Tesla Solar Panels Price Cut

someguy said:
daedalus said:
someguy said:
In the future...


Current government incentives...

Currently the economics...

We'll start to see the results of these policies with grid instability soon...

See, I don't think we disagree.  And when I say "incentives" I don't just mean government or monetary incentives.  An increasingly unstable electric grid is, by itself, an incentive to have storage.  I'm trying to make my best guess as to how it all unfolds.  Should I try to wait for an increased monetary/tax installation incentive, and will I qualify, or is the 26% current incentive the best I can get, and will future increases in storage demand (due to an unstable grid) and higher costs of storage (due to limited supply) drive up costs to outweigh any increased incentives, and will future net metering rules change to favor overproduction?  I think they will have to start throwing a larger bone to those who can provide power to the grid when the sun is down, and that requires storage.

The analysis paralysis has already cost me, as the price of the biggest Tesla system I would get has gone up $4k since I started thinking about it.

Given the uncertainty of future rates, utility company policy,  and government incentives, determining the perfect time to buy a residential battery system is as clear as mud.  Perhaps if you want it and can afford it, then go for it, don't look back, enjoy the peace of mind of battery back up and enjoy tinkering with all the other features.  If you're not sure, maybe wait 6 months and revisit then?  Good luck!

Yeah the battery didn't make much sense to me at this point so I passed on it.  I rather buy a natural gas powered generator to deal with brown/black outs.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
someguy said:
daedalus said:
someguy said:
In the future...


Current government incentives...

Currently the economics...

We'll start to see the results of these policies with grid instability soon...

See, I don't think we disagree.  And when I say "incentives" I don't just mean government or monetary incentives.  An increasingly unstable electric grid is, by itself, an incentive to have storage.  I'm trying to make my best guess as to how it all unfolds.  Should I try to wait for an increased monetary/tax installation incentive, and will I qualify, or is the 26% current incentive the best I can get, and will future increases in storage demand (due to an unstable grid) and higher costs of storage (due to limited supply) drive up costs to outweigh any increased incentives, and will future net metering rules change to favor overproduction?  I think they will have to start throwing a larger bone to those who can provide power to the grid when the sun is down, and that requires storage.

The analysis paralysis has already cost me, as the price of the biggest Tesla system I would get has gone up $4k since I started thinking about it.

Given the uncertainty of future rates, utility company policy,  and government incentives, determining the perfect time to buy a residential battery system is as clear as mud.  Perhaps if you want it and can afford it, then go for it, don't look back, enjoy the peace of mind of battery back up and enjoy tinkering with all the other features.  If you're not sure, maybe wait 6 months and revisit then?  Good luck!

Yeah the battery didn't make much sense to me at this point so I passed on it.  I rather buy a natural gas powered generator to deal with brown/black outs.

Good choice imo :)
 
Part of the equation for me is the usefulness in a disaster.  I kind of think like momopi in this regard.  In a disaster situation, it's possible to lose utilities, both electric and gas, for weeks on end.  I have food and water stores and portable generators.  But solar would be so much better if I decide to stay put.  I can fix my stuff if it gets damaged, and a solar/battery system is quiet and less likely to be stolen.  Aren't the home generators at least as pricey as a couple powerwalls?  I looked into it once, but the cost and reliance on municipal NG killed the option.
 
marmott said:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/tesla-cleverly-bundling-its-battery-users-to-reduce-grid-demand/

Tesla Solar launches a virtual power plant program where PW owners can export energy stored on their batteries during periods of high demand and get paid $2/kwh.

I don't think it will dramatically change the math behind adding batteries but I'm curious to see how much much of a relief it could provide to the grid.
I rejected this program - I want my stored electrons for my M3 and my usage - F the grid.
 
daedalus said:
Part of the equation for me is the usefulness in a disaster.  I kind of think like momopi in this regard.  In a disaster situation, it's possible to lose utilities, both electric and gas, for weeks on end.  I have food and water stores and portable generators.  But solar would be so much better if I decide to stay put.  I can fix my stuff if it gets damaged, and a solar/battery system is quiet and less likely to be stolen.  Aren't the home generators at least as pricey as a couple powerwalls? I looked into it once, but the cost and reliance on municipal NG killed the option.

You can bury a 500 gallon propane tank in your yard to power the backup generator. No need for NG. Not sure if this is HOA friendly  :)
 
iacrenter said:
daedalus said:
Part of the equation for me is the usefulness in a disaster.  I kind of think like momopi in this regard.  In a disaster situation, it's possible to lose utilities, both electric and gas, for weeks on end.  I have food and water stores and portable generators.  But solar would be so much better if I decide to stay put.  I can fix my stuff if it gets damaged, and a solar/battery system is quiet and less likely to be stolen.  Aren't the home generators at least as pricey as a couple powerwalls? I looked into it once, but the cost and reliance on municipal NG killed the option.

You can bury a 500 gallon propane tank in your yard to power the backup generator. No need for NG. Not sure if this is HOA friendly  :)

Forget the HOA.  Pretty sure the city wouldn't write a permit for 1. 
 
daedalus said:
iacrenter said:
daedalus said:
Part of the equation for me is the usefulness in a disaster.  I kind of think like momopi in this regard.  In a disaster situation, it's possible to lose utilities, both electric and gas, for weeks on end.  I have food and water stores and portable generators.  But solar would be so much better if I decide to stay put.  I can fix my stuff if it gets damaged, and a solar/battery system is quiet and less likely to be stolen.  Aren't the home generators at least as pricey as a couple powerwalls? I looked into it once, but the cost and reliance on municipal NG killed the option.

You can bury a 500 gallon propane tank in your yard to power the backup generator. No need for NG. Not sure if this is HOA friendly  :)

Forget the HOA.  Pretty sure the city wouldn't write a permit for 1.

News flash - I doubt Irvine would permit a noisy and non-green nat gas generator - my city up here wouldn?t which is why I got the PWs (plus the 26% tax credit), and nat gas prices will continue going through the roof so why not have a backup option that uses free fuel? Don?t underestimate how much an EV increases your draw - I have 3 PWs and charging at night will draw them down to 30%.
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
Tesla denied me solar panels because my roof is spanish tile.  Is that true that they won't do spanish tile?  Am I wrong that my roof is (likely) spanish tile?

I have spanish tile and Tesla subbed out a complete re-roof where they laid down plywood and replaced the tiles - $7K. That also qualified for the 26% fed tax credit, and the resulting new roof has dramatically cooled the house to the point we use AC half as much as prior, though given I have 3 PWs it's always zero cost from the grid day or night. Total for 8/7kw system with 3 PWs + new roof = $47K before credit
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
Tesla denied me solar panels because my roof is spanish tile.  Is that true that they won't do spanish tile?  Am I wrong that my roof is (likely) spanish tile?

I'll send you my solar company.  Telsa quoted me a 6-9 month time frame for solar, F that.  The company that I contracted with said 3-4 months from the home inspection to the connection with Edison.  Within 2 weeks of coming out to the home to inspect it they came up with the design plan and submitted it to the City of Irvine for approval. They said Irvine usually takes about 30-45 days for approval and then they'll schedule the installation.
 
maybe we are just being frugal, but we have not turned on AC so far this summer...no need yet  ;)
not sure solar makes sense for us...I think on average we are paying less than $150 for electricity + gas monthly; the house is big with Irvine's standard too.
 
The California Court Company said:
maybe we are just being frugal, but we have not turned on AC so far this summer...no need yet  ;)
not sure solar makes sense for us...I think on average we are paying less than $150 for electricity + gas monthly; the house is big with Irvine's standard too.

With a pool and an EV coming where I'll be driving 20k+ miles a year, solar is a must for me.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
The California Court Company said:
maybe we are just being frugal, but we have not turned on AC so far this summer...no need yet  ;)
not sure solar makes sense for us...I think on average we are paying less than $150 for electricity + gas monthly; the house is big with Irvine's standard too.

With a pool and an EV coming where I'll be driving 20k+ miles a year, solar is a must for me.

Taycan?
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
The California Court Company said:
maybe we are just being frugal, but we have not turned on AC so far this summer...no need yet  ;)
not sure solar makes sense for us...I think on average we are paying less than $150 for electricity + gas monthly; the house is big with Irvine's standard too.

With a pool and an EV coming where I'll be driving 20k+ miles a year, solar is a must for me.

Taycan?

Yes sir, a Taycan GTS....wanted a Taycan Cross Turismo but no more allocations for now.
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
Tesla denied me solar panels because my roof is spanish tile.  Is that true that they won't do spanish tile?  Am I wrong that my roof is (likely) spanish tile?
Tesla denied me for having 'clay tile'. They determined this by looking up the MLS listing where it said 'Spanish tile'. I think there are different types of curved tiles (mostly either concrete or clay). I have the blueprints for my home and clay tiles are explicitly mentioned there.

I had another vendor install solar in our old home and over there we had the concrete curved tiles. They definitely broke a bunch during installation and sent out a separate roofer to replace the broken tiles.
 
Well that's a plus...I had been waiting for a better incentive.  Didn't the current 26% tax credit already cover batteries?

I was all in, BUT I got the generation estimate back for a west-facing array (southern roof too small) and it was pretty disappointing.  Even with a 7.2kw system, we would be falling pretty short of covering our needs in the winter. 

For those who have panels, is the winter generation trough really about 1/2 the summer generation peak? 
 
marmott said:
I see a bigger difference than that between winter and summer.
Exactly the kind of real world data I'm looking for.  Thank you.  How does the total annual generation compare to Tesla's estimate?  Side note, I find it maddening that Tesla isn't able to break down the estimate by month-average.  Surely they could easily do so.
 
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