What the "Dow" is happening?

eyephone said:
Cares said:
morekaos said:
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.
https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI

https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI
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Treading close there on your prediction right now. I guess +100 is still up for the year.
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Don?t forget he said it?s healthy.  ;)
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Yes it is a low fat , low carb and high protein market  . I just need to add the word ?paleo ? to it to make it complete
 
eyephone said:
Cares said:
morekaos said:
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.
https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI

https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI
Click to expand...

Treading close there on your prediction right now. I guess +100 is still up for the year.
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Don?t forget he said it?s healthy.  ;)
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Don't worry I can see the spin. If the Dow doesn't perform well, it is because Democrats took the House and consumer confidence is low!
 
Cares said:
Don't worry I can see the spin. If the Dow doesn't perform well, it is because Democrats took the House and consumer confidence is low!
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Too lazy to find them but he didn't believe that Trump/GOP would lose in the midterms...well maybe he doesn't believe it still.
 
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that ?

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED
 
fortune11 said:
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that ?

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED
Click to expand...
And how long would this last? I guess at some point, 2600 would become ceiling
 
OCLuvr said:
fortune11 said:
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that ?

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED
Click to expand...
And how long would this last? I guess at some point, 2600 would become ceiling
Click to expand...

My guess is like 2500/22000/6000.
 
OCLuvr said:
fortune11 said:
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that ?

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors . It has worked very well for me last few years
The only force that can change this range now is the FED
Click to expand...
And how long would this last? I guess at some point, 2600 would become ceiling
Click to expand...

Well no one knows the future . These are the best estimates based upon what I see with earnings and multiples

Recall my decision to get out of the market in late summer . And then when I said not to panic in October when it fell close to 2600.  I still think no one should panic at around these levels in aggregate . Also look at my point about investment horizons in one of the housing threads .

If fed continues to be to tone deaf and continues hiking aggressively next year into what is clearly a cyclical slowdown , multiples shrink further
 
We have past -500 on the dow.

Troubling in that the drop is being led by different sectors every day (today it was Target and retail). 

We will see what happens but bad timing for business for people's 401K to fall 10% just before the holiday season.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
We have past -500 on the dow.

Troubling in that the drop is being led by different sectors every day (today it was Target and retail). 

We will see what happens but bad timing for business for people's 401K to fall 10% just before the holiday season.
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Puts on HD, broke the neckline of the double top.

Volatility is probably going to inflate options prices and it might take a while to come down. Bought June ditm puts which didn't have much premium in them.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
We will see what happens but bad timing for business for people's 401K to fall 10% just before the holiday season.
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Why is that? It's a long way away before I dip into my 401k, so not sure why a 10% drop before the holidays is going to affect businesses. I'm still going to shop the same way I did previous years.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Irvinecommuter said:
We will see what happens but bad timing for business for people's 401K to fall 10% just before the holiday season.
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Why is that? It's a long way away before I dip into my 401k, so not sure why a 10% drop before the holidays is going to affect businesses. I'm still going to shop the same way I did previous years.
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You may but watching your portfolio drop by 10 to 20% makes people nervous.  It may not be reasonable but when markets go in the margins...reasonableness is usually out the door.

Here?s the problem: A market fall itself could hobble consumer spending, a chief growth engine, if it deepens, undercutting the healthy economy. That could create a toxic feedback loop between stocks and the economy.

The link between the two is particularly strong because sharply rising stock and home prices have juiced consumer spending since the recession ended in 2009, a dynamic known as the wealth effect, according to a new study by Moody?s Analytics, Visa and Equifax. As a result, even a partial reversal of the 9-year-old bull market, if it?s sustained, could prompt many people to pull back. Consumption makes up 70% of economic activity.

?The economy is tied at the hip to the stock market,? says Mark Zandi chief economist of Moody?s Analytics. Even a 10% market retreat would noticeably curtail spending and economic growth, he says.

?If we were to see a sustained bigger drop (of about 20%), that would really sap a lot of the spending? that has fueled the recovery, says Visa Chief Economist Wayne Best. ?While that?s not the most likely scenario, it certainly bears watching.? The Wilshire 500 stock index was down 4.8% from its late January peak at Thursday's market close despite a rebound in recent days.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/02/15/markets-juiced-spending-they-douse/335396002/
 
I should paste my comments on time horizon and psychology from the housing thread here . Don?t know how to .

But in brief ?- most people think they are long term investors when in reality they are traders with short term horizons that extend when market goes against them ? ?I am in it for the long term? is one of the excuses people give themselves when market sells off and they find themselves too long

Doesn?t apply to everyone of course - don?t jump on this , there are exceptions . But ?most ? ...
 
I'm lazy... don't even remember my logins to my 401k dashboard.

The only time I check the balance is when we bought our house and when we refi'd.

#LetItGrow
 
fortune11 said:
I have said before several times here and it has been playing out exactly like that ?

2600/2650 is your floor 

2800/2850 is your ceiling

Lot of beneath the surface rotation and violence within different sub sectors .

The only force that can change this range now is the FED
Click to expand...

Range holding as expected ... don?t chase it here beyond 2800 though

all the carnage in credit , fixed income and closed end funds better opportunities may lie there instead
 
Dow off 700 today...basically the market is irrational now.  Worried that Powell will raise rates too fast because economy is not that strong...but also worried that the economy is not that strong. 

Reacting to the inverse yield curve that pretty much everyone saw coming weeks ago.

 
LOL...it's not because housing is becoming overheated and unaffordable due to the SALT reduction and higher interest rates.

Shares of home builders took a broad beating Tuesday, after luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. confirmed investors? fears by saying it witnessed the housing market ?soften further? in November, especially in California, because of reduced affordability and fewer foreign buyers.

In addition to rising interest rates and ?significant? price appreciation the past few years giving buyers reason for pause, Toll Brothers TOL, -1.13% also blamed ?well-publicized reports? of a housing slowdown for having a negative impact on buyer sentiment.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...-media-for-further-market-slowdown-2018-12-04
 
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