CPW...  I heard they almost named the community Aztek West after another great idea:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pontiac_Aztek

 

[frank69m]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

 

[usctrojancpa]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

I've said it before, but I'll say it again...I think we are going through a Japanese Lost Decade 2.0 where we will have low growth for the near term.  If the Japanese long term bonds could get and stay in the 1% to 2% range so can the US's. 

 

[so_scared]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

I've said it before, but I'll say it again...I think we are going through a Japanese Lost Decade 2.0 where we will have low growth for the near term.  If the Japanese long term bonds could get and stay in the 1% to 2% range so can the US's.

Curious USCT, what makes the US similar to Japan in the 1990s? Other than having a massive asset bubble that burst, are their demographics, cultures, current accounts, savings rates or political systems similar enough that the conditions are present for a similar outcome? Is the US's federal reserve's response similar to the BOJ's response so that the conclusion would be the same? Was then the yen the world's reserve currency at the time?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I've asked the same question about all the comparisons between Japan and the US... it takes more than just a housing bubble to draw that line.

 

[Nous]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

I've said it before, but I'll say it again...I think we are going through a Japanese Lost Decade 2.0 where we will have low growth for the near term.  If the Japanese long term bonds could get and stay in the 1% to 2% range so can the US's.

Curious USCT, what makes the US similar to Japan in the 1990s? Other than having a massive asset bubble that burst, are their demographics, cultures, current accounts, savings rates or political systems similar enough that the conditions are present for a similar outcome? Is the US's federal reserve's response similar to the BOJ's response so that the conclusion would be the same? Was then the yen the world's reserve currency at the time?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)

Maybe it is just me, but that reads a lot like what the US has been doing...

 

[so_scared]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

I've said it before, but I'll say it again...I think we are going through a Japanese Lost Decade 2.0 where we will have low growth for the near term.  If the Japanese long term bonds could get and stay in the 1% to 2% range so can the US's.

Curious USCT, what makes the US similar to Japan in the 1990s? Other than having a massive asset bubble that burst, are their demographics, cultures, current accounts, savings rates or political systems similar enough that the conditions are present for a similar outcome? Is the US's federal reserve's response similar to the BOJ's response so that the conclusion would be the same? Was then the yen the world's reserve currency at the time?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)

Maybe it is just me, but that reads a lot like what the US has been doing...

Major differences,
corporate balance sheets
big company dominated economy
export driven econ with limited domestic market just as other asian tigers started to really challenge exports
banking system as majority/dominant source of funding for biz
a postal system that acted as japan's largest bank
essentially one political party
culturally not accepting of immigrant labor force, even if skilled even as its own work force ages and shrinks each and every year.


Doesn't mean that US won't go through same, but there are some major differences.
US went through major banking and real estate bubble of its own in 90's (ie S&L) crisis, with massive banking damage and RE prices dropping 50% or more, yet it didn't go through the "lost decade" and instead had strong economy throughout late 90's, inflating another stock market bubble.

We might continue to cycle through one asset class bubble to burst to another bubble cycle for quite a while according to Bill Gross as long as the world is flush in savings/capital from the massive savings from the new middle class in emerging markets. We will see....