stepping_up_IHB
New member
How much did REO's increase from May when this thread started until Sept, when the thread predicted they would increase 50% during that time? More? Less?
REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months.
- Thread starter freedomCM_IHB
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Great retrospective! Unfortunately, they only increased about 25% before the gov't stepped in to squash them.
I"m hoping for much better news in the new year...
As I said, it looks like REOs increased about 25% between may and sept, then took a dive when the state (1137?) put on the brakes, followed this winter by the feds.
What is unclear is whether the "delayed" REOs will come in one big surge over the next few months, or will slowly ramp up over the next year.
AB1137 made the NODs and foreclosures fall off a cliff in September. Couple that with lenders doing their own foreclosure moratoriums (i.e. BofA with their Countryfried garbage), IndyCrap doing whatever it takes to stave off foreclosures, and the take overs of banks like WAMU (WAMU knew they were toast, and almost all of their foreclosures were canceled in September, but they are all back now), then it helps explain why the numbers fell in September. It was just a jam in the system, and now they are starting to find their way back through the system. If the trend held and there was no jam in the system, foreclosures in OC would have risen by over 40% from May to September. Not exactly 50%, but still pretty nasty. Now, just watch the numbers for Q1 and Q2 to shatter foreclosure records.
Check out what Paul had to say about it last month in comparing it to the Mass. law that was passed. It his latest print edition he goes even more in depth in why moratoriums are just another way of hitting the pause button, but now the play button has been hit again.
One other wild-card is how long the banks are taking from NOTs to REO to eviction.
They still don't have the staff to process this huge number of REOs, and I'm hearing anecdotally that FBs are staying "Rent-Free" for a year now.
I wonder if the banks will start hiring more people (or contractors more likely) to get the FBs out and the houses listed?
I know of two foreclosures in my neighborhood where the bank took them back in sept and still no eviction. That one on Surf that Cayci posted in the 50% off thread was taken back in April and they didn't file the eviction until Nov.
Too bad I will probably already own something by then...
Sad IPO,
Mr. Mortgage's conversion rate of 85% is a bit dramatically high. I haven't looked at the conversion ratio lately, because with AB1137 it is useless, but even if the old 60% conversion ratio still stands... that means a lot of foreclosures.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
stepping_up said:
Great retrospective! Unfortunately, they only increased about 25% before the gov't stepped in to squash them.
I"m hoping for much better news in the new year...
stepping_up_IHB
New member
the gov;t didnt come in until late sept. so, how much did reo's increase from the time of this post in mid may until 4 months later, mid sept? more, less?
momopi_IHB
New member
I have a couple friends who work in companies that buy bank repo properties. Word is that they're now getting cash infusions in the billions from investors.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
stepping_up said:
As I said, it looks like REOs increased about 25% between may and sept, then took a dive when the state (1137?) put on the brakes, followed this winter by the feds.
What is unclear is whether the "delayed" REOs will come in one big surge over the next few months, or will slowly ramp up over the next year.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
3:1 on the surge.
stepping_up_IHB
New member
OK, so the prediction was in mid may that they would rise 50% in the next 4 months, which put us at mid sept. The gov't action came in late Sept. So why did they rise only 25% when the prediction was for 50%? Adjustables not adjusting higher? More people trying to modify their loan?
graphrix_IHB
New member
stepping_up said:
AB1137 made the NODs and foreclosures fall off a cliff in September. Couple that with lenders doing their own foreclosure moratoriums (i.e. BofA with their Countryfried garbage), IndyCrap doing whatever it takes to stave off foreclosures, and the take overs of banks like WAMU (WAMU knew they were toast, and almost all of their foreclosures were canceled in September, but they are all back now), then it helps explain why the numbers fell in September. It was just a jam in the system, and now they are starting to find their way back through the system. If the trend held and there was no jam in the system, foreclosures in OC would have risen by over 40% from May to September. Not exactly 50%, but still pretty nasty. Now, just watch the numbers for Q1 and Q2 to shatter foreclosure records.
Check out what Paul had to say about it last month in comparing it to the Mass. law that was passed. It his latest print edition he goes even more in depth in why moratoriums are just another way of hitting the pause button, but now the play button has been hit again.
tmare_IHB
New member
I don't think there is any way to get data on how many sub primes are still out there hanging on by a thread not because of a modification, just a voluntary change in reset date by the bank. If I know two of these, there has to be a lot more. While alt-a's and option arms are still coming, I don't think sub-prime is finished either.
graphrix_IHB
New member
Subprime is no where near being finished. I just checked the MBS pools of some of the more famous subprime lenders, and what do ya know? 30 and 60 day delinquencies were up, as well as those who have entered into foreclosure in the last four months. It looks like roll rates are up too, i.e. 30 day late, next month goes to 60 day late, month after 90 day late, etc.
I checked some ALT-A and prime MBS pools too. Guess what? We're all subprime now!
BTW, this is the best future indicator of what is to come, because the amount of people entering into foreclosure are barely just now showing up in the numbers you read about in the press, and because the 30 and 60 day lates have increased and those numbers are not in the numbers you read about at all.
I checked some ALT-A and prime MBS pools too. Guess what? We're all subprime now!
BTW, this is the best future indicator of what is to come, because the amount of people entering into foreclosure are barely just now showing up in the numbers you read about in the press, and because the 30 and 60 day lates have increased and those numbers are not in the numbers you read about at all.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
tmare said:
One other wild-card is how long the banks are taking from NOTs to REO to eviction.
They still don't have the staff to process this huge number of REOs, and I'm hearing anecdotally that FBs are staying "Rent-Free" for a year now.
I wonder if the banks will start hiring more people (or contractors more likely) to get the FBs out and the houses listed?
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
If Irvine is indicative of the NODs flow throughout the rest of the counter, NODs must be going through the roof. Irvine is up to average of 4.5 per business day through 1/15... There are almost three times as many NODs filed on Irvine properties than there are closed sales over the same period.
stepping_up_IHB
New member
freedomCM said:
I know of two foreclosures in my neighborhood where the bank took them back in sept and still no eviction. That one on Surf that Cayci posted in the 50% off thread was taken back in April and they didn't file the eviction until Nov.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
awgee said:
Too bad I will probably already own something by then...
Sad IPO,
freedomCM_IHB
New member
Wow, Dr.Housingbubble has a great post on optionARMS in CA today:
Option ARMs and Recast Shock Syndrome: Toxic Financial Products are Imploding on Schedule. Examining the Impact on California.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/...-schedule-examining-the-impact-on-california/
$300B of california optionARMs exist,
Hah, GAME OVER.......
Option ARMs and Recast Shock Syndrome: Toxic Financial Products are Imploding on Schedule. Examining the Impact on California.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/...-schedule-examining-the-impact-on-california/
$300B of california optionARMs exist,
Hah, GAME OVER.......
freedomCM_IHB
New member
from matt's blog:
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/
O.C. has nearly 6,000 properties in foreclosure pipeline
1.3 percent of all outstanding mortgages in the county.
up from 0.9 percent in December 2007.
late mortgages double
And 4.8 percent of O.C. mortgage loans were 90 days or more delinquent in December, vs. 2.8 percent for the same period last year.
Using mr. mortgage's conversion rate of 85% of NODs to NOTs, and ~450k total OC mortgages, that should mean:
22k REOs in six months
Can this really be true????
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/
O.C. has nearly 6,000 properties in foreclosure pipeline
1.3 percent of all outstanding mortgages in the county.
up from 0.9 percent in December 2007.
late mortgages double
And 4.8 percent of O.C. mortgage loans were 90 days or more delinquent in December, vs. 2.8 percent for the same period last year.
Using mr. mortgage's conversion rate of 85% of NODs to NOTs, and ~450k total OC mortgages, that should mean:
22k REOs in six months
Can this really be true????
graphrix_IHB
New member
freedomCM said:
Mr. Mortgage's conversion rate of 85% is a bit dramatically high. I haven't looked at the conversion ratio lately, because with AB1137 it is useless, but even if the old 60% conversion ratio still stands... that means a lot of foreclosures.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
why do you think mr. mortgage's rate is off? or are you saying that the rate for OC is lower than statewide? Do you think that the OC rate will increase with the increasing UE?
graphrix_IHB
New member
1. Mr. Mortgage is a drama queen. Sorry, but he is, and he tends to exaggerate things, and mix statistics up, making things sound worse than they are. He serves a purpose to shock and awe, but he is not the authority on everything mortgage related, as much as he thinks he is and as much as many of his fans think he is. I don't think his 85% conversion ratio is an actual statistic, but something he estimates, or pulled from one specific source and not how mortgages are performing as a whole. Did he cite his source? Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesn't.
2. I have been following the conversion in OC for over a year now, and the only reason I stopped is because of AB1137 screwing things up. It has never been near 85%. I used to post the stats in the foreclosure thread, and you can see it for yourself. You can also do it yourself. Take the total of the last 6 months of foreclosures, then take the total of the 6 months prior to that time period for NODs, then divide. Again, it may be high right now due to AB1137, it slowed NODs down, not so much for foreclosures.
3. Yes, OC is lower compared to statewide, and will probably stay lower, but not by much. I doubt that CA is seeing a 85% NOD to foreclosure ratio, and I doubt we will.
Find me the actual sources, that you can cite, that back up the stats provided by Mr. Mortgage. Then, we can discuss the numbers, and what exactly he means by conversion ratio.
2. I have been following the conversion in OC for over a year now, and the only reason I stopped is because of AB1137 screwing things up. It has never been near 85%. I used to post the stats in the foreclosure thread, and you can see it for yourself. You can also do it yourself. Take the total of the last 6 months of foreclosures, then take the total of the 6 months prior to that time period for NODs, then divide. Again, it may be high right now due to AB1137, it slowed NODs down, not so much for foreclosures.
3. Yes, OC is lower compared to statewide, and will probably stay lower, but not by much. I doubt that CA is seeing a 85% NOD to foreclosure ratio, and I doubt we will.
Find me the actual sources, that you can cite, that back up the stats provided by Mr. Mortgage. Then, we can discuss the numbers, and what exactly he means by conversion ratio.