INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND

Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Uh... supply chain?
Click to expand...

Price is the intersection of supply & demand - Econ 101

You are only citing half of the equation. 

Overstimulation of demand is the other half, and the President does have control over stimulus spending, as well as who helms the Fed.
Click to expand...

I don't entirely agree  that it's whoever is in office that affects the demand side.

Are you saying that had Trump stayed in office, this would not be happening?

Highly doubtful... people gonna people.
 
...I suppose it is different this time...it's worse!!

Wholesale prices measure rose 9.6% in November from a year ago, the fastest pace on record

Wholesale prices rose 9.6% from a year ago, the highest level going back to November 2010.
The pace was even faster than the 9.2% estimate.
The core producer price index increased at a 6.9% pace, a bit slower than estimates but still the fastest ever in records dating to August 2014.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/who...om-a-year-ago-the-fastest-pace-on-record.html
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Uh... supply chain?
Click to expand...

Price is the intersection of supply & demand - Econ 101

You are only citing half of the equation. 

Overstimulation of demand is the other half, and the President does have control over stimulus spending, as well as who helms the Fed.
Click to expand...

I don't entirely agree  that it's whoever is in office that affects the demand side.

Are you saying that had Trump stayed in office, this would not be happening?

Highly doubtful... people gonna people.
Click to expand...

If Trump were still President, I would happily criticize his economic policy if it were as lackluster as Biden's.

The fact is Biden wanted the job of President and he now gets the blame for the things that happen under his presidency.  Obama loved to blame Bush for the economy he inherited and then tried to take credit for the Trump economy after he left.  That is the opposite of leadership.  Biden is equally lacking in leadership, but doesn't have the luxury of blaming Trump because he wouldn't be President without Covid disrupting the economy and causing social disorder.

The problem is you can't use economic stimulus to claw your way out of a supply chain disruption.  It simply doesn't work, and in fact, makes the problem worse.  They are using the policy tools of the prior recession in a completely unaware and reckless way to fight a problem that no longer even exists (risk of deflation). 

Why are all these smart people foolishly doing that, you ask?  Because in the short term, free money is politically popular. 

Unfortunately, now the bill is coming due.
 
Doesn't really answer my question.

Had Trump stayed in office, how would have this been avoided?

Virus still gonna virus, supply chain still gonna supply chain, consumers still gonna consume.
 
I think we would have followed a Florida like open economy.  Schools would have opened sooner and a war would have broken out with the teachers unions. You can argue about how that may have caused or prevented deaths but we will never know.  He also would have further encouraged the energy industry. I think prices there would not be this high but again...we'll never know.  Can't prove a negative.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Doesn't really answer my question.

Had Trump stayed in office, how would have this been avoided?

Virus still gonna virus, supply chain still gonna supply chain, consumers still gonna consume.
Click to expand...

How can anyone answer a hypothetical?  Nobody knows what would have happened, but this is what I would like to have seen:

Trump and his cabinet were more focused on negotiating down-in-the-weeds business issues like trade deals and reshoring manufacturing.  Working with different constituents on the supply chain choke points would be similar.  Talk to and negotiate directly with businesses to figure out exactly what needs to be done to facilitate commerce.

Second, stop stimulating demand for no good reason.  Consumers will only consume if they have the disposable cash to do so.

Third, stop fueling the worker shortage with a myriad of bad policies - unemployment bonuses, eviction moratoriums, student loan moratoriums, and vaccine mandates.

Fourth, promote domestic energy independence by embracing oil production.
 
Looks like Bloomberg attended the White house "get on board" meeting about better press treatment of the President...

Bloomberg is mercilessly mocked after advising Americans to 'spend their pay check immediately' and 'borrow lots of money' to tackle inflation in similar advice given to economic basket case Argentina
Bloomberg article used advice from Argentinians as a template for Americans
Among the handy tips were 'negotiate a pay rise - or two' and 'buy a house'
Article was savaged by critics who said it was hopelessly out of touch
Comes as Americans are facing the highest rate of inflation in 40 years
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ked-advising-spend-pay-check-immediately.html
 
morekaos said:
I think we would have followed a Florida like open economy.  Schools would have opened sooner and a war would have broken out with the teachers unions. You can argue about how that may have caused or prevented deaths but we will never know.  He also would have further encouraged the energy industry. I think prices there would not be this high but again...we'll never know.  Can't prove a negative.
Click to expand...

Short memory. Economy was closed down during previous admin's watch.

Conjecture is just that... that's why neither you or LL can answer me with a definitive "No... inflation would not happen".

This is what I mean, doesn't matter who is in office... life is gonna life.

And to LL's point, that's the one thing I liked about Trump, trying to fix the inequity of trade with China... but really... just like businesses leave Cali to reduce costs, companies continue to use China for the same reasons (morekaos can't have it both ways).
 
irvinehomeowner said:
morekaos said:
I think we would have followed a Florida like open economy.  Schools would have opened sooner and a war would have broken out with the teachers unions. You can argue about how that may have caused or prevented deaths but we will never know.  He also would have further encouraged the energy industry. I think prices there would not be this high but again...we'll never know.  Can't prove a negative.
Click to expand...

Short memory. Economy was closed down during previous admin's watch.

Conjecture is just that... that's why neither you or LL can answer me with a definitive "No... inflation would not happen".

This is what I mean, doesn't matter who is in office... life is gonna life.

And to LL's point, that's the one thing I liked about Trump, trying to fix the inequity of trade with China... but really... just like businesses leave Cali to reduce costs, companies continue to use China for the same reasons (morekaos can't have it both ways).
Click to expand...

The only thing is that Trump wasn't trying to fix the inequity of trade with China. He always had beef with China and used this opportunity to flex. Really, the tariffs against China ended up hurting American consumers more than China. Trump didn't understand how tariffs work.
 
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Uh... supply chain?
Click to expand...

Price is the intersection of supply & demand - Econ 101

You are only citing half of the equation. 

Overstimulation of demand is the other half, and the President does have control over stimulus spending, as well as who helms the Fed.
Click to expand...

I don't entirely agree  that it's whoever is in office that affects the demand side.

Are you saying that had Trump stayed in office, this would not be happening?

Highly doubtful... people gonna people.
Click to expand...

If Trump were still President, I would happily criticize his economic policy if it were as lackluster as Biden's.

The fact is Biden wanted the job of President and he now gets the blame for the things that happen under his presidency.  Obama loved to blame Bush for the economy he inherited and then tried to take credit for the Trump economy after he left.  That is the opposite of leadership.  Biden is equally lacking in leadership, but doesn't have the luxury of blaming Trump because he wouldn't be President without Covid disrupting the economy and causing social disorder.

The problem is you can't use economic stimulus to claw your way out of a supply chain disruption.  It simply doesn't work, and in fact, makes the problem worse.  They are using the policy tools of the prior recession in a completely unaware and reckless way to fight a problem that no longer even exists (risk of deflation). 

Why are all these smart people foolishly doing that, you ask?  Because in the short term, free money is politically popular. 

Unfortunately, now the bill is coming due.
Click to expand...
I don?t think that you understand that US economic policies would not have stopped inflation from occurring. How are you going to control china/vietnam shutting down its ports? What about how much OPEC can drill? What can you do when shipping a container from Asia to US use to cost $1500 and is now $10,000? What about the lack of truck drivers? Outdated and inefficient ports in the US? Don?t tell me lack of truck drivers is because of stimulus as we were lacking them before the pandemic.

Point is, a lot of the issues that exist now is beyond the power of the US gov. No individual gov would have prevented this and the idea that you feel that way means you don?t quite understand the idea of globalization.
 
sleepy5136 said:
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
Uh... supply chain?
Click to expand...

Price is the intersection of supply & demand - Econ 101

You are only citing half of the equation. 

Overstimulation of demand is the other half, and the President does have control over stimulus spending, as well as who helms the Fed.
Click to expand...

I don't entirely agree  that it's whoever is in office that affects the demand side.

Are you saying that had Trump stayed in office, this would not be happening?

Highly doubtful... people gonna people.
Click to expand...

If Trump were still President, I would happily criticize his economic policy if it were as lackluster as Biden's.

The fact is Biden wanted the job of President and he now gets the blame for the things that happen under his presidency.  Obama loved to blame Bush for the economy he inherited and then tried to take credit for the Trump economy after he left.  That is the opposite of leadership.  Biden is equally lacking in leadership, but doesn't have the luxury of blaming Trump because he wouldn't be President without Covid disrupting the economy and causing social disorder.

The problem is you can't use economic stimulus to claw your way out of a supply chain disruption.  It simply doesn't work, and in fact, makes the problem worse.  They are using the policy tools of the prior recession in a completely unaware and reckless way to fight a problem that no longer even exists (risk of deflation). 

Why are all these smart people foolishly doing that, you ask?  Because in the short term, free money is politically popular. 

Unfortunately, now the bill is coming due.
Click to expand...
I don?t think that you understand that US economic policies would not have stopped inflation from occurring. How are you going to control china/vietnam shutting down its ports? What about how much OPEC can drill? What can you do when shipping a container from Asia to US use to cost $1500 and is now $10,000? What about the lack of truck drivers? Outdated and inefficient ports in the US? Don?t tell me lack of truck drivers is because of stimulus as we were lacking them before the pandemic.

Point is, a lot of the issues that exist now is beyond the power of the US gov. No individual gov would have prevented this and the idea that you feel that way means you don?t quite understand the idea of globalization.
Click to expand...

Having higher inflation during a recovery is normal, but what is occurring now is not normal.  I disagree that that government is helpless to do anything.  There are a whole host of incremental steps they could be taking to reduce the level of inflation from the highs we are seeing right now. 

If they were doing everything in their power to fight this and it was still occurring, then you would have a point, but there are still a variety of pro-inflationary policies in place as a misguided response to the covid pandemic.

Why is the Fed buying mortgage bonds at all if housing is going up by 20% per year?  That is the definition of insanity.
Why is Biden discouraging oil production domestically, while begging autocratic governments to release more oil?  Insanity.
Why is the government creating subsidies and incentives to discourage people from working during the worst worker shortage in memory?  More insanity.
 
Trying to tax the energy industry is tantamount to the ridiculous and failed "Windfall Profits Tax"  of the Carter administration.  Also sold as a funding mechanism for the "Solar Bank"  All failed, added to costs and inflation and the fools are committed to making all the same mistakes...Reagan Revolution here we come...

Dems Crammed an Energy Tax into the Build Back Better Boondoggle

You best take a step back because House Democrats built a new energy tax into HR5376 and it is not going to make your life better. But it will make it more expensive.

HR5376, better-known as the not so better Build Back Better bill, is a dumpster fire of checkboxes for Progs. One of them is a methane fee. This tax on ?emissions? will find its way into your energy and heating bills because inflation and rising energy prices haven?t been enough of a burden on your budget.
https://granitegrok.com/blog/2021/1...rgy-tax-into-the-build-back-better-boondoggle

The Biden administration?s budget proposals have several provisions focused on raising taxes on the U.S. fossil fuel industry.

These proposals largely depart from neutral tax policy and intentionally target the industry.

Internal Revenue Service data does not indicate any substantial tax preference for the fossil fuel industry, rather indicating the industry pays relatively high levels of tax.

Raising taxes on U.S. production and ownership of fossil fuel, both domestically and abroad, mainly disadvantages U.S. companies and workers in favor of foreign suppliers.

Taxing fossil fuel consumption, for example through user fees or more comprehensively through a carbon tax, would avoid the problem of creating preferences for foreign-owned fossil fuel.
https://taxfoundation.org/biden-fossil-fuel-tax/
 
Everybody keeps saying supply chain, but every port I check shows higher container shipments than 2019.

Likewise, Beef, Chicken etc isn?t a supply crunch, producers (aka Farmers) aren?t making more than back in 2018.  The prices are purely the result of vertical consolidation and pricing power of the meat packers.

If we really dig in, we will find the inflation isn?t really inflation from demand or even real supply constriction but pricing power and market barriers due to industry consolidation.
 
nosuchreality said:
Everybody keeps saying supply chain, but every port I check shows higher container shipments than 2019.

Likewise, Beef, Chicken etc isn?t a supply crunch, producers (aka Farmers) aren?t making more than back in 2018.  The prices are purely the result of vertical consolidation and pricing power of the meat packers.

If we really dig in, we will find the inflation isn?t really inflation from demand or even real supply constriction but pricing power and market barriers due to industry consolidation.
Click to expand...
That?s my theory too. But no evidence to say that. I feel like certain manufactures are using inflation as an excuse to Jack up prices.

However, appliances specifically are having really long lead times for whatever reason. Builder has told me GE fridges are 6-7 month lead time and subzero and wolf are 11-12 months.
 

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I'm enjoying this..you?  $5.00 gas here we come...."Thank you sir, may I have another?"...

Now brace for $4 gas: Spring travel, annual refinery maintenance and Bidenflation could make drivers feel 'real pain' at the pumps this year
A fuel price expert has warned that inflation, spring travel and routine annual maintenance could push prices above $4 a gallon from March
At present the nationwide average is $3.314 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association
California currently has the highest-priced gas at $4.650, while Texas has the lowest at $2.942
Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum at GasBuddy, said that prices were expected to rise and in Californian cities could be above $5 a gallon
Inflation is currently at levels not seen since the summer of 1982, at 7 percent - causing a headache for Joe Biden on the anniversary of his presidency
He said the prices will likely drop after the summer and fall below $3 a gallon by the 2022 holiday season
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...intenance-Bidenflation-drivers-real-pain.html
https://youtu.be/bIZoVO8ZyyQ
 
Pile on top of that Rent and mortgages and you have quite a bonfire....

Worst US inflation since ?82 is huge underestimate
Government?s CPI says the cost of shelter rose 4% in the past year but home prices and rents are up nearly 20%

Shelter accounts for about a third of American household expenditure, and the cost of buying or renting shelter is up nearly 20% over the past year. Yet the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for shelter reported Jan. 12 by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an increase of just 4.2 over the past year.

Private surveys conducted by the big rental sites, Zillow and Apartmentlist.com, show increases of 13% to 18% during 2021, and the Case-Shiller Index of US home prices jumped 18% in the year through October.

Part of the discrepancy involves a simple time lag. The US government looks at the present cost of housing while the private rental surveys register the cost of a new rental. It takes a while for leases to expire and new, higher-cost leases to take effect. Changes in the Apartmentlist.com rent index predict changes in the CPI shelter index with lags up to eight months. That explains at least part of the divergence of the CPI rent inflation number from the private rental surveys.

This time, the CPI rent inflation rate of 4.2% undershot the private rental data. As old leases expire and new leases are written, the CPI index for shelter should rise by 14 percentage points. Shelter makes up 32.3% of the Consumer Price Index, so 14 percentage points in the cost of shelter would add another 4.5 percentage points to the headline inflation number.

That's an additional 4.5 percentage points on top of the 7% annual rate of CPI inflation. In other words, accurate accounting for real-world shelter costs would put consumer inflation in the US around 10% a year. And double-digit inflation would cause a market meltdown.

The probability is that inflation will run closer to 10% than 5% for the first half of 2022, pushing the Fed to tighten more than investors now expect.
https://menafn.com/1103530469/Worst-US-inflation-since-82-is-huge-underestimate
https://youtu.be/P_BcYjEUxHQ
 
We are only .25 cents away. Five dollars looks better.

Kidding aside, I can see staycation. After all, going on airplane is a pain in the behinds.

You got drunken disorders, people refuse to follow rules, kids throwing up on you. And vacation is over.
 
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