PadreBrian_IHB
New member
That FHA is steady as a rock. I see why Bush/congress wants to move all the loans over to it. BUT, lol doesn't that make us a socialist country?
REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months.
- Thread starter freedomCM_IHB
- Start date
Anonymous_IHB
New member
Even without the resets - higher taxes aren't going to help the pricer Irvine SFR's ...
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_24/b4088081624555.htm
Taxing the 'Not-So-Rich' Rich
Just what does it mean to be wealthy these days? When it comes to raising taxes, it's far from clear exactly where the line will be drawn. While Obama has said only couples making more than $250,000 will pay more, many analysts believe that number could change. "Rates at the top end are going up, but what does that mean for those making $200,000, $225,000, or $250,000?" asks Anne Mathias, the head of Washington policy research for the Stanford Group, an investment advisory firm.
...
Yet even if McCain is elected, analysts say taxes at the top end will probably rise. With the Democrats likely to wield a stronger grip on Congress after the election, there's little chance they'd agree to a renewal of all the Bush cuts. "People think the President can just extend the cuts, but he can't," says Stanford Group's Mathias. All of which explains why Mathias has been warning her clients that the next couple of years "will be a very bad time to be rich." Whatever, precisely, that means.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_24/b4088081624555.htm
Taxing the 'Not-So-Rich' Rich
Just what does it mean to be wealthy these days? When it comes to raising taxes, it's far from clear exactly where the line will be drawn. While Obama has said only couples making more than $250,000 will pay more, many analysts believe that number could change. "Rates at the top end are going up, but what does that mean for those making $200,000, $225,000, or $250,000?" asks Anne Mathias, the head of Washington policy research for the Stanford Group, an investment advisory firm.
...
Yet even if McCain is elected, analysts say taxes at the top end will probably rise. With the Democrats likely to wield a stronger grip on Congress after the election, there's little chance they'd agree to a renewal of all the Bush cuts. "People think the President can just extend the cuts, but he can't," says Stanford Group's Mathias. All of which explains why Mathias has been warning her clients that the next couple of years "will be a very bad time to be rich." Whatever, precisely, that means.
graphrix_IHB
New member
[quote author="Roo" date=1212876714][quote author="graphrix" date=1212038405]Ah... yes... here is some chart love for OC. It looks like I will need to update the amount for the foreclosure number to be higher than 2500, eh that might be next quarter. </blockquote>
Graph, I thought Lansner blog data from dataquick had sales at just over 2,000 in April and May, yet your graph is at 500 or so. What am I missing?</blockquote>
The blue line goes with the blue numbers, the red line goes with the red numbers. The data is quarterly, so Q1 had about 4000 sales, and about 2300 foreclosures. The main point is to show that sales were the lowest ever, and the foreclosures were the highest for a quarter. In other words Q1 was the worst of the worst.
Graph, I thought Lansner blog data from dataquick had sales at just over 2,000 in April and May, yet your graph is at 500 or so. What am I missing?</blockquote>
The blue line goes with the blue numbers, the red line goes with the red numbers. The data is quarterly, so Q1 had about 4000 sales, and about 2300 foreclosures. The main point is to show that sales were the lowest ever, and the foreclosures were the highest for a quarter. In other words Q1 was the worst of the worst.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
SubprimeARM - PrimeARM- All the resets are coming faster
and the biggest thing to come is the optionARM market.
Credit Suisse has a new chart:
<img src="http://images.businessweek.com/story/08/popup/0604_arm_reset.jpg" alt="" />
interestingly, in the comments at JimtR's site, RobDawg has a really informative tidbit:
the option ARMS go full AM sooner than I had thought.
110%-115%-125% of the original loan balance or home value whichever is lower.
June 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterRob Dawg
So all the 25% price drops in the markets around the country mean that <strong>EVERY SINGLE optionARM is now subject to reset,</strong>
as soon as the banks send the letters to the homedebtors
<blockquote>About 13% of option ARMs that were issued in 2006 were delinquent by 60 days by the
time they were 18 months old, Credit Suisse said.
Today, outstanding option ARM loans in the U.S. total about $500 billion, about 60% of which
were sold to California homeowners</blockquote>
and the biggest thing to come is the optionARM market.
Credit Suisse has a new chart:
<img src="http://images.businessweek.com/story/08/popup/0604_arm_reset.jpg" alt="" />
interestingly, in the comments at JimtR's site, RobDawg has a really informative tidbit:
the option ARMS go full AM sooner than I had thought.
110%-115%-125% of the original loan balance or home value whichever is lower.
June 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterRob Dawg
So all the 25% price drops in the markets around the country mean that <strong>EVERY SINGLE optionARM is now subject to reset,</strong>
as soon as the banks send the letters to the homedebtors
<blockquote>About 13% of option ARMs that were issued in 2006 were delinquent by 60 days by the
time they were 18 months old, Credit Suisse said.
Today, outstanding option ARM loans in the U.S. total about $500 billion, about 60% of which
were sold to California homeowners</blockquote>
Trooper_IHB
New member
<em>"About 10% of the homes built after 2000 are now vacant, according to the Census Bureau, compared with roughly 2% of homes built earlier".</em>
Can this quote be for real ? Is that the whole country ? I mean, I can see this being true in say Phoenix area, Las Vegas, Sacramento.... but perhaps those market vacancies are skewing the average.
If it's true, it's shocking.
Can this quote be for real ? Is that the whole country ? I mean, I can see this being true in say Phoenix area, Las Vegas, Sacramento.... but perhaps those market vacancies are skewing the average.
If it's true, it's shocking.
No_Such_Reality_IHB
New member
[quote author="Trooper" date=1212900181]<em>"About 10% of the homes built after 2000 are now vacant, according to the Census Bureau, compared with roughly 2% of homes built earlier".</em>
Can this quote be for real ? Is that the whole country ? I mean, I can see this being true in say Phoenix area, Las Vegas, Sacramento.... but perhaps those market vacancies are skewing the average.
If it's true, it's shocking.</blockquote>
Troop, I count three vacant properties in the townhome complex I rent in alone. It's not even new and only has about 30-40 units total. That's basically 10%. In an established neighborhood.
The next door one is vacant, on the MLS. The realtors keep leaving their cards in front of the window. Nobody has bothered to pick up the cards in two weeks. The place that I suspect is a foreclosure moved out a couple months back. A notice for the gas company has been hanging on the door. The windows are open and screen is off. Rain rolled right in. The ceiling fan was taken from the bedroom. The leather theatre recliners and stainless steel fridge is still sitting there. (I suspect it was too big whereever they took off too) The realtor with the sign doesn't return calls. The third unit, I don't know the story.
When I go for a walk, here comes the quad McMansions the guy built for himself and priced way above market. His extended family lives in two. The other two are empty. I can't count the for rent signs and empty houses as I walk around the neighborhood. They are too numerous.
I feel like Cole in The Sixth Sense, except I see empty houses...
Can this quote be for real ? Is that the whole country ? I mean, I can see this being true in say Phoenix area, Las Vegas, Sacramento.... but perhaps those market vacancies are skewing the average.
If it's true, it's shocking.</blockquote>
Troop, I count three vacant properties in the townhome complex I rent in alone. It's not even new and only has about 30-40 units total. That's basically 10%. In an established neighborhood.
The next door one is vacant, on the MLS. The realtors keep leaving their cards in front of the window. Nobody has bothered to pick up the cards in two weeks. The place that I suspect is a foreclosure moved out a couple months back. A notice for the gas company has been hanging on the door. The windows are open and screen is off. Rain rolled right in. The ceiling fan was taken from the bedroom. The leather theatre recliners and stainless steel fridge is still sitting there. (I suspect it was too big whereever they took off too) The realtor with the sign doesn't return calls. The third unit, I don't know the story.
When I go for a walk, here comes the quad McMansions the guy built for himself and priced way above market. His extended family lives in two. The other two are empty. I can't count the for rent signs and empty houses as I walk around the neighborhood. They are too numerous.
I feel like Cole in The Sixth Sense, except I see empty houses...
acpme_IHB
New member
Delinquency Rates for Subprime, Alt-A, and Prime
despite home prices dropping heavily in the past year, loans originated in '07 of all types are going delinquent at a faster rate than buyers in prev yrs. it's a reminder to all those who believe the bottom is near -- it's not even close. we might be slowly putting WTF prices behind us and maybe the next few yrs will indeed be the bottom for prices. but it'll linger there for a loooong time as today's WTF loans will still be getting weeded out of the system even a few yrs from now.
<img src="http://img701.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/06/10/picture1-4asz4kczh.jpeg" alt="" />
despite home prices dropping heavily in the past year, loans originated in '07 of all types are going delinquent at a faster rate than buyers in prev yrs. it's a reminder to all those who believe the bottom is near -- it's not even close. we might be slowly putting WTF prices behind us and maybe the next few yrs will indeed be the bottom for prices. but it'll linger there for a loooong time as today's WTF loans will still be getting weeded out of the system even a few yrs from now.
<img src="http://img701.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/06/10/picture1-4asz4kczh.jpeg" alt="" />
biscuitninja_IHB
New member
wow! 2007 looks U.G.L.Y. only 10 months!
-bix
p.s. the chart porn is outstanding!
-bix
p.s. the chart porn is outstanding!
stepping_up_IHB
New member
I'm still not moving to Texas!
freedomCM_IHB
New member
Great charts, apcme!
Why is 2000 listed and not 2001, 2002?
Why does 2000 seem so much worse than 2003-2005?
Why is 2000 listed and not 2001, 2002?
Why does 2000 seem so much worse than 2003-2005?
freedomCM_IHB
New member
And here is my quote of the day:
<blockquote>It's not just subprime. In the first quarter of 2008, 36 percent of all foreclosures initiated were on prime adjustable-rate mortgages in California.</blockquote>
from Newsweek
<strong>
Prime ARMs are now shooting to the stars!</strong>
<blockquote>It's not just subprime. In the first quarter of 2008, 36 percent of all foreclosures initiated were on prime adjustable-rate mortgages in California.</blockquote>
from Newsweek
<strong>
Prime ARMs are now shooting to the stars!</strong>
graphrix_IHB
New member
acpme's chartpr0n = parab0lic
freedomCM_IHB
New member
<strong>well, its not yet a full 50% increase in REOs, but 9% in a month isn't too shabby:</strong>
<blockquote>California broke a major foreclosure record in May with $10.4 BILLION in loans going back to lender?s balance sheets. This was a near 9% increase month-over-month. </blockquote>
<a href="http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/">http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/</a>
<blockquote>California broke a major foreclosure record in May with $10.4 BILLION in loans going back to lender?s balance sheets. This was a near 9% increase month-over-month. </blockquote>
<a href="http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/">http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/</a>
lendingmaestro_IHB
New member
It must be a great time to buy.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
A little nugget I ran across over on CR:
the numbers for current CLTV > 120 are:
subprime: ~60%
alt-a: ~42%
option arm: ~40%
prime: ~15%
<strong>
What percentage of homedebtors with CLTV > 120 will jinglemail/walkaway?
Anyone have a guess?</strong>
the numbers for current CLTV > 120 are:
subprime: ~60%
alt-a: ~42%
option arm: ~40%
prime: ~15%
<strong>
What percentage of homedebtors with CLTV > 120 will jinglemail/walkaway?
Anyone have a guess?</strong>
Masterofdamoney_IHB
New member
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1213413158]A little nugget I ran across over on CR:
the numbers for current CLTV > 120 are:
subprime: ~60%
alt-a: ~42%
option arm: ~40%
prime: ~15%
<strong>
What percentage of homedebtors with CLTV > 120 will jinglemail/walkaway?
Anyone have a guess?</strong></blockquote>
THAT SUCKS, JACK.
That's like 45% of homeowners then? L O L
No guesses here... but I would definitely bail.
the numbers for current CLTV > 120 are:
subprime: ~60%
alt-a: ~42%
option arm: ~40%
prime: ~15%
<strong>
What percentage of homedebtors with CLTV > 120 will jinglemail/walkaway?
Anyone have a guess?</strong></blockquote>
THAT SUCKS, JACK.
That's like 45% of homeowners then? L O L
No guesses here... but I would definitely bail.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
<strong>135k new REOs in California in the next 5 months!!!!!</strong>
<blockquote>In addition, in the past 4-months, 167k new notices-of-default were filed. If 80% turn into REO, an average of 33,500 homes per month will be taken back by the banks in the next four months, which is more than sales have been since August of last year.</blockquote>
gotta love mrmortgage!
<a href="http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/">http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/</a>
<blockquote>In addition, in the past 4-months, 167k new notices-of-default were filed. If 80% turn into REO, an average of 33,500 homes per month will be taken back by the banks in the next four months, which is more than sales have been since August of last year.</blockquote>
gotta love mrmortgage!
<a href="http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/">http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/</a>
freedomCM_IHB
New member
Quote of the day:
<blockquote>?Amid all the attention being paid to rate adjustments, however, it?s important to note that out of all the active delinquent ARM loans in Clayton?s portfolio, approximately 70 percent were already delinquent prior to the first rate change date,? analysts at the firm noted in their report.</blockquote>
For CA, both subprime (500k loans) and alt-A (720k loans) are 70% adjustables, so that means 850k adjustables
<strong>That means 600k loans are going to default prior to reset!</strong> just in CA!!!
(anybody know the number of CA primer ARMs? have to add those in too, i guess)
<blockquote>?Amid all the attention being paid to rate adjustments, however, it?s important to note that out of all the active delinquent ARM loans in Clayton?s portfolio, approximately 70 percent were already delinquent prior to the first rate change date,? analysts at the firm noted in their report.</blockquote>
For CA, both subprime (500k loans) and alt-A (720k loans) are 70% adjustables, so that means 850k adjustables
<strong>That means 600k loans are going to default prior to reset!</strong> just in CA!!!
(anybody know the number of CA primer ARMs? have to add those in too, i guess)
stepping_up_IHB
New member
I guess this means that people aren't in denial that they are in deep trouble... I can only assume that this means the people who bought in 2005-2007 see the writing on the wall and have just stopped paying. I know unemployment has risen, but this looks more like people throwing in the towel.