Midterm Elections
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paperboyNC
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Here's proposition results:https://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/ballot-measures
Voted No on 10 - I'm very much anti rent control. The best way to reduce rents is to increase housing supply - especially close to jobs.
Voted No on 6 - even though I hate the increased taxes and fees ($100/yr + double registration for my EV), our transportation system sucks so I know it needs attention.
Of course $1 billion on I-5 is projected to still have worse traffic through Irvine in 2030.....
Voted No on 10 - I'm very much anti rent control. The best way to reduce rents is to increase housing supply - especially close to jobs.
Voted No on 6 - even though I hate the increased taxes and fees ($100/yr + double registration for my EV), our transportation system sucks so I know it needs attention.
Of course $1 billion on I-5 is projected to still have worse traffic through Irvine in 2030.....
What happened to ?it?s the economy stupid ? ?
With 9 percent popular vote margin (projected) this result is clearly bang in line w trumps approval ratings
That said, the so-called ?red wall? in the Midwest turned out to be made of plywood. Trump is going to have to recreate some magic in the Great Lake states that oh so narrowly delivered him the presidency in 2016.
Democrats now also need to do something about that representative democracy thing now - add Puerto Rico Andy DC as states to balance out those 1-2mm population flyover states that have same senate power as 40 times larger California. This stuff will only get more insane out from here
With 9 percent popular vote margin (projected) this result is clearly bang in line w trumps approval ratings
That said, the so-called ?red wall? in the Midwest turned out to be made of plywood. Trump is going to have to recreate some magic in the Great Lake states that oh so narrowly delivered him the presidency in 2016.
Democrats now also need to do something about that representative democracy thing now - add Puerto Rico Andy DC as states to balance out those 1-2mm population flyover states that have same senate power as 40 times larger California. This stuff will only get more insane out from here
so to recap:
- strong R control in senate - gained seats! means more conservative judges and if rbg or breyer tap out we will most certainly get an even more conservative judge on the supreme court. every state that trump campaigned in, he WON. big W for trump! every state the BO campaigned in was a huge loss.
- big R wins for governor in FL and OH! swing states are important for trump reelection and looking good for our brave leader!
- looks like mimi will win! big W for the local team! polls were WRONG here!
- D take house, which will be interesting moving forward! will they investigate or legislate for 2 years?? they could shoot themselves in the foot if all they do is investigate (and find nothing)! tds is a hell of a feeling, so i'm leaning towards investigate, which is too bad. their dreams of impeachment will never come to fruition (blue wave hit a red wall), so they can bang their head against trump's tax returns and porn stars all they want but it will be a big losing point for them in 2020 if they do. the people elected a D house for bipartisan views in congress, not for trump's tax returns (which wasn't even an issue people were concerned with).
all in all, a big win for trump and everyone that supported him! almost every senator that was in a tight race that voted against kavanaugh lost, which is interesting! one more point - all that dem star power meant absolutely nothing: will ferrell, oprah, obama can all go back home and lick their wounds because last night was a huge loss for dem elites!
- strong R control in senate - gained seats! means more conservative judges and if rbg or breyer tap out we will most certainly get an even more conservative judge on the supreme court. every state that trump campaigned in, he WON. big W for trump! every state the BO campaigned in was a huge loss.
- big R wins for governor in FL and OH! swing states are important for trump reelection and looking good for our brave leader!
- looks like mimi will win! big W for the local team! polls were WRONG here!
- D take house, which will be interesting moving forward! will they investigate or legislate for 2 years?? they could shoot themselves in the foot if all they do is investigate (and find nothing)! tds is a hell of a feeling, so i'm leaning towards investigate, which is too bad. their dreams of impeachment will never come to fruition (blue wave hit a red wall), so they can bang their head against trump's tax returns and porn stars all they want but it will be a big losing point for them in 2020 if they do. the people elected a D house for bipartisan views in congress, not for trump's tax returns (which wasn't even an issue people were concerned with).
all in all, a big win for trump and everyone that supported him! almost every senator that was in a tight race that voted against kavanaugh lost, which is interesting! one more point - all that dem star power meant absolutely nothing: will ferrell, oprah, obama can all go back home and lick their wounds because last night was a huge loss for dem elites!
Perspective
Well-known member
Great. You received the talking points.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!
11/6/18 11:14 PM
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!
11/6/18 11:14 PM
fortune11 said:Perspective said:
Kings can act like don quixote at times - tilting at windmills . But he always adds the smiley face at the end to make sure we all know he has the upper hand w taunts
So here?s my smiley facetoo
Mark my words. Just wait for Trump to blame Paul Ryan. (get the popcorn out)
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
eyephone said:
The only Prop ads I saw on TV were for 6, 8 and 10.
I usually vote down anything that requires additional taxation but there were a few that I did vote for.
Like SGIP I also usually vote down all the bonds, but the one for housing I did vote for.
7 was weird because the way it was worded I wasn't sure what it meant but supposedly Yes means we could get rid of the Fall Back Spring Forward junk with time, if the Fed decides to. I usually don't like to give Fed power over state issues but I think DST has lost its utility.
I don't understand how this is a Rep win... isn't a Dem controlled House a win for the Dems?
I'm independent so I like seeing a split.
Long post ?
President Trump made a good bet that firing up his base, which intersects with the pre-existing Republican Party, was the best path for boosting Senate candidates in deep red states. BUT
the Senate seats Republicans picked up were always tough holds for Democrats and they actually won by smaller margins than Trump did in those states (in some cases much smaller margins). Republicans didn't even play in several Dem-held seats that should have been competitive.
Look, for example, at Missouri, where Trump won by 19 points, and Hawley won by 6 points, or North Dakota, where Trump won by 36 points and Cramer won by 11 points.
What should worry Trump more than anything is that Republicans lost Senate AND gubernatorial races in the three states that were the keys to his electoral college majority -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic governor Wolf won re-election by 17 points and Sen. Casey won by 13 points against one of Trump's favorite candidates ? Lou Barletta ? in a state Trump campaigned in repeatedly.
In Michigan, Democrats won the governorship by more than 8 points, and Stabenow won re-election by more than 5 points.
In Wisconsin, Republicans were non-competitive against Tammy Baldwin, who is no less liberal than Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. And Democrats won the governorship by a whisker.
That doesn't mean that Trump can't win those states in 2020, but it does mean that it would be political malpractice if his team doesn't start figuring out a fix for the Republican problems there RIGHT NOW. Similarly, Democrats have to figure out how to solidify themselves.
Let's take a look at some of the Republican-leaning states where Republicans won. Mike DeWine took Ohio by 4+ points, about two-thirds of Democrat Sherrod Brown's margin in the Senate race. Trump won Ohio by more than 8 points. In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds hung on by 3 points in a state Trump won by nearly 10 points. It was a bloodbath for Republicans at the House level, where Democrats now control three of the four House seats and didn't miss a fourth by a ton. Many others like this across states .
In the House, GOP picked up two seats and Democrats are poised to pick up more than 30. That's a wave (a flip and almost all in one direction)
More important, it wasn't limited to a type of district or a certain region. Sure, you can say "suburban," but there are a lot of different types of suburbs. They include wealthy New York bedroom communities, Oklahoma City suburbs and heavily Hispanic areas of TX, FL & CA
It's hard to find a silver lining for Republicans in the House other than that they didn't lose more ? and there are still a number of outstanding districts to come in. In order to win a majority, Democrats had to find ways to win in districts that were Republican bastions
Because the result was expected, it's easy to forget how big some of the upsets are . All of this is to say that the American political landscape changed a little bit last night. It wasn't a massive sea change that broke the fever of division and partisanship. But it did go mostly in one direction.
Republicans are rightly relieved that it wasn't worse for them. But try to find a place on the map where they expanded their footprint. It's hard. Then look at where Democrats expanded their footprint. It's a lot easier.
History suggests that the likely outcome of this midterm would be a recession from the strength of the president's party in the last election, and that's what happened. But it didn't have to be the outcome given the strong economy
If you cut through the spin, this was a pretty decisive victory for Democrats. They picked up a lever of power at the federal level, won some important governorships and still have a filibuster in the Senate -- and Rs started this cycle thinking about getting to 60.
This will become more apparent as time goes on. But even in Trump's tweets about the House this morning, it's abundantly clear, he knows what he lost last night. The question is whether he'll figure out how to win it back in two years.
President Trump made a good bet that firing up his base, which intersects with the pre-existing Republican Party, was the best path for boosting Senate candidates in deep red states. BUT
the Senate seats Republicans picked up were always tough holds for Democrats and they actually won by smaller margins than Trump did in those states (in some cases much smaller margins). Republicans didn't even play in several Dem-held seats that should have been competitive.
Look, for example, at Missouri, where Trump won by 19 points, and Hawley won by 6 points, or North Dakota, where Trump won by 36 points and Cramer won by 11 points.
What should worry Trump more than anything is that Republicans lost Senate AND gubernatorial races in the three states that were the keys to his electoral college majority -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic governor Wolf won re-election by 17 points and Sen. Casey won by 13 points against one of Trump's favorite candidates ? Lou Barletta ? in a state Trump campaigned in repeatedly.
In Michigan, Democrats won the governorship by more than 8 points, and Stabenow won re-election by more than 5 points.
In Wisconsin, Republicans were non-competitive against Tammy Baldwin, who is no less liberal than Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. And Democrats won the governorship by a whisker.
That doesn't mean that Trump can't win those states in 2020, but it does mean that it would be political malpractice if his team doesn't start figuring out a fix for the Republican problems there RIGHT NOW. Similarly, Democrats have to figure out how to solidify themselves.
Let's take a look at some of the Republican-leaning states where Republicans won. Mike DeWine took Ohio by 4+ points, about two-thirds of Democrat Sherrod Brown's margin in the Senate race. Trump won Ohio by more than 8 points. In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds hung on by 3 points in a state Trump won by nearly 10 points. It was a bloodbath for Republicans at the House level, where Democrats now control three of the four House seats and didn't miss a fourth by a ton. Many others like this across states .
In the House, GOP picked up two seats and Democrats are poised to pick up more than 30. That's a wave (a flip and almost all in one direction)
More important, it wasn't limited to a type of district or a certain region. Sure, you can say "suburban," but there are a lot of different types of suburbs. They include wealthy New York bedroom communities, Oklahoma City suburbs and heavily Hispanic areas of TX, FL & CA
It's hard to find a silver lining for Republicans in the House other than that they didn't lose more ? and there are still a number of outstanding districts to come in. In order to win a majority, Democrats had to find ways to win in districts that were Republican bastions
Because the result was expected, it's easy to forget how big some of the upsets are . All of this is to say that the American political landscape changed a little bit last night. It wasn't a massive sea change that broke the fever of division and partisanship. But it did go mostly in one direction.
Republicans are rightly relieved that it wasn't worse for them. But try to find a place on the map where they expanded their footprint. It's hard. Then look at where Democrats expanded their footprint. It's a lot easier.
History suggests that the likely outcome of this midterm would be a recession from the strength of the president's party in the last election, and that's what happened. But it didn't have to be the outcome given the strong economy
If you cut through the spin, this was a pretty decisive victory for Democrats. They picked up a lever of power at the federal level, won some important governorships and still have a filibuster in the Senate -- and Rs started this cycle thinking about getting to 60.
This will become more apparent as time goes on. But even in Trump's tweets about the House this morning, it's abundantly clear, he knows what he lost last night. The question is whether he'll figure out how to win it back in two years.
And also ?
From a JPMorgan email this morning: "Adjusted for economic and market conditions, the 2018 midterm election represents the worst House retention by any President in 100 years"
paul begala is correct ? it is supposed to be the economy , stupid . Trump is his own worst enemy .
From a JPMorgan email this morning: "Adjusted for economic and market conditions, the 2018 midterm election represents the worst House retention by any President in 100 years"
paul begala is correct ? it is supposed to be the economy , stupid . Trump is his own worst enemy .
Good post but in regards to gubernatorial races, they typically are more representative of what is actually happening in the state. Michigan, as an example, failed to appropriately address the Flint water crisis and the residents of the state voted out Schuette. I think while it is slightly correlated with support for or against Trump, it is not truly a vote for or against Trump. Actions of a governor are much more impactful and visible to a state.
Perspective
Well-known member
This presser is epic Trump. Gotta tune in.
morekaos
Well-known member
This was not a "Wave" or "Repudiation" of Trump and the Repubs. They didn't even cover the average losses for an administration in its first mid-term election. Want to look at a wave? look at Obama's 2012 losses of 59 seats and lost 6 seats in the senate. Clinton lost 54 seats in the 1994 election. Those were wave elections. The Blue Wave turned out to be a fairly unimpressive purple ripple that was bellow average. Now Trump has a House to bludgeon and blame for 2 years for everything that goes wrong solidifying his 2020 re-election. Bring it.