What the "Dow" is happening?
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This is another one of trumps gems from the summer , right around the time I exited equity beta in my acts and the time the MAGA folks on this forum were cheerleading everything and painting the forum with wall to wall economic posts everyday . Seems like an era ago now
Trump (8/30/18) ? ?The news from the Financial Markets is even better than anticipated. For all of you that have made a fortune in the markets, or seen your 401k?s rise beyond your wildest expectations, more good news is coming! ?
Yes , recession in 2019 seems like a real possibility now (market implied odds are 60 percent ) . Not sure about impeachment though ... witness the recent cave in by the house over that stupid wall (or is it ?slatted ? fence or whatever)
Trump (8/30/18) ? ?The news from the Financial Markets is even better than anticipated. For all of you that have made a fortune in the markets, or seen your 401k?s rise beyond your wildest expectations, more good news is coming! ?
Yes , recession in 2019 seems like a real possibility now (market implied odds are 60 percent ) . Not sure about impeachment though ... witness the recent cave in by the house over that stupid wall (or is it ?slatted ? fence or whatever)
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
zubs said:
I dunno... as crazy as our POTUS is, they couldn't get Bill (although more of a scandal than what Trump is being accused of) so I have doubts they will be able to get the Tangster.
Can tweets be used as incriminating evidence?
Irvinecommuter
New member
irvinehomeowner said:
The things that Clinton was accused of is a lot less severity than Trump.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
FCC and DOJ got Elon to resign his post as Chairman after proven his tweets manipulated Testla stocks price.
For those interested ? after exiting equities in August this year , I have added some allocation now ( proportionally , If I sold 100 percent of my equity allocation in August , adding 25 percent now) .
Starting w SPY for now ? remember market needs to give indication of stability before dabbling into individual stocks .
Well aware that we may see a further sell off from here before we find the bottom , but I just don?t see it happening in a big way unless we are actually heading into negative earnings yoy growth next year - which I don?t think is happening . That being said, I do have a tight stop loss here of 5 percent to test that hypothesis .
Starting w SPY for now ? remember market needs to give indication of stability before dabbling into individual stocks .
Well aware that we may see a further sell off from here before we find the bottom , but I just don?t see it happening in a big way unless we are actually heading into negative earnings yoy growth next year - which I don?t think is happening . That being said, I do have a tight stop loss here of 5 percent to test that hypothesis .
paperboyNC
New member
qwerty said:
I never sold unfortunately, but took a good chunk of cash laying around and bought SPY this morning.
aquabliss
Well-known member
This rally is bitter sweet. I almost want us to hang around in bear market territory for 12ish months just to get it over with and move on. If we jump back up to new highs in Q1 2019, I'm sure the bear market is in for a not-so-nice rest of the year. Weird logic, I know.
Irvinecommuter
New member
aquabliss said:
Dead Cat bounces are the dying gasps of the bulls. No one wants to admit that the market is going down.
If anything, the 1000 point gain shows that emotions, not fundamentals, are controlling. Time to get out.
Irvinecommuter said:
Bear market rallies are a distinct feature of a market going through a bigger correction
But the kicker is - you will ONLY know that in hindsight AFTER the fact . And someone will come along on this forum claiming they knew it was going to happen all along.
The deal is this - market was oversold by every measure at least in my book and I saw a chance to get back in if it is indeed a continuation of the long term bull market trend line
If it is a indeed break , you still want to have dry powder available to invest - hence my 25 percent comment
Also worthwhile to move your stop loss progressively higher as you make profits so that you lock in gains or at least break even
Irvinecommuter
New member
fortune11 said:
Trying to figure out if I want to cash out my savings or get tax breaks for my losses.
aquabliss said:
That can happen if we have a 2000-2002 like market behavior with several bear rallies in between punctuated by fed rate cuts . But remember , market is a lot more ?pull forward-y? now and what used to transpire over months tends to get priced in days . Hence the big 20 percent correction , a lot quicker than the 2014-15 timeframe
Another tip I have free of financial advisor commissions ? look at high yield or junk bond funds ? if oil continues climbing and fed blinks which they likely will , you are setup for a nice 8 to 9 percent return there .
All this assumes we are not headed into a full blown recession ? I believe we are not . In fact this market sell off may have extended the cycle by a couple more years.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
fortune11 said:
Good call Fortune. Your screen name reflects your wealth
Irvinecommuter
New member
Kings said:
LOL...seriously, Bagdad Bob has nothing on Trumpers.
Loco_local
Active member
Kings said:
That SSO isn't looking so good this morning. I blame the Fed and Obama.