What the "Dow" is happening?

[fortune11]

I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.

I would go up to 3 year . Even if they hike tomorrow , Fed is not going anywhere next year with oil now at 45 !!  Inflation , my foot !

Many of the ?rising rates? trades of recent past will now reverse .

For those who use financial advisors , expect a switcheroo now using terms like ?moderating growth? , ?soft landing? , ?end to US exceptionalism? , etc etc. 

also expect many to start baiting you into going into emerging markets now as ?rates may remain low for the foreseeable future?

How does selling bonds early work?  What level of loss do you take?

Not sure I understand - do you mean how does shorting treasuries work ?  You do it via futures or paying interest rate  swaps . But individuals generally cannot do that , institutions can . You could buy a retail fund which does that , but not without its own risk .

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.

I would go up to 3 year . Even if they hike tomorrow , Fed is not going anywhere next year with oil now at 45 !!  Inflation , my foot !

Many of the ?rising rates? trades of recent past will now reverse .

For those who use financial advisors , expect a switcheroo now using terms like ?moderating growth? , ?soft landing? , ?end to US exceptionalism? , etc etc. 

also expect many to start baiting you into going into emerging markets now as ?rates may remain low for the foreseeable future?

How does selling bonds early work?  What level of loss do you take?

Not sure I understand - do you mean how does shorting treasuries work ?  You do it via futures or paying interest rate  swaps . But individuals generally cannot do that , institutions can . You could buy a retail fund which does that , but not without its own risk .

I believe you essentially sell your bonds to someone else and take a discount.   
https://finance.zacks.com/penalty-selling-bond-early-8646.html

 

[fortune11]

I think long term treasury bonds is going to do very well next year.

Rather do the short term ones...3 months to a year.

I would go up to 3 year . Even if they hike tomorrow , Fed is not going anywhere next year with oil now at 45 !!  Inflation , my foot !

Many of the ?rising rates? trades of recent past will now reverse .

For those who use financial advisors , expect a switcheroo now using terms like ?moderating growth? , ?soft landing? , ?end to US exceptionalism? , etc etc. 

also expect many to start baiting you into going into emerging markets now as ?rates may remain low for the foreseeable future?

How does selling bonds early work?  What level of loss do you take?

Not sure I understand - do you mean how does shorting treasuries work ?  You do it via futures or paying interest rate  swaps . But individuals generally cannot do that , institutions can . You could buy a retail fund which does that , but not without its own risk .

I believe you essentially sell your bonds to someone else and take a discount.   
https://finance.zacks.com/penalty-selling-bond-early-8646.html

Only if rates are higher . If they are lower , then could end up selling at a gain .

 

[fortune11]

Shutdown don?t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

 

[eyephone]

The fed raised the rates..

 

[eyephone]

Run for the hills. I told you this sh#t ain?t going to be pretty...

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Run for the hills. I told you this sh#t ain?t going to be pretty...

Shakin? And bakin? Baby. Will see who been swim naked in the near future.

 

[B2FiNiTY]

Still in my bunker. Coast is not clear.

 

[Kings]

Shutdown don?t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side? 

 

[fortune11]

Look at the treasury market about to get inverted

Like I said ? we may sleepwalk into a FED induced recession

 

[fortune11]

Shutdown don?t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side? 

That right there is the problem

I completely ignore politics when it comes to money and finances .  My personal goal is to try to answer , not ?what should happen ? but ? what will happen ? . This is why I sold my stocks in summer 2018 (and told everyone I was doing that ) and haven?t gotten back in yet . I have been a big proponent of investing in fixed income since then, especially short dated treasuries and muni bonds

Re Trump ?- I do think The fed has their head in the sand right now . I was actually expecting trump to walk in there to the Powell presser and say ?jay , you are fired ?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Shutdown don?t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side? 

That right there is the problem

I completely ignore politics when it comes to money and finances .  My personal goal is to try to answer , not ?what should happen ? but ? what will happen ? . This is why I sold my stocks in summer 2018 (and told everyone I was doing that ) and haven?t gotten back in yet . I have been a big proponent of investing in fixed income since then, especially short dated treasuries and muni bonds

Re Trump ?- I do think The fed has their head in the sand right now . I was actually expecting trump to walk in there to the Powell presser and say ?jay , you are fired ?

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

 

[fortune11]

Shutdown don?t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side? 

That right there is the problem

I completely ignore politics when it comes to money and finances .  My personal goal is to try to answer , not ?what should happen ? but ? what will happen ? . This is why I sold my stocks in summer 2018 (and told everyone I was doing that ) and haven?t gotten back in yet . I have been a big proponent of investing in fixed income since then, especially short dated treasuries and muni bonds

Re Trump ?- I do think The fed has their head in the sand right now . I was actually expecting trump to walk in there to the Powell presser and say ?jay , you are fired ?

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

Yes , but Powell let his ego take over . How is that better ?

If he was really rational he would look at this independently as an objective observer .

I do think they are getting boxed into a corner and next rate Move could be DOWN not UP

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

Yes , but Powell let his ego take over . How is that better ?

If he was really rational he would look at this independently as an objective observer .

I do think they are getting boxed into a corner and next rate Move could be DOWN not UP
[/quote]

Fed has always been much more worried about an overheated economy than a cooling one.

TBF...it's not just Powell.  Policy is a vote by the board.

 

[fortune11]

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

Yes , but Powell let his ego take over . How is that better ?

If he was really rational he would look at this independently as an objective observer .

I do think they are getting boxed into a corner and next rate Move could be DOWN not UP

Fed has always been much more worried about an overheated economy than a cooling one.

TBF...it's not just Powell.  Policy is a vote by the board.
[/quote]

The board is heavily influenced by the chairman who has the final say and can veto decisions . Kinda like your ceo at work - everyone s opinion is valuable but he is the ultimate decider

 

[Irvinecommuter]

The board is heavily influenced by the chairman who has the final say and can veto decisions . Kinda like your ceo at work - everyone s opinion is valuable but he is the ultimate decider

Maybe but no dissents at all.

The Fed increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a new band of 2.25%-2.5%, putting the Fed funds rate at its highest level since the spring of 2008. All ten voting members of the FOMC voted in favor of Wednesday?s decision.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/preview-feds-last-monetary-policy-announcement-2018-155802273.html

 

[Kings]

trumpy bear (market) predicted this!

 

[Irvinecommuter]

trumpy bear (market) predicted this!

What?  Everyone predicted this...freaking even Jim Cramer predicted it.

.25 basis is a good compromise.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Shutdown don?t think matters as much

But Fed does a LOT

market is basically staring down Fed right now , daring them to hike ...

Just like I said ..

And the fed did not blink .. tape is now broken

Looks like Powell lives in an alternative universe

finally on trump's side? 

That right there is the problem

I completely ignore politics when it comes to money and finances .  My personal goal is to try to answer , not ?what should happen ? but ? what will happen ? . This is why I sold my stocks in summer 2018 (and told everyone I was doing that ) and haven?t gotten back in yet . I have been a big proponent of investing in fixed income since then, especially short dated treasuries and muni bonds

Re Trump ?- I do think The fed has their head in the sand right now . I was actually expecting trump to walk in there to the Powell presser and say ?jay , you are fired ?

Trump's antics pushes Powell to rise rates just to show that he is independent.

Partially, I think that's true. But the real reasons for pushing rate higher is because data suggested or showed that rate and the US economy can still stands on further rate increase. There is just too much funny money that were given away to corporates America. And if stimulation needed by lowering rate, the FED has rooms to do it when US economy struggles. Right now, it will go higher and need to go higher.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Partially, I think that's true. But the real reasons for pushing rate higher is because data suggested or showed that rate and the US economy can still stands on further rate increase. There is just too much funny money that were given away to corporates America. And if stimulation needed by lowering rate, the FED has rooms to do it when US economy struggles. Right now, it will go higher and need to go higher.

Yeah.  0.25 basis adjustment is not much at all.  GDP is still looking to be between 2 and 2.5 with potential for inflation.