Midterm Elections

[fortune11]

Moderates winning over hard right or hard left candidates is a good thing.

Agree . And this should be a lesson for Democrats choosing candidates for Nov . Have to say they have been pretty smart about it so far judging by both Alabama and now this .

 

[morekaos]

Don?t assign too much importance to this little win. This district won?t even exist in a year and lamb essentially ran as a Republican. This will be forgotten in the next six months.

?He?s pro-gun. He says he?s personally pro-life. He says he?s pro-coal, he?s pro-tariff. He says he's anti-Nancy Pelosi,? McEnany said on ABC News ahead of the election results Tuesday.

?Imagine that, a Democratic candidate who?s against Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader,? she said. ?He has made himself into essentially a Republican. So you have a Republican in name and a Republican in truth running against one another.?

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/378280-rnc-spokeswoman-dem-has-essentially-run-as-a-republican-in-pa-house-race

 

[eyephone]

This is not a fluke. What happened in Alabama?

Don?t assign too much importance to this little win. This district won?t even exist in a year and lamb The essentially ran as a Republican. This will be forgotten in the next six months.

?He?s pro-gun. He says he?s personally pro-life. He says he?s pro-coal, he?s pro-tariff. He says he's anti-Nancy Pelosi,? McEnany said on ABC News ahead of the election results Tuesday.

?Imagine that, a Democratic candidate who?s against Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader,? she said. ?He has made himself into essentially a Republican. So you have a Republican in name and a Republican in truth running against one another.?

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/378280-rnc-spokeswoman-dem-has-essentially-run-as-a-republican-in-pa-house-race

 

[fortune11]

Yeah right .. until yesterday repubs were calling Lamb a tax hiking , gun grabbing , pelosi clone who will let illegal immigrants slaughter unborn children ...

And now the spin is ? look , he is basically a republican

Jokes apart , I am actually glad he didn?t focus too much on identity politics ? it is a non winner in all except the coastal enclaves . He does seem to be very pro union though .

 

[morekaos]

Maybe their learning to move away from that....I hope not.

 

[Liar Loan]

Yeah right .. until yesterday repubs were calling Lamb a tax hiking , gun grabbing , pelosi clone who will let illegal immigrants slaughter unborn children ...

And now the spin is ? look , he is basically a republican

Jokes apart , I am actually glad he didn?t focus too much on identity politics ? it is a non winner in all except the coastal enclaves . He does seem to be very pro union though .

In other words he is a Trump democrat.

 

[fortune11]

Yeah right .. until yesterday repubs were calling Lamb a tax hiking , gun grabbing , pelosi clone who will let illegal immigrants slaughter unborn children ...

And now the spin is ? look , he is basically a republican

Jokes apart , I am actually glad he didn?t focus too much on identity politics ? it is a non winner in all except the coastal enclaves . He does seem to be very pro union though .

In other words he is a Trump democrat.

Raegan Democrat is more like it

I really don?t know how you define a trump democrat anymore given the baggage on him now . Trumps policies can hardly be called pro union . Pro Carl Icahn types , yes . But not pro union .

 

[Liar Loan]

Yeah right .. until yesterday repubs were calling Lamb a tax hiking , gun grabbing , pelosi clone who will let illegal immigrants slaughter unborn children ...

And now the spin is ? look , he is basically a republican

Jokes apart , I am actually glad he didn?t focus too much on identity politics ? it is a non winner in all except the coastal enclaves . He does seem to be very pro union though .

In other words he is a Trump democrat.

Raegan Democrat is more like it

I really don?t know how you define a trump democrat anymore given the baggage on him now . Trumps policies can hardly be called pro union . Pro Carl Icahn types , yes . But not pro union .

He's not pro-union per se.  He's pro-job creation, with a heavy emphasis on blue collar industries.  This naturally benefits the unions, which even the leader of the United Steel Workers had to admit last week.  It doesn't mean Trump is a puppet of the unions the way a typical CA democrat would be.  He's still going to do what's best for the country, not just what's best for the union bosses.

 

[morekaos]

This is not a fluke. What happened in Alabama?

Don?t assign too much importance to this little win. This district won?t even exist in a year and lamb The essentially ran as a Republican. This will be forgotten in the next six months.

?He?s pro-gun. He says he?s personally pro-life. He says he?s pro-coal, he?s pro-tariff. He says he's anti-Nancy Pelosi,? McEnany said on ABC News ahead of the election results Tuesday.

?Imagine that, a Democratic candidate who?s against Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader,? she said. ?He has made himself into essentially a Republican. So you have a Republican in name and a Republican in truth running against one another.?

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/378280-rnc-spokeswoman-dem-has-essentially-run-as-a-republican-in-pa-house-race

Just like Roy Moore, Repubs threw this guy under the bus.  Hard to win when you have to fight both parties at once and run against a mirror of yourself.  This wasn't a repudiation of Trumpism, although they will play it up us as some sort of kill shot. In the end, this and Bama won't matter a wit.

Republicans trash their candidate in Pa. special election

But as election day grows closer, the national GOP is increasingly pinning the blame on Saccone. In interviews with nearly two dozen administration officials, senior House Republicans and top party strategists, Saccone was nearly universally panned as a deeply underwhelming candidate who leaned excessively on the national party to execute a massive, multimillion-dollar rescue effort. It was complete with visits from the president, vice president and several Cabinet members.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/07/republicans-pennsylvania-special-election-445221

 

[fortune11]

Yeah right .. until yesterday repubs were calling Lamb a tax hiking , gun grabbing , pelosi clone who will let illegal immigrants slaughter unborn children ...

And now the spin is ? look , he is basically a republican

Jokes apart , I am actually glad he didn?t focus too much on identity politics ? it is a non winner in all except the coastal enclaves . He does seem to be very pro union though .

In other words he is a Trump democrat.

Raegan Democrat is more like it

I really don?t know how you define a trump democrat anymore given the baggage on him now . Trumps policies can hardly be called pro union . Pro Carl Icahn types , yes . But not pro union .

He's not pro-union per se.  He's pro-job creation, with a heavy emphasis on blue collar industries.  This naturally benefits the unions, which even the leader of the United Steel Workers had to admit last week.  It doesn't mean Trump is a puppet of the unions the way a typical CA democrat would be.  He's still going to do what's best for the country, not just what's best for the union bosses.

Best for the country as in saving duds like ?coal ? or saving a feeble thousand steel jobs at the expense of hurting millions others ?

Trump is really an 80s caricature in terms of his thinking on what matters now

 

[Happiness]

Don?t assign too much importance to this little win. This district won?t even exist in a year and lamb essentially ran as a Republican. This will be forgotten in the next six months.

?He?s pro-gun. He says he?s personally pro-life. He says he?s pro-coal, he?s pro-tariff. He says he's anti-Nancy Pelosi,? McEnany said on ABC News ahead of the election results Tuesday.

?Imagine that, a Democratic candidate who?s against Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader,? she said. ?He has made himself into essentially a Republican. So you have a Republican in name and a Republican in truth running against one another.?

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/378280-rnc-spokeswoman-dem-has-essentially-run-as-a-republican-in-pa-house-race

More evidence the Dems have no hesitation to throw their gun control supporters under the bus if the need arises (echoes of 1996 DNC support of the "Blue Dogs"):

Conor Lamb(D) says Parkland shooting does not justify stricter gun laws:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/feb/16/conor-lamb-warns-against-new-gun-laws/

 

[Liar Loan]

Yeah right .. until yesterday repubs were calling Lamb a tax hiking , gun grabbing , pelosi clone who will let illegal immigrants slaughter unborn children ...

And now the spin is ? look , he is basically a republican

Jokes apart , I am actually glad he didn?t focus too much on identity politics ? it is a non winner in all except the coastal enclaves . He does seem to be very pro union though .

In other words he is a Trump democrat.

Raegan Democrat is more like it

I really don?t know how you define a trump democrat anymore given the baggage on him now . Trumps policies can hardly be called pro union . Pro Carl Icahn types , yes . But not pro union .

He's not pro-union per se.  He's pro-job creation, with a heavy emphasis on blue collar industries.  This naturally benefits the unions, which even the leader of the United Steel Workers had to admit last week.  It doesn't mean Trump is a puppet of the unions the way a typical CA democrat would be.  He's still going to do what's best for the country, not just what's best for the union bosses.

Best for the country as in saving duds like ?coal ? or saving a feeble thousand steel jobs at the expense of hurting millions others ?

Trump is really an 80s caricature in terms of his thinking on what matters now

It's easy to be condescending when you aren't the one suffering.  You have the luxury of whining about issues of identity, and not worrying about putting food on the table or providing for your kid's future.

 

[morekaos]

..and what "millions" are being hurt?

 

[fortune11]

There we go w the sob stories again and morality preaching .

I am not going to derail this thread by engaging these tantrum like replies . Fact remains , repubs lost by a 20 point swing last night and cooking the narrative after the fact is not going to help you .

We would all love to back in time and buy our favorite stock cheaper , but if you didn?t, tough luck .

 

[morekaos]

No sob stories..I say it again.  We will retain both houses ant this will not matter or be remembered...mark may words.

 

[fortune11]

And I predict ...

Once the repubs lose the house , people here will be claiming all those Democrats that won are really closet republicans anyways , so in a way it is trumps agenda and republicans that actually have ?won? .

So you see by switching signs you can flip a loss and continue in your winning ways . Absolutely brilliant .

Taking this logic to its conclusion , if the repub loss was really that bad in November , would anyone be really surprised if trump himself switched parties at that point ?

 

[morekaos]

We shall see who will be right. No ambiguity in what I say..We will keep winning. Like after the last election, Dems will be the ones looking for excuses.  (this is not who we are....yes, it is.)

 

[morekaos]

Why such confidence?  I have faith in human nature and peoples inability to adjust....

Just a sampling around March 2016. (tons of others).

These election experts are predicting a Hillary Clinton landslide over Donald Trump
March 31, 2016

http://theweek.com/speedreads/615901/election-experts-are-predicting-hillary-clinton-landslide-over-donald-trump

Sabato Crystal Ball: Landslide for Hillary in Trump Race

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/larry-sabato-crystal-ball-landslide-hillary/2016/03/31/id/721650/

Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.

FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931

...and today, same two clowns...

House 2018: 26 Ratings Changes, All in Favor of Democrats
PA-18 special now a Toss-up; Democratic incumbents in strong position; and what about Paul Ryan?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

Democratic Wave Into A Tsunami

Democrats in this year?s midterms ? and could turn a challenging year for Republicans into a catastrophic one.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-enthusiasm-gap-could-turn-a-democratic-wave-into-a-tsunami/

 

[fortune11]

" When the facts change I change my mind.  What do you do sir ? " -- John Maynard Keynes

In my line of work I meet a lot of people that were right once upon a time and cashed out big time .  Now they are wealthy.  They also mistakenly assume that because  they were right one time (either by luck  or by smarts) then they must be always right and get stuck on their views like a broken clock.  They casually wave away any any cognitive dissonance.

Confidence and arrogance are two sides of the same coin.  Democrats were arrogant in 2016 (especially Hillary Clinton, who still cant get over it) .  Republicans are making the same mistake in 2018.  But the really smart ones are panicking and rightly so.  The democrats have learned from their John Ossoff debacle and calibrated the subsequent slate of candidates carefully to thread the needle. Cant say the same for republicans. 

 

[morekaos]

To say the Repubs are overconfident is ridiculous.  They are already talking as if they are the minority.  It's my job to be right consistently and for over 30 years of doing what i do, I have been.  If I were only right once, I wouldn't have a job.  I will be right about this too.