REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months.

hah, no, i don't want to dispute the actual percentage. i'm sure that you know the numbers, especially for OC, better than anyone else here.



i just wanted to get your take on the conversion rate these days. as you said ab1137 has made things fuzzy right now.



my own gut feeling is that it must be high and getting higher, but i just don't know if that means 50% or 80%.
 
<strong>Here comes the wave: </strong> 25% deliquent x 45% (of the national market) = 11%,

or for CA, where >80% were non-agency, that is 20% of all loans on the way to FC





The "non-agency" market, which was once relatively small, overtook the agency mortgage market in 2005. It now represents something like 45% of all outstanding homeloans.



<blockquote> 01/31/09 12/31/08 11/30/08 01/31/08 01/31/07

=========================================================================

Delinq. (30,60,90,REO&Fore;) 24.13% 23.17% 21.69% 14.43% 7.28%

of which Prime 12.87% 12.08% 10.79% 5.27% 2.22%

of which Alt-A 23.51% 22.49% 20.25% 10.59% 4.45%

of which Subprime 38.88% 37.71% 35.99% 25.77% 12.88%</blockquote>
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=an7bb8PA_CqY
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1235042516]<strong>Here comes the wave: </strong> 25% deliquent x 45% (of the national market) = 11%,

or for CA, where >80% were non-agency, that is 20% of all loans on the way to FC





The "non-agency" market, which was once relatively small, overtook the agency mortgage market in 2005. It now represents something like 45% of all outstanding homeloans.



<blockquote> 01/31/09 12/31/08 11/30/08 01/31/08 01/31/07

=========================================================================

Delinq. (30,60,90,REO&Fore;) 24.13% 23.17% 21.69% 14.43% 7.28%

of which Prime 12.87% 12.08% 10.79% 5.27% 2.22%

of which Alt-A 23.51% 22.49% 20.25% 10.59% 4.45%

of which Subprime 38.88% 37.71% 35.99% 25.77% 12.88%</blockquote>
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=an7bb8PA_CqY</blockquote>
Wow...17% non-agency loans now over 90 days late. Things are beginning to fall apart fast.
 
A fresh quote from a banker on CR as to why we aren't seeing more REOs:



<blockquote>"The reason there are fewer homeless people may be related to a combination of factors."



Here's another - due to the foreclosure moratoriums, there are an incredible number of people living in houses but not paying their mortgages. You would not believe some of the delinquency numbers I have seen, not the number of delinquencies (which we all know are high), but the number of days delinquent. I am talking 600+ days delinquent (no, not a typo, six hundred). </blockquote>
<strong>



The homedebtors are squatting in them!</strong>
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1239195248]<img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_A2btxwmKXXg/SdoSwOWdWtI/AAAAAAAABsM/1P90FwHjveg/s1600/California-REO-Inventory.gif" alt="" /></blockquote>


Here is the image that you wanted to post.



http://i42.tinypic.com/9r7iq0.gif



Now give me the source of the image, and I will give you a chart of the backlog of the foreclosures. I might even throw in a chart of the NODs for fun.



It's called the 90 day moratorium that was passed in California. Only a totally stupid, incompetent, near brain dead moron would think that this chart means anything. Watch for the spike in the coming months. You want to bet who is right? I bet $100 right here and now, that come by July that chart shoots up big time. Time to pony up AI, but you know I have been right, and we all know you don't have the balls, so we all know I am just wasting my time on one more of your useless posts. Hit the thank you button though for fixing your chart though, since even the simplistic things elude you.



What's a put option again? It's what I will be buying on the builders in a bit, and maybe even the banks after earnings. You really should just try to learn from those that know more than you. It is becoming kind of sad with your hopeless posts.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1239209190]

What's a put option again? It's what I will be buying on the builders in a bit, and maybe even the banks after earnings.

</blockquote>


So how many options did you buy on Wells Fargo? LOLOLOLOL.



You really should just try to learn from those that know more than you. It is becoming kind of sad with your hopeless posts.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1239368657][quote author="graphrix" date=1239209190]

What's a put option again? It's what I will be buying on the builders in a bit, and maybe even the banks after earnings.

</blockquote>


So how many options did you buy on Wells Fargo? LOLOLOLOL.



You really should just try to learn from those that know more than you. It is becoming kind of sad with your hopeless posts.</blockquote>


Get your wallet out bit*h. Lets go.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1239368657][quote author="graphrix" date=1239209190]

What's a put option again? It's what I will be buying on the builders in a bit, and maybe even the banks after earnings.

</blockquote>


So how many options did you buy on Wells Fargo? LOLOLOLOL.



You really should just try to learn from those that know more than you. It is becoming kind of sad with your hopeless posts.</blockquote>


I said after earnings you bonehead. Reading comprehension is not your strong point is it. Actually, I bought calls on BAC on Tuesday, sold half at 100% profit of my investment, and the other half is up 300%. Don't believe me? Ask BV, Skek, Vicstah, or Cayci, because we were all in on the trade. LOLOLOLOL.



Hopeless, truly... truly hopeless. I told you, you might learn something, and you might make some money too. But oh no... you have to a $%^&.
 
<strong>Are the REOs coming to the mid-high end this summer/fall?</strong>







<blockquote>Jumbo?s Loan Defaults Surging this time around - In CA, the Jumbo loan amounts are getting hit very hard. Loans like Pay Option ARMs, Intermediate-term ARMs and Alt-A are leading the pack going forward. Jumbo loans now make up 31% of all new loan defaults. Wells/Wachovia for example is loaded with these very same loan types. New Jumbo loan defaults are outpacing mid-to-higher end house sales significantly. This is exactly how the lower-end house price crash began.

</blockquote>


<img src="http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/jumbo2.png" alt="" />





http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009...ults-foreclosures-banks-and-housing/#more-145
 
Is this the future for OC?



from a poster on the CR comments:



<blockquote> Anonymous wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 5:54 pm



* reply



I speak from experience...made the decision to LET GO on Saturday. Got guidance from a very good lawyer.



The reasons for "giving up" on an 812K mortgage, 100% 5/1 ARM, OC CA - vintage 12/2005:



1. Zillow zestimate at $519K. House 3 doors down went into f/c and sold for $400K last month.



2. In January my husband took a 10% paycut, no paid holidays, no more paid vacation time, pays 50% of health ins. costs



3. I was put on straight commission (no more draw against future) on March 31st and had to "release the rights" to commissions for work in the pipeline. That's a 60% pay cut. Plus the next commission check won't be mine until my client pays the company in 60 + days.



4. Note: the contraction in the economy was underway long before anyone caught on. My income has been going down the last 3 years, steadily. I thought it was me - not working hard enough. I was getting worried but held out hope I would still be able to turn things around. My income decreased approx. $105K annually since 2005.



5. Our 1951 built house has its original asbestos wrapped air ducts, one of the 2 heaters has a crack in the chamber and there is a carbon dioxide danger to run it and our wooden fencing is falling down.

</blockquote>
 
<strong>Its coming our way</strong>....from CR:



<blockquote>The tables show that the number of prime 60 days+ delinquent rose to 743,686 in January, from 497,131 in December. This is an increase from 1.93% in December to 2.89% in January.



The number of non-prime 60 day+ delinquent loans increased too; from 428,705 in December to 485,365 in January. But the foreclosure problem is now mostly a prime problem!



Or as Tanta used to say: "We're all subprime now!"</blockquote>
 
<strong>But....Hope for Homeowners is going to save all the deserving "homeowners", right?</strong>



from the CR comments:



<blockquote> hopeinsd wrote on Tue, 4/21/2009 - 2:46 pm





So there are 1.2 MILLION loans 60 days past due, and in January, 8,953 "loan modifications" were "completed" and they foreclosed on 3,391. So after all that hard work in Jan. there are roughly 1.2 MILLION problem loans left, with plenty more coming down the pike.



This is going to get very very ugly.

</blockquote>
 
<strong>Want to find out if the homes you are eyeing are going to default? </strong>



Look for the previous sales in 2006 and 2007:

<blockquote>Of the 3.7 million home loans made in 2004, less than 1 percent have since resulted in a lender filing a default notice. Of the 3.7 million loans originated in 2005, 4.9 percent have triggered a default notice so far. Of the 3 million in 2006, 8.5 percent have so far resulted in default. A particularly toxic period appears to have been August through November 2006 which had more than a 9 percent default rate. Of the 2.1 million loans made in 2007, it's 4.6 percent - a percentage that's likely to rise significantly during the rest of this year.</blockquote>
 
<strong>Its not a government debt problem (yet!):</strong>



from CR comments:



<blockquote> lineup32 (profile) wrote on Thu, 4/23/2009 - 8:12 am



a note from Bruce Krasting blog on the growth of mortgage debt:



The Federal Reserve issued a report on March 9th titled ?Mortgage Debt Outstanding?. There is a lot of useful information.

Here is a link:http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/mortoutstand/mortouts...



This report brings some clarity to the problems we are facing. For example, the Fed establishes the size of the mortgages outstanding. The Fed puts that number as of year-end 2008 at a whopping $14.6 trillion. There has been a lot of discussion lately about the rapid rise in Public Sector debt towards the scary 100% of GDP level. Well, private mortgage debt is already there.



<strong>In 1990 mortgage debt was 66% of GDP</strong>. In 2000 it was 68%. However, <strong>from 2000 to 2008 that rate jumped to 100+% of GDP</strong>. This represents an expansion of mortgage credit of $7.8 trillion, a 100% increase in outstanding mortgages in just eight years. There was a 50% increase in the Mortgage Debt to/GDP ratio in the first eight years of this decade. This surge in available credit led to the bubble in housing that is killing us today.

</blockquote>
 
I hope you have found Mr. Mortgage's new site.



This post is great: <a href="http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/04/23/231/">March New Loan Default Summary</a>



"When we look back at 2009 on December 31st with Champagne bottles in hand, we will reflect upon 2009 as being the ?year of the mid to upper end house price collapse?."
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1240570338]I hope you have found Mr. Mortgage's new site.



This post is great: <a href="http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/04/23/231/">March New Loan Default Summary</a>



"When we look back at 2009 on December 31st with Champagne bottles in hand, we will reflect upon 2009 as being the ?year of the mid to upper end house price collapse?."</blockquote>
The low end already got knocked up pretty bad, now it's time for the middle and upper end homes to get kicked in the nuts this year, including Irvine and Newport.
 
<a href="http://'http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/04/27/defaults-double-in-one-irvine-zip/'">NODs rise in every single Irvine ZIP code</a>
 
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