Shady Canyon

[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244670540][quote author="cactusfan" date=1244662401][quote author="cactusfan" date=1244063799]I was looking at the lot 33 Needle Grass, and the downward movement in the last month has been pretty dramatic:



Jun 02, 2009 Price Changed $1,575,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 26, 2009 Price Changed $1,695,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 14, 2009 Price Changed $1,765,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 03, 2009 Price Changed $1,775,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Apr 27, 2009 Price Changed $1,825,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Apr 07, 2009 Price Changed $1,850,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Mar 16, 2009 Price Changed $1,950,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Mar 04, 2009 Price Changed $1,850,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Feb 21, 2009 Price Changed $1,895,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Jan 23, 2009 Listed $1,950,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409



from the tax records, it seems like the lot was originally sold for more than 2.1 M. This was one of the later lots to come onto the market, so I guess they must have bought at the peak of the market. But nearly 400,000 decrease in five months? Any idea what a reaonable price for this property would be? Thanks!</blockquote>


This lot has gone off the market! anyone know if it was sold? thanks!</blockquote>
Not yet, it shows as PENDING on MLS.</blockquote>


Sorry for the ignorance, but does pending mean that it is in the process of a sale? thanks again
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1244665051][quote author="cactusfan" date=1244063799]I was looking at the lot 33 Needle Grass, and the downward movement in the last month has been pretty dramatic:



Jun 02, 2009 Price Changed $1,575,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 26, 2009 Price Changed $1,695,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 14, 2009 Price Changed $1,765,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 03, 2009 Price Changed $1,775,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Apr 27, 2009 Price Changed $1,825,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Apr 07, 2009 Price Changed $1,850,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Mar 16, 2009 Price Changed $1,950,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Mar 04, 2009 Price Changed $1,850,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Feb 21, 2009 Price Changed $1,895,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Jan 23, 2009 Listed $1,950,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409



from the tax records, it seems like the lot was originally sold for more than 2.1 M. This was one of the later lots to come onto the market, so I guess they must have bought at the peak of the market. But nearly 400,000 decrease in five months? Any idea what a reaonable price for this property would be? Thanks!</blockquote>
The following is not a smart alecky answer. It is a serious answer.

A reasonable price for that lot is whatever someone is willing to pay for it and the seller is willing to sell it for. All the comps in the world are irrelevant if no one is willing to buy it at that price.</blockquote>


true. I totally agree. but thats still a smart allecky answer :)
 
[quote author="cactusfan" date=1244707740][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244670540][quote author="cactusfan" date=1244662401][quote author="cactusfan" date=1244063799]I was looking at the lot 33 Needle Grass, and the downward movement in the last month has been pretty dramatic:



Jun 02, 2009 Price Changed $1,575,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 26, 2009 Price Changed $1,695,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 14, 2009 Price Changed $1,765,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

May 03, 2009 Price Changed $1,775,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Apr 27, 2009 Price Changed $1,825,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Apr 07, 2009 Price Changed $1,850,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Mar 16, 2009 Price Changed $1,950,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Mar 04, 2009 Price Changed $1,850,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Feb 21, 2009 Price Changed $1,895,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409

Jan 23, 2009 Listed $1,950,000 -- SoCalMLS #U9000409



from the tax records, it seems like the lot was originally sold for more than 2.1 M. This was one of the later lots to come onto the market, so I guess they must have bought at the peak of the market. But nearly 400,000 decrease in five months? Any idea what a reaonable price for this property would be? Thanks!</blockquote>


This lot has gone off the market! anyone know if it was sold? thanks!</blockquote>
Not yet, it shows as PENDING on MLS.</blockquote>


Sorry for the ignorance, but does pending mean that it is in the process of a sale? thanks again</blockquote>
Yes, pending means it's in escrow and in the process of closing. It means that all contingencies have been removed and it should be closing any day.
 
Except for the overgrown landscaping and front gates, I think 59 Boulder View was a very nice home and I'm glad the sellers finally came to their senses. 55 Boulder View has also been taken off the market and the owner has moved in. So there is nothing new left for sale on Boulder View except for the $18.5m house and the one at 57 BV which is still under construction.



I also heard that 24 Wellspring has sold. Anyone have any information on that?



The inventory of new homes in Shady is finally dwindling. Unless you want to live on busy -zoom- Canyon Creek -zoom-zoom-zoom.
 
[quote author="Zulu" date=1234490053]Skek - how did you come up with 50 properties in Shady? I count only 36 on Redfin and 42 on camoves.com, minus the recent sells. Oops - just found the answer to my own question - you're counting the lots for sale as well. Even so, that doesn't seem like such a huge inventory considering there are 400 properties in Shady - 13% of the homes are on the market, but 87% aren't.



Awgee - where can you find that info on Redfin?



Thanks.</blockquote>
According to Redfin the number of properties for sale in Shady Canyon is 57, indicating that inventory is increasing.
 
My point was that the inventory of NEW homes appears to be dwindling. In fact, the inventory of new homes at around $5 million and under (asking) that are really NEW and not being lived is down to a handful - in fact I count only 5. In recent months it's the $4 to low-$5 million range that has been selling.



So if I'm a buyer and I go to Shady and want to buy a new home right now that is "reasonably" priced (in this case I'm defining "reasonable" to be under $6 million - ha!) I've got a choice of five. If I hold my nose and don't pay attention to the food smells, dirty bathrooms, bad decorating, toenail clippings in the carpet and overgrown landscaping that is common among the used homes, my choices do increase. I did go through a lot of these homes at first - every one of them seemed to have issues and yet these are some of the highest priced homes in Shady, indicating the disconnect between reality and what these homeowners believe their homes are worth. But I'm not a big fan of homes that have been lived in, so



In all, I counted 44 completed homes for sale in Shady at www.camoves.com. There are also 14 lots on the market, most priced above $2 million. This market is beyond dead. It's a 3-4 year process from the time you first look at a lot until the day you can hang your toothbrush in the bathroom.



There are still a lot of new homes under construction - how many of these are spec is unknown, but most of the ones I've been seeing appear to be owner-occupied.



There still is some chance that the homes now in the $6-7 million range may eventually drop into the $4's. It seems to take about 9-months per $1 million, but that would be something worth waiting for.
 
Guess 41 Golden Eagle didn't sell in the online auction. It <a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/18/14-more-irvine-homes-are-heading-to-auction/">leads a list of homes going to auction</a> on the Santa Ana courthouse steps.
 
[quote author="EquityMind" date=1245480916]Guess 41 Golden Eagle didn't sell in the online auction. It <a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/18/14-more-irvine-homes-are-heading-to-auction/">leads a list of homes going to auction</a> on the Santa Ana courthouse steps.</blockquote>
wow, so the amount owed on that property is more than 5 million! Must not be the original owner?
 
[quote author="cactusfan" date=1245487489][quote author="EquityMind" date=1245480916]Guess 41 Golden Eagle didn't sell in the online auction. It <a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/18/14-more-irvine-homes-are-heading-to-auction/">leads a list of homes going to auction</a> on the Santa Ana courthouse steps.</blockquote>
wow, so the amount owed on that property is more than 5 million! Must not be the original owner?</blockquote>
That write-off is gonna hurt!
 
[quote author="cactusfan" date=1245487489][quote author="EquityMind" date=1245480916]Guess 41 Golden Eagle didn't sell in the online auction. It <a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/18/14-more-irvine-homes-are-heading-to-auction/">leads a list of homes going to auction</a> on the Santa Ana courthouse steps.</blockquote>
wow, so the amount owed on that property is more than 5 million! Must not be the original owner?</blockquote>


It was canceled on 6/12. And, yes, it is the original owner and the original debt was $4.86mil.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1245490794][quote author="cactusfan" date=1245487489][quote author="EquityMind" date=1245480916]Guess 41 Golden Eagle didn't sell in the online auction. It <a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/18/14-more-irvine-homes-are-heading-to-auction/">leads a list of homes going to auction</a> on the Santa Ana courthouse steps.</blockquote>
wow, so the amount owed on that property is more than 5 million! Must not be the original owner?</blockquote>


It was canceled on 6/12. And, yes, it is the original owner and the original debt was $4.86mil.</blockquote>


thanks for the clarification, but what I don't understand is how it adds up.



judging from the property tax, the land was purchased at a bit over 1M.

judging from the time, square footage, and quality of construction, I am guessing it wouldn't have been more than 2.5 - 3M

so the rest is all the interest, I suppose?
 
[quote author="cactusfan" date=1245497352][quote author="graphrix" date=1245490794][quote author="cactusfan" date=1245487489][quote author="EquityMind" date=1245480916]Guess 41 Golden Eagle didn't sell in the online auction. It <a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/18/14-more-irvine-homes-are-heading-to-auction/">leads a list of homes going to auction</a> on the Santa Ana courthouse steps.</blockquote>
wow, so the amount owed on that property is more than 5 million! Must not be the original owner?</blockquote>


It was canceled on 6/12. And, yes, it is the original owner and the original debt was $4.86mil.</blockquote>


thanks for the clarification, but what I don't understand is how it adds up.



judging from the property tax, the land was purchased at a bit over 1M.

judging from the time, square footage, and quality of construction, I am guessing it wouldn't have been more than 2.5 - 3M

so the rest is all the interest, I suppose?</blockquote>
Or a fat cash-out after an inflated appraised value.
 
I haven't looked at pricing in Shady Canyon in a while, but when I did last night, I was surprised by all the homes for sale and the large number of them offered for sale at a loss. It looks like denial is giving way to fear there.
 
my personal favorite is 30 Sage creek...rumored to be going into foreclosure soon, and could sell below 4M.

I still wonder how much they spent on landscaping the back...with the huge retaining walls and fake boulders and waterfall...
 
Walked around 118 Canyon Creek today. The back yard offers a lot of privacy. The house is nice, although the barn siding door is a bit much. My wife likes it, though, so there goes that objection. The materials are OK - what I would expect at Shady but certainly nothing out of the norm. Overall, pretty nice for a $4-5 million home. Except that it's not anywhere close to that price. Try $8.995m asking. They're not just drinking kool-aid, they're smoking it.
 
checked out 89 canyon creek, huge home, but pretty low quality in terms of finishes. waterfall in center "courtyard"seemed really strange...can't really see how owner expects it to sell anywhere near 8.8M, which was more than 72 golden eagle was (sold?) listed for. on the other hand, 56 canyon creek is very nice, excellent quality finishes, and superb layout,...if only the ferrari in the garage were included in the sale price...
 
[quote author="cactusfan" date=1246453356]checked out 89 canyon creek, huge home, but pretty low quality in terms of finishes. waterfall in center "courtyard"seemed really strange...can't really see how owner expects it to sell anywhere near 8.8M, which was more than 72 golden eagle was (sold?) listed for. on the other hand, 56 canyon creek is very nice, excellent quality finishes, and superb layout,...if only the ferrari in the garage were included in the sale price...</blockquote>
56 Canyon Creek is heavenly nice, but the sellers are a bit out of touch with reality.
 
SCman,



So what will you charge now to accompany us to the gates of Shady Canyon? I remember u have increased your commission to a $5 foot long? Make sure u use that sub sandwich to protect us from "you know who". Haha!
 
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