New communities in Portola Springs

Yeah, but there is the inventory issue here. And it will be a while until the mortgage rate actually goes up. Everyone is predicting that the price won't even start to flatten out until mid or late next year. A Goldman Sachs analyst predicted a 16% increase by the end of next year. And Toll Brothers intend to increase 1-1.5% per release phase.

So yeah, price keeps going up until at least mid next year is pretty much a fact.
 
Davidlee199 said:
I don?t understand why people kept saying home prices keep going up and never discussed the cause to the 2021 housing boom. It was the Federal Reserve $120 billion bond buying each month since March 2020.  It announced 11/3 last week it would slow bond purchases and stop buying bond around June 2022.  According to a Forbes article, ? Recently long-term treasury bond yields increased, and mortgage rates will gradually adjust in line with treasuries. If the Federal Reserve stops buying securities every month?which they are likely to do next year?then homes purchased today could be worth 30% less in two years? time.?

I wish that would be the case.

Why do you think the inventory is so low?

For the past year and a half, homeowners have refied and locked into an all time low 2 % ish rate long term, like 20 years or 30. New buyers also enjoying those low rate, abeit higher prices. The demographic shift is now retire in place and die in place. Two or more generation under one roof. The lack of inventory going forward would likely keep prices elevated throughout majority of the metro area of the U.S. It could adjust dramatically if rate hit 7 or 8%. But where the direction of the FED going, they can't even raise 50 basis point before FED Chair take a big dump and pulling out any stop and raise the white flag again.
 
Never trust Goldman Sachs.
?Goldman has been harshly criticized, particularly in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007?2008, where some alleged that it misled its investors and profited from the collapse of the mortgage market. That time ? "one of the darkest chapters" in Goldman's history according to The New York Times[2] ? brought investigations from the United States Congress, the United States Department of Justice, and a lawsuit from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission[3] that resulted in Goldman paying a $550 million settlement.[4]?
 
Compressed-Village said:
Davidlee199 said:
I don?t understand why people kept saying home prices keep going up and never discussed the cause to the 2021 housing boom. It was the Federal Reserve $120 billion bond buying each month since March 2020.  It announced 11/3 last week it would slow bond purchases and stop buying bond around June 2022.  According to a Forbes article, ? Recently long-term treasury bond yields increased, and mortgage rates will gradually adjust in line with treasuries. If the Federal Reserve stops buying securities every month?which they are likely to do next year?then homes purchased today could be worth 30% less in two years? time.?

I wish that would be the case.

Why do you think the inventory is so low?

For the past year and a half, homeowners have refied and locked into an all time low 2 % ish rate long term, like 20 years or 30. New buyers also enjoying those low rate, abeit higher prices. The demographic shift is now retire in place and die in place. Two or more generation under one roof. The lack of inventory going forward would likely keep prices elevated throughout majority of the metro area of the U.S. It could adjust dramatically if rate hit 7 or 8%. But where the direction of the FED going, they can't even raise 50 basis point before FED Chair take a big dump and pulling out any stop and raise the white flag again.

The low inventory is a direct result of the huge buyer demand, not a lack of listings.  We've had more listing than every this year but because properties fly into escrow within a week there's no time for inventory levels to build up.  By the time the holidays roll around we'll have about 100 homes on the market for sale while we are selling around 300 homes a month on average this year....think about that for a second...we have 10 days of inventory of homes (and this does not include new homes which have long wait lists).  Low interest rates definitely help but I'd argue that even if interest rates went to 4% demand would still outstrip demand.  I know I'm a broken record but watch inventory levels to help determine where prices are heading.
 
In the budget village aka least appreciation is what TI thinks of PS. Near the coyotes and fires, don't forget the channel smell if it gets overgrown again (think that got cleaned up either via a TI or Nextdoor thread).  Also is there still only one way in and out of this community, think about as it gets built out with more residents and an emergency occurs where everyone needs to get out of there.
 
Latest release for Bluffs.

$10k increase on Bluffs 1 and $20k increase on Bluffs 2 from Phase 23.
 

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akkord said:
In the budget village aka least appreciation is what TI thinks of PS. Near the coyotes and fires, don't forget the channel smell if it gets overgrown again (think that got cleaned up either via a TI or Nextdoor thread).  Also is there still only one way in and out of this community, think about as it gets built out with more residents and an emergency occurs where everyone needs to get out of there.

Whoever is thinking like this is continuing to think small.  Not all neighborhoods in PS will behave the same regarding appreciation. 
 
paydawg said:
akkord said:
In the budget village aka least appreciation is what TI thinks of PS. Near the coyotes and fires, don't forget the channel smell if it gets overgrown again (think that got cleaned up either via a TI or Nextdoor thread).  Also is there still only one way in and out of this community, think about as it gets built out with more residents and an emergency occurs where everyone needs to get out of there.

Whoever is thinking like this is continuing to think small.  Not all neighborhoods in PS will behave the same regarding appreciation.

I don't disagree, but prices have run up, so chances of higher appreciation compared to the last couple years is not as likely, buildout will be finished in 2022? with price increases each phase + upgrades.  It'll still tick up, but not as quickly.  That's my hope as I'm trying to get my parents to re-locate to OC and they are being stubborn.  But in the past, other villages have appreciated more comparatively speaking outside of Lambert Ranch that's in the middle of PS.
 
Maserson said:
I think there are two exits now, Portola Springs and Whispering Hills.

Nice...I haven't driven up that way in a while, the last time I went up it was only PS.
 
akkord said:
Maserson said:
I think there are two exits now, Portola Springs and Whispering Hills.

Nice...I haven't driven up that way in a while, the last time I went up it was only PS.
Imho, tic could?ve easily made it a gated neighborhood and maybe even command a higher premium, but alas, value village? although I must say, I kinda like the upper hill area, less people and congestion, away from the crowds.  And toll road right there, not a lot of traffic on it too
 
CalBears96 said:
Latest release for Bluffs.

$10k increase on Bluffs 1 and $20k increase on Bluffs 2 from Phase 23.

We were over at Bluffs today and we got the new price sheet for Phase 24, which had another $15k increase on Bluffs 1 from the Phase 24 price sheet the sales lady emailed me. Bluffs 2 stayed the same. I wonder if IP increased the price before or after she started contacting buyers.

Really sucks that Bluffs 1 is now over $1.4M . :-\
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
My dad got a 10:30am appt on Sunday.  Heard that the pricing for Sierra will be coming out on Saturday.

Did they release any pricing for Sierra today?  Can anyone that attended their VIP preview today chime in?
 
eqly said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
My dad got a 10:30am appt on Sunday.  Heard that the pricing for Sierra will be coming out on Saturday.

Did they release any pricing for Sierra today?  Can anyone that attended their VIP preview today chime in?

No one I know, I'll know more tomorrow morning when I go with my dad.
 
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