[quote author="CougBear" date=1252046730][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252022940][quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1251990259][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1251935735][quote author="CougBear" date=1251932925]When I see a city like Aliso Viejo with a percentage like 219.4%, are you saying that there are more than twice as many units in escrow than are even listed right now?
Now again, this isn't taking into account the percentage of units that fall through escrow, correct? To me, a number like this seems impossible. That, or demand was pulled forward in a way that has never been seen before. This could probably better be answered by the real estate experts on the blog, but if demand was TRULY that strong, wouldn't we see some of the biggest price increases EVER in the housing market? Not the declines and concessions that are still being offered...??</blockquote>
Correct, twice as many units in escrow than listed. Keep in mind, in cities like Aliso Viejo, the numbers are skewed due to the fact that they are primarily short sales, and REOs. REOs are not as bad, but short sales skew the data because they extend the average number of days in escrow from the 30-45 days range to more like 60 days, plus they do have a higher probability of falling out of escrow. But, it does not skew the information enough to make the informatino meaningless. If I had to compare apples to apples, Aliso Viejos level of activity is like 125-150% in a city with limited short sales. <--- Purely speculation on my part.
In terms of the prices, keep in mind all this activity is relatively new. Just since March 2, 2009, the ratio has gone from 56.2% to it's current level at 219.4%. And, prices have already begun to feel the effects in Aliso Viejo. Aliso Viejo is only down about 3% from this time last year.
<img src="http://occoastalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Photo3.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>
Instead of hunkering down and worrying about stabilizing employment, we are pushing people into buying homes. With over 3 million homes 60 days behind on their mortgage this ass clown site really is doing a disservice to stupid people. For this site to state the shadow inventory is nothing is claiming over 18 million homes in the US does not count. This website is for the fools and the fools that sell these idiots the dream until prices continue to fall. Look until we see positive job gain sites like this are useless and are just making the brokers money and you are catching the fish hook. Prices are still off by close to 46 percent on properties less than $500k and after 18 months of properties over 500k starting to implode you are just about to see a real blow up in the upper end market. I did read the website and i threw up in mouth on the puffing and shitty spin these a-holes are doing to take advantage of people...</blockquote>
Show me the shadow inventory, and to save time, use Aliso Viejo as the example. Show me something of use or you are just another clown running your mouth. Oh and please do us a favor and try not to put a category like "Waiting to Sell," in your analysis.
"Prices are still off by close to 46 percent on properties less than $500k" - What support does this even give your statement? Are you just trying to throw whatever little statistics you know?
You talk big, but can you back it up?</blockquote>
Again, I'm not a real estate agent/professional, but I do love stats & graphs.
Given the high seasonality of real estate, shouldn't we have seen an actual up-tick in the $/sqft in recent months??? Not just a leveling off? Is there not increased buying pressure in the summer that therefore should drive up $/sqft in addition to total sales?
So, being the non-expert that I am, couldn't it be possible that the recent leveling off shown in your graph isn't actually a bottom? In all actuality, the leveling is just the peak of the summer sales being in-line with offseason sales? If so, wouldn't this then mean that we're in for a big step down in not only sales, but also $/sqft, once we hit September/October? From everything I've ever read, the seasonality of home sales is as given as the sunrise & sunset everyday, no?</blockquote>
You bring up a very good point and in a more normal market what you say is true. But since the market in a lot of cities is broken due to the fact that there are a limited amount of "real" inventory (organic and REO sellers). If inventory were to tick up 10-20%, it would bring to put pressure on home prices.
I was a little liquored last night and turned on the flamethrower to 11. Good times!