no_vaseline_IHB
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RoLar_USC said:
That's not funny or cool.
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- Thread starter RobertLarsen_IHB
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That's not funny or cool.
No. Apparently he needles about grammar but not spelling.
Haha, I was just joking.
I laughed.
I added the closed listing numbers before every four weeks for the total number of closed escrows that month.
Excluding the short sales from the pending (in escrow) category would most definitely not make the data more accurate. In an area where 40-50% properties are listed as short sales, you would be ignoring a large number of sales. If you take short sales out of the pending category, the only way to make the data still somewhat meaningfull would be to also take short sales out of the actives. I listed the closed sales numbers previously as requested but didn't get any sort of response.
Again I'll use Aliso Viejo as an example and take short sales out of both sides.
Total number of active non-short sale listings: 50
Total number of non-short sale properties in escrow: 75
So that method gives 150%... Still impressive.
"all short sales that have submitted offers go into the "pending" category" - Completely untrue. Call ten short sales listed in an active city, and ask if they have any offers submitted. I bet at least 6 of the 10 reply that they do. A frequent practice is for the listing agent to place the listing on "Hold Do Not Show" after the property has received offers and submitted them to the bank. Maybe you meant accepted offers. Yes, short sales do take a long time to close escrow, but they also take a long time to go into escrow.
"the majority of them never close and get foreclosed on" - Now I'm not sure how to find the most accurate support for this argument but I'll do my best. If a short sale does not sell and is foreclosed on, then the listing agent must place it in one of the following categories: Expired, Cancelled, or Withdrawn. In August, 2009 there were 19 closed escrows. During that same time, there were only 8 properties that fell into one of those three categories. Still a high percentage, but not the majority.
In escrow statistics are the newest source of data in real estate. Closed sales numbers are also relevant, and I'll start including at the end of each month, but they represent a 30-60 day delay.
I can't really tell how the number of SS listings in the area have progress because I haven't been recording the numbers but the closed sales have been relatively meaningless the last 9 months, maybe a little increase but it seems too sparactic to come to any conclusions.
January: 15
February: 11
March: 13
April: 11
May: 17
June: 28
July: 16
August: 19
September up to today: 11
Currently Listed: 49
Rolo, I know you already get a lot of slack on this board. However, from a scientific method perspective, you cannot take data and MAKE it significant or
"meaningful" as you said above. The entire point of looking at data is to see if there actually IS a trend or a something that has statistical significance. The easiest way to ruin a study is to manipulate the data to meet your own hypothesis. I'm not going to fully accuse you of this, but you seem to be walking a very fine line in that regard. It is entirely possible that the method you are using to generate your results is flawed due to the obscured nature of short sales. If short sales and organic sales are truly different in nature, putting them in the same data pool, could lead to incorrect results. The GIGO method, if you will.
My 2 cents, but what would I know...??
I was just saying that you can't take the short sales out of the in escrows without taking them out of the active listings as well. How am I manipulating anything? I was doing the exact opposite of that by not leaving out information as suggested. Method to generate my results? I'm posting data. I even took short sales out of the equation and it left a 150% Active v. In Escrow ratio for Aliso Viejo. Please explain how the data is "manipulated" and I will correct.
Pending 52, Active 480. I'm not subtracting the pendings from the actives.
That's not funny or cool.
Sunshine_IHB
New member
stepping_up said:
No. Apparently he needles about grammar but not spelling.
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
no_vaseline said:
Haha, I was just joking.
graphrix_IHB
New member
awgee said:
I laughed.
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
CougBear_IHB
New member
RoLo... the closed # that you list every 4 months or so, is that per month or over that 4 month duration?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
RoLar, why do you use this Active vs. Pending listings? You do realize that all short sales that have submitted offers go into the "pending" category, correct? Besides the fact that these short sales will hang out in the "pending" status for months and months, the majority of them never close and get foreclosed on. So if you want to make the data more accurate, I would exclude short sale listings from the "pending" category. Just a thought. Then you also have to consider that you will get about 10% of non-short sale listings going from "pending" back to "active" status due to various reasons. I rarely like using "back-up" and/or "pending" listings to derive an opinion on the health of the real estate market.RoLar_USC said:
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
CougBear said:
I added the closed listing numbers before every four weeks for the total number of closed escrows that month.
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
USCTrojanCPA said:RoLar, why do you use this Active vs. Pending listings? You do realize that all short sales that have submitted offers go into the "pending" category, correct? Besides the fact that these short sales will hang out in the "pending" status for months and months, the majority of them never close and get foreclosed on. So if you want to make the data more accurate, I would exclude short sale listings from the "pending" category. Just a thought. Then you also have to consider that you will get about 10% of non-short sale listings going from "pending" back to "active" status due to various reasons. I rarely like using "back-up" and/or "pending" listings to derive an opinion on the health of the real estate market.RoLar_USC said:
Excluding the short sales from the pending (in escrow) category would most definitely not make the data more accurate. In an area where 40-50% properties are listed as short sales, you would be ignoring a large number of sales. If you take short sales out of the pending category, the only way to make the data still somewhat meaningfull would be to also take short sales out of the actives. I listed the closed sales numbers previously as requested but didn't get any sort of response.
Again I'll use Aliso Viejo as an example and take short sales out of both sides.
Total number of active non-short sale listings: 50
Total number of non-short sale properties in escrow: 75
So that method gives 150%... Still impressive.
"all short sales that have submitted offers go into the "pending" category" - Completely untrue. Call ten short sales listed in an active city, and ask if they have any offers submitted. I bet at least 6 of the 10 reply that they do. A frequent practice is for the listing agent to place the listing on "Hold Do Not Show" after the property has received offers and submitted them to the bank. Maybe you meant accepted offers. Yes, short sales do take a long time to close escrow, but they also take a long time to go into escrow.
"the majority of them never close and get foreclosed on" - Now I'm not sure how to find the most accurate support for this argument but I'll do my best. If a short sale does not sell and is foreclosed on, then the listing agent must place it in one of the following categories: Expired, Cancelled, or Withdrawn. In August, 2009 there were 19 closed escrows. During that same time, there were only 8 properties that fell into one of those three categories. Still a high percentage, but not the majority.
In escrow statistics are the newest source of data in real estate. Closed sales numbers are also relevant, and I'll start including at the end of each month, but they represent a 30-60 day delay.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
What is the % of SS listed vs SS closed? How does it change from month to month?
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
no_vaseline said:
I can't really tell how the number of SS listings in the area have progress because I haven't been recording the numbers but the closed sales have been relatively meaningless the last 9 months, maybe a little increase but it seems too sparactic to come to any conclusions.
January: 15
February: 11
March: 13
April: 11
May: 17
June: 28
July: 16
August: 19
September up to today: 11
Currently Listed: 49
CougBear_IHB
New member
RoLar_USC said:USCTrojanCPA said:RoLar, why do you use this Active vs. Pending listings? You do realize that all short sales that have submitted offers go into the "pending" category, correct? Besides the fact that these short sales will hang out in the "pending" status for months and months, the majority of them never close and get foreclosed on. So if you want to make the data more accurate, I would exclude short sale listings from the "pending" category. Just a thought. Then you also have to consider that you will get about 10% of non-short sale listings going from "pending" back to "active" status due to various reasons. I rarely like using "back-up" and/or "pending" listings to derive an opinion on the health of the real estate market.RoLar_USC said:
Excluding the short sales from the pending (in escrow) category would most definitely not make the data more accurate. In an area where 40-50% properties are listed as short sales, you would be ignoring a large number of sales. If you take short sales out of the pending category, the only way to make the data still somewhat meaningfull would be to also take short sales out of the actives. I listed the closed sales numbers previously as requested but didn't get any sort of response.
Rolo, I know you already get a lot of slack on this board. However, from a scientific method perspective, you cannot take data and MAKE it significant or
"meaningful" as you said above. The entire point of looking at data is to see if there actually IS a trend or a something that has statistical significance. The easiest way to ruin a study is to manipulate the data to meet your own hypothesis. I'm not going to fully accuse you of this, but you seem to be walking a very fine line in that regard. It is entirely possible that the method you are using to generate your results is flawed due to the obscured nature of short sales. If short sales and organic sales are truly different in nature, putting them in the same data pool, could lead to incorrect results. The GIGO method, if you will.
My 2 cents, but what would I know...??
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
CougBear said:RoLar_USC said:USCTrojanCPA said:RoLar, why do you use this Active vs. Pending listings? You do realize that all short sales that have submitted offers go into the "pending" category, correct? Besides the fact that these short sales will hang out in the "pending" status for months and months, the majority of them never close and get foreclosed on. So if you want to make the data more accurate, I would exclude short sale listings from the "pending" category. Just a thought. Then you also have to consider that you will get about 10% of non-short sale listings going from "pending" back to "active" status due to various reasons. I rarely like using "back-up" and/or "pending" listings to derive an opinion on the health of the real estate market.RoLar_USC said:
Excluding the short sales from the pending (in escrow) category would most definitely not make the data more accurate. In an area where 40-50% properties are listed as short sales, you would be ignoring a large number of sales. If you take short sales out of the pending category, the only way to make the data still somewhat meaningfull would be to also take short sales out of the actives. I listed the closed sales numbers previously as requested but didn't get any sort of response.
Rolo, I know you already get a lot of slack on this board. However, from a scientific method perspective, you cannot take data and MAKE it significant or
"meaningful" as you said above. The entire point of looking at data is to see if there actually IS a trend or a something that has statistical significance. The easiest way to ruin a study is to manipulate the data to meet your own hypothesis. I'm not going to fully accuse you of this, but you seem to be walking a very fine line in that regard. It is entirely possible that the method you are using to generate your results is flawed due to the obscured nature of short sales. If short sales and organic sales are truly different in nature, putting them in the same data pool, could lead to incorrect results. The GIGO method, if you will.
My 2 cents, but what would I know...??
I was just saying that you can't take the short sales out of the in escrows without taking them out of the active listings as well. How am I manipulating anything? I was doing the exact opposite of that by not leaving out information as suggested. Method to generate my results? I'm posting data. I even took short sales out of the equation and it left a 150% Active v. In Escrow ratio for Aliso Viejo. Please explain how the data is "manipulated" and I will correct.
No_Such_Reality_IHB
New member
Robert, help me understand your numbers. If I'm looking at Laguna beach, today on Redfin, I see 480 properties listed. I see 52 under contract. Would your columns today (if using Redfin) be pending 52 active 428? Or would it be pending 52 and active 480?
Similarly, for Irvine, on Redfin I see 310 under contract. (I'm counting that as pending) I see 571 that are not under contract. Would your sheet show pending 310 and active 571 with a percentage of 54.3%?
It looks like you are showing under contract/not under contract as pending/active. Is that correct?
Similarly, for Irvine, on Redfin I see 310 under contract. (I'm counting that as pending) I see 571 that are not under contract. Would your sheet show pending 310 and active 571 with a percentage of 54.3%?
It looks like you are showing under contract/not under contract as pending/active. Is that correct?
RobertLarsen_IHB
New member
No_Such_Reality said:
Pending 52, Active 480. I'm not subtracting the pendings from the actives.
RobertLarsen_IHB
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RobertLarsen_IHB
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RobertLarsen_IHB
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Market Update 10/26/2009
[Enlarge]
61% and still climbing... More and more homes continue to be purchased (In escrow and closed) and inventory continues to shrink. I didn't think I would be saying this with November around the corner but things are looking good. Are people still sticking to the surge of inventory theory or is it dead yet?
[Enlarge]
61% and still climbing... More and more homes continue to be purchased (In escrow and closed) and inventory continues to shrink. I didn't think I would be saying this with November around the corner but things are looking good. Are people still sticking to the surge of inventory theory or is it dead yet?