Central Park West thoughts?

[usctrojancpa]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

I've said it before, but I'll say it again...I think we are going through a Japanese Lost Decade 2.0 where we will have low growth for the near term.  If the Japanese long term bonds could get and stay in the 1% to 2% range so can the US's.

Curious USCT, what makes the US similar to Japan in the 1990s? Other than having a massive asset bubble that burst, are their demographics, cultures, current accounts, savings rates or political systems similar enough that the conditions are present for a similar outcome? Is the US's federal reserve's response similar to the BOJ's response so that the conclusion would be the same? Was then the yen the world's reserve currency at the time?

I think we will have slow growth for years because of one main reason (which Japan has been dealing with)...DE-LEVERAGING both on the consumer side and state and federal side.  Those two things will limit job and wage growth which will keep inflation in check.  The unemployment rate is too high in the mind of the Fed and there is a lot of slack (i.e. excess capicity) on the supply side.  These two factors will enable the Fed to stick with the low rates that they have now for years to come.  The BOJ actually raised rates a bit too early in the late 90s which sent Japan back into a recession...Ben will not allow that to happen on his watch.  Also, I believe that many of the lareg banks are zombie banks just like their Japanese counter parts.  The banks still have a bunch of bad debt on their books that will take years and years to clean up.  The foreclosure mess probably won't be squared away from at least 5 years from now with the speed at which the banks are foreclosing on homes.  I'm not saying it will happen, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the 10-year bond yield go down to around 1.50% within the next 12 months (especially if we get a double dip recession).  There are more similarities than there are differences between the Japanese lost decade.

 

[usctrojancpa]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

I've said it before, but I'll say it again...I think we are going through a Japanese Lost Decade 2.0 where we will have low growth for the near term.  If the Japanese long term bonds could get and stay in the 1% to 2% range so can the US's.

Curious USCT, what makes the US similar to Japan in the 1990s? Other than having a massive asset bubble that burst, are their demographics, cultures, current accounts, savings rates or political systems similar enough that the conditions are present for a similar outcome? Is the US's federal reserve's response similar to the BOJ's response so that the conclusion would be the same? Was then the yen the world's reserve currency at the time?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)

Maybe it is just me, but that reads a lot like what the US has been doing...

Major differences,
corporate balance sheets
big company dominated economy
export driven econ with limited domestic market just as other asian tigers started to really challenge exports
banking system as majority/dominant source of funding for biz
a postal system that acted as japan's largest bank
essentially one political party
culturally not accepting of immigrant labor force, even if skilled even as its own work force ages and shrinks each and every year.


Doesn't mean that US won't go through same, but there are some major differences.
US went through major banking and real estate bubble of its own in 90's (ie S&L) crisis, with massive banking damage and RE prices dropping 50% or more, yet it didn't go through the "lost decade" and instead had strong economy throughout late 90's, inflating another stock market bubble.

We might continue to cycle through one asset class bubble to burst to another bubble cycle for quite a while according to Bill Gross as long as the world is flush in savings/capital from the massive savings from the new middle class in emerging markets. We will see....

Yes, corporations have de-leveraged and cleaned up their balance sheets and improved their operating margins but customers and the state & federal govts haven't done so yet.  Big companies DO NOT dominate the economy, consumers account for 2/3 of economic activity in the US and the small and mid sized companies are the ones who drive job growth.

 

[cvballa]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

HAHA... def not.  So cuz gold is at 1800 an oz means it isnt a bubble?  Did you say the same thing when home prices were up 16% in 2005?  Valuations determine if there is a bubble, not recent price moves.  One great example is that gold is now worth more than platinum which is absurd.

Long term bonds are also terrible.  Tech stocks continue to be the most attractive, particularly software and IT companies.  There is more I could discuss, but im not going to do that here.

The number one thing people need to realize about our economy is that home building produces a TON of income and jobs.  We are at historic lows for home building which is the main driver of unemployement right now.  When we start producing a million homes again we will be doing ok, once we get back to long term average of 1.6 million homes we will be doing well.  Currently we are producing about 600k homes a year.

This doom and gloom crap is all BS.... we arent Japan

 

[usctrojancpa]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

HAHA... def not.  So cuz gold is at 1800 an oz means it isnt a bubble?  Did you say the same thing when home prices were up 16% in 2005?  Valuations determine if there is a bubble, not recent price moves.  One great example is that gold is now worth more than platinum which is absurd.

Long term bonds are also terrible.  Tech stocks continue to be the most attractive, particularly software and IT companies.  There is more I could discuss, but im not going to do that here.

The number one thing people need to realize about our economy is that home building produces a TON of income and jobs.  We are at historic lows for home building which is the main driver of unemployement right now.  When we start producing a million homes again we will be doing ok, once we get back to long term average of 1.6 million homes we will be doing well.  Currently we are producing about 600k homes a year.

This doom and gloom crap is all BS.... we arent Japan

It's gonna be a long time until we get back to building 1.6 million homes...there's too much supply out there in most markets.  To say that we have a good chance of going through what Japan is with slow growth is being realistic, not doom and gloom.  Doom and gloom is predicting a long painful recession.  We just have too many headwinds to have GDP grow more than 2-3% per year for a while.

 

[IndieDev]

Water, potatoes, guns, and ammo. Everything else is just trinkets and paper.

 

[cvballa]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

HAHA... def not.  So cuz gold is at 1800 an oz means it isnt a bubble?  Did you say the same thing when home prices were up 16% in 2005?  Valuations determine if there is a bubble, not recent price moves.  One great example is that gold is now worth more than platinum which is absurd.

Long term bonds are also terrible.  Tech stocks continue to be the most attractive, particularly software and IT companies.  There is more I could discuss, but im not going to do that here.

The number one thing people need to realize about our economy is that home building produces a TON of income and jobs.  We are at historic lows for home building which is the main driver of unemployement right now.  When we start producing a million homes again we will be doing ok, once we get back to long term average of 1.6 million homes we will be doing well.  Currently we are producing about 600k homes a year.

This doom and gloom crap is all BS.... we arent Japan

It's gonna be a long time until we get back to building 1.6 million homes...there's too much supply out there in most markets.  To say that we have a good chance of going through what Japan is with slow growth is being realistic, not doom and gloom.  Doom and gloom is predicting a long painful recession.  We just have too many headwinds to have GDP grow more than 2-3% per year for a while.

I agree. I am not saying we will get back to 1.6 million soon, but if you look at new home inventory at historic lows and the demand for apartments rising, the trend is clearly positive (remember new homes arent always SFR or condos, they include apartments).

This economy is being held back by the housing market.  In a typical recovery housing accounts for 20% of the growth, currently it is only contributing 4%.  This economy is being held up by a cheap dollar and low interest rates.  When we work through the existing housing inventory there will be a tail wind that will more than counteract the deleveraging.  Now we wont hit 5% GDP growth soon, but if congress can quit killing confidence in this country we can be at 3% by the end of next year.

 

[cvballa]

Oh, and I just got an email that said they are releasing a new phase at Belvedere.  I guess the top floor which are more expensive than the other floors.  Looks to be about 5% more than other floors.

 

[akula1488]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

HAHA... def not.  So cuz gold is at 1800 an oz means it isnt a bubble?  Did you say the same thing when home prices were up 16% in 2005?  Valuations determine if there is a bubble, not recent price moves.  One great example is that gold is now worth more than platinum which is absurd.

Long term bonds are also terrible.  Tech stocks continue to be the most attractive, particularly software and IT companies.  There is more I could discuss, but im not going to do that here.

The number one thing people need to realize about our economy is that home building produces a TON of income and jobs.  We are at historic lows for home building which is the main driver of unemployement right now.  When we start producing a million homes again we will be doing ok, once we get back to long term average of 1.6 million homes we will be doing well.  Currently we are producing about 600k homes a year.

This doom and gloom crap is all BS.... we arent Japan

It's gonna be a long time until we get back to building 1.6 million homes...there's too much supply out there in most markets.  To say that we have a good chance of going through what Japan is with slow growth is being realistic, not doom and gloom.  Doom and gloom is predicting a long painful recession.  We just have too many headwinds to have GDP grow more than 2-3% per year for a while.

I agree. I am not saying we will get back to 1.6 million soon, but if you look at new home inventory at historic lows and the demand for apartments rising, the trend is clearly positive (remember new homes arent always SFR or condos, they include apartments).

This economy is being held back by the housing market.  In a typical recovery housing accounts for 20% of the growth, currently it is only contributing 4%.  This economy is being held up by a cheap dollar and low interest rates.  When we work through the existing housing inventory there will be a tail wind that will more than counteract the deleveraging.  Now we wont hit 5% GDP growth soon, but if congress can quit killing confidence in this country we can be at 3% by the end of next year.

how can housing recover if the economy adds zero net jobs?
No new jobs = no new income = no increase in the formation of households = no new demand for housing

 

[akim997]

please move this to the economic discussion thread...

 

[IndieDev]

how can housing recover if the economy adds zero net jobs?
No new jobs = no new income = no increase in the formation of households = no new demand for housing

That makes a lot of sense, and is a fundamentally sound way to look at the relationship between housing, and unemployment.

But you know, cvballa did say he was a "financial advisor"! 

 

[rkp]

Water, potatoes, guns, and ammo. Everything else is just trinkets and paper.

where are you storing the potatoes?  in your 7 figure house?

i appreciate a lot of your thoughtful responses and have valued your advice but between the nonsense comments and the serious short man syndrome, you are on verge of being PR from IHB in my book.  almost every thread you bust out your stock performance, rich house, and how smarter you are than everyone else. 

you are making predictions just like the rest of us and no one can guarantee anything. 

 

[so_scared]

Water, potatoes, guns, and ammo. Everything else is just trinkets and paper.

where are you storing the potatoes?  in your 7 figure house?

i appreciate a lot of your thoughtful responses and have valued your advice but between the nonsense comments and the serious short man syndrome, you are on verge of being PR from IHB in my book.  almost every thread you bust out your stock performance, rich house, and how smarter you are than everyone else. 

you are making predictions just like the rest of us and no one can guarantee anything.

I would vote for AZ. willing to say anything to win an argument. Then when someone corners him, just talks about something completely unrelated or zombies.  PR is cocky but he doesn't call everyone who disagrees with him idiots.

What do you think IHO? Since you seem to tangle with both az/indie on a regular basis.

 

[cvballa]

As for it becoming necessary to burn the entire complex down, that may be an overstatement, but wait 18 months when the U.S economy has crumbled, the dollar is worthless, and martial law has taken over the country. CPW may become a squatter shelter for rebels, and insurgents. Then we'll talk about what is necessary to burn down or not.

I like your thinking Indy. Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and guns. I'm doing that to a certain extent. You think we can live on low interest and deficits forever

haha.... sickening..... good luck.... keep buying the hype.... see where that gets you

buying what hype? gold is over 1800 and counting...So as an investment advisor, what advise are you giving them now? Long term bonds? lol

HAHA... def not.  So cuz gold is at 1800 an oz means it isnt a bubble?  Did you say the same thing when home prices were up 16% in 2005?  Valuations determine if there is a bubble, not recent price moves.  One great example is that gold is now worth more than platinum which is absurd.

Long term bonds are also terrible.  Tech stocks continue to be the most attractive, particularly software and IT companies.  There is more I could discuss, but im not going to do that here.

The number one thing people need to realize about our economy is that home building produces a TON of income and jobs.  We are at historic lows for home building which is the main driver of unemployement right now.  When we start producing a million homes again we will be doing ok, once we get back to long term average of 1.6 million homes we will be doing well.  Currently we are producing about 600k homes a year.

This doom and gloom crap is all BS.... we arent Japan

It's gonna be a long time until we get back to building 1.6 million homes...there's too much supply out there in most markets.  To say that we have a good chance of going through what Japan is with slow growth is being realistic, not doom and gloom.  Doom and gloom is predicting a long painful recession.  We just have too many headwinds to have GDP grow more than 2-3% per year for a while.

I agree. I am not saying we will get back to 1.6 million soon, but if you look at new home inventory at historic lows and the demand for apartments rising, the trend is clearly positive (remember new homes arent always SFR or condos, they include apartments).

This economy is being held back by the housing market.  In a typical recovery housing accounts for 20% of the growth, currently it is only contributing 4%.  This economy is being held up by a cheap dollar and low interest rates.  When we work through the existing housing inventory there will be a tail wind that will more than counteract the deleveraging.  Now we wont hit 5% GDP growth soon, but if congress can quit killing confidence in this country we can be at 3% by the end of next year.

how can housing recover if the economy adds zero net jobs?
No new jobs = no new income = no increase in the formation of households = no new demand for housing

Households are still being formed, albeit at a historically low rate, which is the reason the recovery has been so weak.  At low enough prices investors and renters who have a steady job and good credit find buying more attractive.  It will be slow and the white house needs to stop putting off foreclosures, not delaying the inevitable.

 

[test]

Water, potatoes, guns, and ammo. Everything else is just trinkets and paper.

where are you storing the potatoes?  in your 7 figure house?

i appreciate a lot of your thoughtful responses and have valued your advice but between the nonsense comments and the serious short man syndrome, you are on verge of being PR from IHB in my book.  almost every thread you bust out your stock performance, rich house, and how smarter you are than everyone else. 

you are making predictions just like the rest of us and no one can guarantee anything. 

First he claimed to live in Malibu.  Now he claims to live in a "7 figure" home in Irvine.  I bet he's really just a 40 year old virgin living in his grandma's basement in Santa Ana.

 

[cvballa]

Water, potatoes, guns, and ammo. Everything else is just trinkets and paper.

where are you storing the potatoes?  in your 7 figure house?

i appreciate a lot of your thoughtful responses and have valued your advice but between the nonsense comments and the serious short man syndrome, you are on verge of being PR from IHB in my book.  almost every thread you bust out your stock performance, rich house, and how smarter you are than everyone else. 

you are making predictions just like the rest of us and no one can guarantee anything. 

First he claimed to live in Malibu.  Now he claims to live in a "7 figure" home in Irvine.  I bet he's really just a 40 year old virgin living in his grandma's basement in Santa Ana.

Likely

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I doubt AZ and Indie are the same person.

Although they use similar tactics, they have different styles and tone... and PR is definitely another person altogether.

But I think it will serve TI better if we try to stick to discussing the topics and opinions, and not the members.

Even though we may disagree on many things... I always believe we can handle talking about them in a civil manner. While snark may be entertaining... it's sometimes better to know when to put that icicle gun away.

 

[shadax]

I doubt AZ and Indie are the same person.

Although they use similar tactics, they have different styles and tone... and PR is definitely another person altogether.

But I think it will serve TI better if we try to stick to discussing the topics and opinions, and not the members.

Even though we may disagree on many things... I always believe we can handle talking about them in a civil manner. While snark may be entertaining... it's sometimes better to know when to put that icicle gun away.

This.  The pissing contests are pathetic.

 

[IndieDev]

I'm just too well liked, and popular on this forum. 

 

[test]

According to redfin the latest unit sold in CPW is a 3 bed condo for $740,000 at $435/sqft.  Values have held up pretty well.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/99-Lennox-92612/home/17472906

 

[shadax]

According to redfin the latest unit sold in CPW is a 3 bed condo for $740,000 at $435/sqft.  Values have held up pretty well.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/99-Lennox-92612/home/17472906

Aren't these in the Santa Ana Unified School District?