How soon until Bitcoin crashes?

Man, wish I had a reliable way to short this crap.

Bitcoin Bulls Walloped by 50% Crash to Below $10,000

Bitcoin's extraordinary price collapse continued in European trading Wednesday, pulling the world's best-known cryptocurrency below the $10,000 mark and wiping billions from the market value of digital alternatives around the world.

Bitcoin prices broke through $10,000 today to trade at about $9,500, according to Coindesk. That marks a stunning 50% crash from highs achieved on Dec. 18.

The slump has not only dragged bitcoin to a six-week low, it's also pulled rivals such as Ripple and Ethereum more than 34% and 43% lower so far this week, taking more than $150 billion from the 'market cap" of the world's three largest cryptocurrencies in just three days, according to coinmarketcap data.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14451645/1/bitcoin-sheds-70-billion-this-week-as-global-cryptocurrencies-crumble.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
 
Not Bitcoin, but in other "alt" currency news...

BitConnect Investors Left in the Lurch as Token's Price Drops 90%
The price of BitConnect's controversial cryptocurrency has cratered following Tuesday's news that its lending and exchange operation is shutting down ? and investors have been unable to sell their tokens despite claims the site would stay online this week.

The closure of BitConnect's lending and exchange platform was a major development given that its sales pitch prominently features the promised returns from lending out the currency, known as BCC, via the site. After the announcement, the price of BCC tanked on the few public markets on which the cryptocurrency trades.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, BCC was trading above $400 at the start of 2018, yet in the wake of Tuesday's bombshell, the price has fallen by more than 90%, trading at roughly $17.25 per coin as of press time

Akin to high-yield investment plans, BitConnect touted larger returns based on the amount loaned (users would deposit bitcoin and buy BCC in order to lend).

As might be expected, BitConnect drew comparisons to cryptocurrency investment schemes such as OneCoin, which was widely believed to be a pyramid scheme.

The allegation that BitConnect is a Ponzi scheme ? in which earlier investors are effectively rewarded with the proceeds of new investors ? gained traction in recent weeks as state regulators in the U.S. issued cease-and-desist letters to the outfit in connection with an initial coin offering.
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I went to BitConnect's website and their High Yield Investment Plan promises returns of 0.25% PER DAY.  That's about 7.5% per month for a high yield "loan" to somebody.  Who would borrow at those rates?  Nobody outside of a check cashing business.

They also made extensive use of affiliate links to draw new "investors" in.

Basically, the founders of the currency created this buzz with high yield investments, drew people in rapidly with affiliate links, and pumped the price of the currency up before anonymously cashing their share out in Bitcoin.  Once the ponzi scheme ended, the price crashed by 90%.

Nobody knows who founded the company.
 
Another fun bubble chart comparing Bitcoin to other manias.  Notice the dotcom bubble is barely a blip on this chart.

800x-1.png

 
A major bitcoin conference is no longer accepting bitcoin payments because the fees and lag have gotten so bad
For all the hype around bitcoin right now, it's easy to overlook an important fact: It doesn't actually work very well as a currency.

While interest in the digital currency has exploded over the last 12 months, pushing its price up from $800 to $15,000, the network has buckled under the strain. Users face fees of upwards of $30 on every transaction, which can take hours to process.

In fact, it has gotten so bad that even a major bitcoin conference has stopped accepting bitcoin payments for tickets altogether.

The North American Bitcoin Conference will be held in Miami on January 18-19, with last minute tickets going for $1,000 a pop. But would-be attendees can no longer pay for a ticket in bitcoin or in any other cryptocurrencies.
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http://www.businessinsider.com/bitc...epting-bitcoin-network-fees-congestion-2018-1
 
The price of Bitcoin briefly touched $7,700 today which put it 60% below the peak value from only 6 weeks ago.

Several analysts are now predicting a price of $5,000 or lower.  If you had said that two weeks ago, the financial press would have scoffed at the idea, now not so much.
 
Now that the price is below $7,000 I'm wondering how my friends that are "true believers" are processing this crash.  I've never tried to convince anybody outside of TI that this was a fool's gambit mainly because I don't want to waste time trying to persuade people that are unpersuadable.  This was a key indicator that we were in a bubble.  Back in November/December you could not have said anything to convince the crypto crowd that this was going to end badly.

I've had several associates ask why I wasn't investing in Bitcoin and I would simply say it was too volatile for me.  That seemed to be the only acceptable answer.  In their minds, I'm sure they viewed me as a coward or a fool, but anyway they couldn't argue with it.  In reality, going against the crowd is the farthest thing from cowardice.
 
So Halos are you expecting this crash to reach an 80% loss before bottoming?  It looks like that's what happened in 2014.

Also, looking at your second chart, the launch of Coinbase was the catalyst for the current run of Bitcoin.  It's what allowed so many clueless speculators to jump into the market without many technical hurdles to deal with.  It would be like the launch of the New York Stock Exchange for stock investors, or the advent of online trading in the 90's which contributed to the tech bubble.

The only way Bitcoin goes up from here is if new blood enters the market, creating more demand than supply.  Do you expect another market changing event like the launch of Coinbase to be the catalyst this time?
 
Bitcoin always crashes in January as the Chinese take money out before the Chinese New Year.

Coinbase is just the gateway drug...the real trading and volume takes place on exchanges such as Binance (where I trade alt coins).

2zoj7ub.jpg


There are so many angles to cryptocurrency, one of them is the ability for Chinese to launder their money via crypto. If you believe Bitcoin is going to zero, you also need to believe that capital controls in China will work.

A lot of people will FOMO hard again as the price climbs (as it is now) and panic buy. We'll blow past 20K this year no problem. It may go down again to 5K, or we could see 12K by Monday...who knows but the long term trend is not Bitcoin going to zero.
 
Here is a snapshot I took of whales playing around near the bottom last week on Binance. Order for 77 BTC near 7K

sc3zom.jpg
 
If you want to dabble your feet Liar Loan, there are lots of great companies forming in the new tech space. One of my favorites is Quantstamp (ticker QSP)...they are based in San Francisco, and audit smart contracts on the Blockchain (notably Ethereum and EOS based smart contracts). You have to pay for their services with their Token...Fiat -> QSP which is what gives it values. Once the QSP token is submitted to Quantstamp, they burn half of them, so the circulating supply is constantly going down. The cost of an audit is always the same amount in Fiat though 20K.
https://quantstamp.com/
https://twitter.com/quantstamp?lang=en

 
binance is great for alt coin trading, but is definitely not where the "real" trading is for btc and eth.  Bitfinex and GDAX/Coinbase have much higher trade volume. 

I've been scalp trading BTC/ETH on GDAX it's been quite good during this bear market.  Looking to go long again soon.

Halos, hit me up via pm. Good to see I'm not the only one in this space.
 
Halos said:
There are so many angles to cryptocurrency, one of them is the ability for Chinese to launder their money via crypto. If you believe Bitcoin is going to zero, you also need to believe that capital controls in China will work.

A lot of people will FOMO hard again as the price climbs (as it is now) and panic buy. We'll blow past 20K this year no problem. It may go down again to 5K, or we could see 12K by Monday...who knows but the long term trend is not Bitcoin going to zero.
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I don't necessarily think the value is going to zero.  It will continue to have value as a black market transaction system.  If world governments somehow find a way to de-anonymize the data, then I could see it going to zero because at that point the bad actors will move on to other "currencies".

However, as an investor I think Bitcoin has zero intrinsic value.  There's no cashflow and no value as a commodity.  Most buyers couldn't even explain what it is you own when purchasing bitcoin. 

It's also not scarce as the blockchain is open source and there are currently at least 2,000 cryptocurrencies in existence.  Bitcoin may not go to zero but 99.9% of the other currencies that people are speculating on will.

All that said, you could be right about the short term prospects.  If enough people believe the price will reach $20,000 this year, then it will.  The investing thesis for bitcoin is one of faith in its future prospects.

It's also possible that this is the end of the road as a lot of people got burned buying in December and lost their shorts in the recent crash.  How much remaining FOMO exists is hard to say.
 
id_rather_be_racing said:
binance is great for alt coin trading, but is definitely not where the "real" trading is for btc and eth.  Bitfinex and GDAX/Coinbase have much higher trade volume. 

I've been scalp trading BTC/ETH on GDAX it's been quite good during this bear market.  Looking to go long again soon.

Halos, hit me up via pm. Good to see I'm not the only one in this space.
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GDAX has good volume, but Binance I think just surpassed everything to become the largest exchange in the world, and 2nd largest for BTC

Yeah I figured there had to be some Hodlers in here besides me...haha.

ml5f7r.jpg


I consolidated for the storm into just a few coins tokens:
QSP
POWR
Ethos
Ethereum
Achain

Will start to branch out again here shortly...gonna be a great year!
 
Liar Loan said:
Halos said:
There are so many angles to cryptocurrency, one of them is the ability for Chinese to launder their money via crypto. If you believe Bitcoin is going to zero, you also need to believe that capital controls in China will work.

A lot of people will FOMO hard again as the price climbs (as it is now) and panic buy. We'll blow past 20K this year no problem. It may go down again to 5K, or we could see 12K by Monday...who knows but the long term trend is not Bitcoin going to zero.
Click to expand...

I don't necessarily think the value is going to zero.  It will continue to have value as a black market transaction system.  If world governments somehow find a way to de-anonymize the data, then I could see it going to zero because at that point the bad actors will move on to other "currencies".

However, as an investor I think Bitcoin has zero intrinsic value.  There's no cashflow and no value as a commodity.  Most buyers couldn't even explain what it is you own when purchasing bitcoin. 

It's also not scarce as the blockchain is open source and there are currently at least 2,000 cryptocurrencies in existence.  Bitcoin may not go to zero but 99.9% of the other currencies that people are speculating on will.

All that said, you could be right about the short term prospects.  If enough people believe the price will reach $20,000 this year, then it will.  The investing thesis for bitcoin is one of faith in its future prospects.

It's also possible that this is the end of the road as a lot of people got burned buying in December and lost their shorts in the recent crash.  How much remaining FOMO exists is hard to say.
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I used to be like you Liar Loan...got into it in 2017 thankfully before the big run up and crash. I won't try to change your mind, but might want to consider getting into the space for coins/tokens other than Bitcoin if you're looking for Tokens etc with intrinsic value. Maybe this one you like? After a crash like this, it's the best time to get in...
https://powerledger.io/
http://www.afr.com/business/energy/...r-rides-bitcoin-rollercoaster-20180206-h0v1wq

 
id_rather_be_racing said:
Halos, hit me up via pm. Good to see I'm not the only one in this space.
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I also think it's good to have some alternate perspectives here.  Please keep posting your thoughts.

I'm always willing to learn and change my mind if new information comes along.

 
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