INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
- Thread starter morekaos
- Start date
sgip
Well-known member
Very true. I'm seeing more "5" handle gas station prices in my area than ever before.
For the Fed Watchers regarding the direction of rates....
Our present inflation scare first began raging with the March 2021 CPI, primarily because the Fed data is a 12 month average. March 2020 was a turning point for economics because of the pandemic's impact on the US economy. In simple terms - March 2020 was a zero due to the shutdown. Feb and March 2021 were 10's because of the reopening of the economy, giving the appearance of a 3-4 percent inflation rate.
We're approaching a full 12 months of what are statistically (and, yes, in real terms) higher prices. The Feds average is going to be 2021 vs 2022, a "smoother" statistic than comparing 2020 economics to 2021. Example: Feb 2021 being a 10, Feb 2022 being a 10 so we won't see a giant rise in inflation reporting....
Yes, I fully expect the Fed to raise the rates they control soon. I'd also not be surprised to read lots of "inflation isn't as bad" reporting by the MSM once we get February, March, and April 2022 CPI data. Don't be fooled though. Inflation IS bad statistically and in real terms. Most of our present inflation issues IMHO are caused by scarcity (replacement production of goods wasn't up to speed in 2020 and 2021) and the flow through of high wages down to final production.
We will see who is right in the February, March, and April CPI and PPI releases.
My .0002c adjusted for inflation.
For the Fed Watchers regarding the direction of rates....
Our present inflation scare first began raging with the March 2021 CPI, primarily because the Fed data is a 12 month average. March 2020 was a turning point for economics because of the pandemic's impact on the US economy. In simple terms - March 2020 was a zero due to the shutdown. Feb and March 2021 were 10's because of the reopening of the economy, giving the appearance of a 3-4 percent inflation rate.
We're approaching a full 12 months of what are statistically (and, yes, in real terms) higher prices. The Feds average is going to be 2021 vs 2022, a "smoother" statistic than comparing 2020 economics to 2021. Example: Feb 2021 being a 10, Feb 2022 being a 10 so we won't see a giant rise in inflation reporting....
Yes, I fully expect the Fed to raise the rates they control soon. I'd also not be surprised to read lots of "inflation isn't as bad" reporting by the MSM once we get February, March, and April 2022 CPI data. Don't be fooled though. Inflation IS bad statistically and in real terms. Most of our present inflation issues IMHO are caused by scarcity (replacement production of goods wasn't up to speed in 2020 and 2021) and the flow through of high wages down to final production.
We will see who is right in the February, March, and April CPI and PPI releases.
My .0002c adjusted for inflation.
morekaos
Well-known member
I'm Shocked! Shocked that there is inflation going on here!!...Brandon told us it was only "transitory"...
New Yorkers and lawmakers howl over utility hikes; Con Ed says they?re not to blame
City and state lawmakers are amped up over a sudden rate spike that many New Yorkers are now seeing on their Con Ed energy bills ? charges that could make it impossible for some to afford rent and their utilities.
Brandy Bora, a corporate executive who rents a loft in Greenpoint, said her family?s Con Ed bill shot up from $300 in December to $850 last month ? an increase, which, if sustained, will mean they?ll eventually be forced to move.
?I don?t even know what to do,? Bora, who lives with her husband and their 6-year-old daughter, told the Daily News on Tuesday. ?I literally can?t pay that.?
Both Democratic lawmakers are so distressed with the calls they?ve been getting from residents that they demanded on Tuesday that the state?s Public Service Commission direct the Department of Public Service to investigate the sudden and precipitous rate hikes.
?The extreme overnight increases in our constituents? energy bills are simply outrageous,? Restler said. ?It?s the commission?s job to protect New Yorkers when utility companies try to pass on fluctuations in the marketplace onto consumers, and we urgently need the PSC to intervene.?
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/po...0220209-uv7d734ag5frnlpkpwrqjhbkgu-story.html
https://youtu.be/SjbPi00k_ME
New Yorkers and lawmakers howl over utility hikes; Con Ed says they?re not to blame
City and state lawmakers are amped up over a sudden rate spike that many New Yorkers are now seeing on their Con Ed energy bills ? charges that could make it impossible for some to afford rent and their utilities.
Brandy Bora, a corporate executive who rents a loft in Greenpoint, said her family?s Con Ed bill shot up from $300 in December to $850 last month ? an increase, which, if sustained, will mean they?ll eventually be forced to move.
?I don?t even know what to do,? Bora, who lives with her husband and their 6-year-old daughter, told the Daily News on Tuesday. ?I literally can?t pay that.?
Both Democratic lawmakers are so distressed with the calls they?ve been getting from residents that they demanded on Tuesday that the state?s Public Service Commission direct the Department of Public Service to investigate the sudden and precipitous rate hikes.
?The extreme overnight increases in our constituents? energy bills are simply outrageous,? Restler said. ?It?s the commission?s job to protect New Yorkers when utility companies try to pass on fluctuations in the marketplace onto consumers, and we urgently need the PSC to intervene.?
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/po...0220209-uv7d734ag5frnlpkpwrqjhbkgu-story.html
https://youtu.be/SjbPi00k_ME
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Soylent Green Is People said:
BUT...... when we do get stuff back in stock are prices going to drop? I'm thinking no, not without a recession. Companies will be happy to have figured out if they limit supply they can keep prices higher.
sgip
Well-known member
A greater supply of goods can have a lowering of prices. Gasoline for example has had about $1.0 worth of swing based on supply and demand.
As for basic consumer goods, no, higher prices are here to stay given a $15-$16-$??? minimum and generally higher wages across the employment spectrum.
We'll see.....
As for basic consumer goods, no, higher prices are here to stay given a $15-$16-$??? minimum and generally higher wages across the employment spectrum.
We'll see.....
morekaos
Well-known member
Here is a classic, real world lesson in supply/demand. Watch things reverse quickly (inflation)
Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded
February 08, 2022 Chris Fountain
Skiers are complaining about the massive crowds and mismanagement at Vail Resorts in Colorado after the major skiing company slashed season ticket prices and sold a record 2.1 million passes this season - 76 percent more than in the 2019-2020 season.
Vail Resorts dropped prices by 20 percent for its multi-resort season pass, the Epic Pass, from $999 to $819. The company also changed the price for its smaller circuit season pass, Epic Local Pass, from $749 to $619, in March 2021 for the current 2021/2022 season.
The mountain resort company has a portfolio of 40 resorts worldwide and sold a record 2.1 million passes this season after the drastic dip in prices.
Vail Resorts is now the largest ski area operator in the United States with properties in Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont and beyond. The passes, which are no longer for sale, give snow-lovers access to dozens of resorts across the U.S.
The increased sales brought the company a 76 percent jump from the 2019?20 pass sales and raised earnings 30 percent from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2021.
But it was apparent in recent photos posted to social media, where skiers noted a very stark contrast between crowds and lines in past seasons versus this year, that the company isn't able to keep up with the record number of people now that passes are more financially accessible, among other factors.
https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2022/2/8/nobody-goes-there-anymore-its-too-crowded
Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded
February 08, 2022 Chris Fountain
Skiers are complaining about the massive crowds and mismanagement at Vail Resorts in Colorado after the major skiing company slashed season ticket prices and sold a record 2.1 million passes this season - 76 percent more than in the 2019-2020 season.
Vail Resorts dropped prices by 20 percent for its multi-resort season pass, the Epic Pass, from $999 to $819. The company also changed the price for its smaller circuit season pass, Epic Local Pass, from $749 to $619, in March 2021 for the current 2021/2022 season.
The mountain resort company has a portfolio of 40 resorts worldwide and sold a record 2.1 million passes this season after the drastic dip in prices.
Vail Resorts is now the largest ski area operator in the United States with properties in Colorado, California, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont and beyond. The passes, which are no longer for sale, give snow-lovers access to dozens of resorts across the U.S.
The increased sales brought the company a 76 percent jump from the 2019?20 pass sales and raised earnings 30 percent from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2021.
But it was apparent in recent photos posted to social media, where skiers noted a very stark contrast between crowds and lines in past seasons versus this year, that the company isn't able to keep up with the record number of people now that passes are more financially accessible, among other factors.
https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2022/2/8/nobody-goes-there-anymore-its-too-crowded
Soylent Green Is People said:
1. Companies that are not required to pay a certain minimum wage requirement are paying high.
2. In addition, not that many people are talking about is people are sharing how much they make on social media the analysts said that did not happen before. (no offense to people not looking what the rate you should be making, then you are leaving money on the table or sleeping or maybe just dont care)
Skiing has always been an expensive activity but the increases over the past few years are crazy. Yet, there is so much demand because there is just so much money out there. There are some resorts (very few it seems) that limit the number of skiers on the mountain. We are going next week (not to Vail) - fingers crossed
morekaos
Well-known member
There's panic in the stands...finding Religion,(figuring out the virtues of tax cuts) ...the last refuge of a scoundrel. ;D ;D >
Democrats propose federal gas tax holiday ahead of midterm elections
Democrats up for reelection look to address voters' concerns ahead of midterms.
Two Senate Democrats up for reelection proposed a bill on Wednesday to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax through the end of 2022, as millions of Americans grapple with the economic impacts of surging oil prices.
The Gas Prices Relief Act from Sens. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., and Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., would suspend the $18.4 cents per gallon federal gas tax through Jan. 1, 2023, according to a summary of the proposal shared with ABC News.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dem...s-tax-holiday-ahead-midterm/story?id=82756082
https://youtu.be/WXB1JlsW3VY
Democrats propose federal gas tax holiday ahead of midterm elections
Democrats up for reelection look to address voters' concerns ahead of midterms.
Two Senate Democrats up for reelection proposed a bill on Wednesday to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax through the end of 2022, as millions of Americans grapple with the economic impacts of surging oil prices.
The Gas Prices Relief Act from Sens. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., and Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., would suspend the $18.4 cents per gallon federal gas tax through Jan. 1, 2023, according to a summary of the proposal shared with ABC News.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dem...s-tax-holiday-ahead-midterm/story?id=82756082
https://youtu.be/WXB1JlsW3VY
zubs
Well-known member
morekaos said:
This story reminds me of the Huntington Library.
Tickets are $25, but every first THURSDAY of the month it's free.
You have to reserve those free tickets in advance.
Well on those Thursdays it's crowded to hell
I would rather pay $25 and go there with less people.
zovall said:
Outside online article: Vail Resorts Sold a Record Number of Passes. Now Their Ski Areas Are Facing a Logistical Nightmare.
Employees fear the corporate behemoth bit off more than it could chew, while pass holders cry foul about overcrowding and reduced hours
Eleven months after announcing its record sales, Vail is mired in a seemingly endless barrage of complaints, social media vitriol, and negative news stories.
https://www.outsideonline.com/outdo.../vail-resorts-record-ski-passes-overcrowding/
There is too much to post regarding this topic. If your interested in the alleged complaints by employees and guests click the link.
I am just reacting to the headline and a paragraph highlighted in bold in the article. They made a big price cut. (What did the expect? Less people to show up) To me does not sound like an inflation problem. Maybe more of a pricing, scheduling, operational , guest forecasting, overcrowding issue.
morekaos
Well-known member
eyephone said:
I did not post this to get into the labor issues. Simple model to see that lowering prices increases demand (for anything). In this case demand rose a bit too much. Prices will rise to choke off demand and bring the crowds into balance. Same can be said for bigger more complex systems where inflation and interest rates will have a similar balancing affect....Rates are going up and probably more that people suspect. Said that more than a year ago when inflation started and was erroneously or stupidly called "transient".
sleepy5136
Well-known member
I honestly don't know how anyone can live on $15-$16/hr as a full time job in most places in CA. Maybe some teenage kid at Handels doing a part time job. Getting paid min + tips is different story though.Soylent Green Is People said:
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Ready2Downsize said:
Actually... that's what I worry about.
People still buy, even at higher prices (sounds like Irvine real estate), so why would they lower prices?
sgip
Well-known member
High inflation and high Fed rates may lead to recessions.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales
We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.
The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.
These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.
Recessions lead to unemployment.
Unemployment should mean more distress sales/foreclosures/short sales
We live however in a "no-consequence" world where you cannot be foreclosed upon, and "why make a payment when the government will?" morality has run amok. That's an unrealistic and unsustainable economic viewpoint. At some point in time during a recession, more homes at a lower price will come to market.
The never ending buyer cash that lead to high prices in the 2000's were due to "liar loans". The 2008-2010 housing recovery came from hedgies and foreign cash buying bulk. The 2020 foreclosure epidemic was prevented by forbearance measures and taxpayer bailouts of landlords / small businesses. We printed and deferred our way out the 2020 crash. We would be in a much different place if these deferrals weren't in place.
These same measures may be deployed to keep housing prices high, but they cannot be guaranteed to arrive in time or to work. If none of these measures reoccur, housing prices will fall until we see a balance between seller inventory and buyer acceptance of current prices.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Soylent Green Is People said:
I would welcome a more balances market. This hot seller's market makes even bad realtors look good. Good agents shine in a balanced.
BlackKnight
New member
USCTrojanCPA said:
Come on Martin. You know you want the market to be seller market so brokers can maximize their pockets.