Housing about to Blowup

What she describes here is a classic "bear trap"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/29/economic-recovery-not-real

Don't be fooled by the false economic recovery

We all want to believe a recovery is here, but indicators are that it's not. We're getting swindled again by banks and politicians

...Then, last month, three major banks, including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, halted all their sales of homes in foreclosure; this also reduced the supply of homes on the market. The reduction in housing supply, then, is largely artificial, designed by the banks and institutions that hold thousands of houses and thus have the most to gain from higher house prices.

The result is what looks like a housing recovery to the rest of us, but is, in fact, something of a trap. Fitch, the ratings firm, issued a warning that the alleged recovery in housing is moving too fast and could reverse.

....A recovery allows real estate agents and banks to tell Americans that they can't borrow money for the home they want, that they can't participate in the housing market, while wealth private investors scoop up as much as they can. A recovery allows lawmakers to pretend that their destructive policies of deficit cutting and austerity were productive, rather than destructive.

A mythical recovery, in short, gives cover to a lot of irresponsible people hoping that Americans won't look behind the curtain.

There is a momentary discomfort in realizing that the recovery is weak. When the absurd illusion of a "better economy" is gone, lawmakers and CEOs may be forced to stop believing in the myth of a good economy and actually start working to create the reality of it.
 
Articles like these scare the s$#* out of me. I should stop reading bear websites.  :-\
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-03/18-signs-massive-economic-problems-are-erupting-everywhere

"Unfortunately, things are not going to be so easy to fix this next time.

What happened back in 2008 was just a preview.

What is coming next is going to absolutely shock the world."



"fortunately, the young people are finding new ways to cope, rather than crying over spilled milk" - literally...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-xfho6rRlU
 
Those evil Wall streeters are at it again

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/behind-rise-house-prices-wall-232303318.html;_ylt=AvMFO3UJ1J_TKKZEkL4TfWOiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTN1c2dxMmxnBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIE1lZ2F0cm9uIDIEcGtnAzdjMTgxOWViLWIwY2QtMzkwZS1iN2Y4LWMzYmI0OThjZDk3ZQRwb3MDMQRzZWMDbWVnYXRyb24EdmVyAzMwOTc1ZDkzLWNkMjAtMTFlMi04ZmZmLTgyMWRhYTMxZGQ5OQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFkcW51ZGliBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3BtaA--;_ylv=3

Behind the Rise in House Prices, Wall Street Buyers

The last time the housing market was this hot in Phoenix and Las Vegas, the buyers pushing up prices were mostly small time. Nowadays, they are big time ? Wall Street big.

Large investment firms have spent billions of dollars over the last year buying homes in some of the nation?s most depressed markets. The influx has been so great, and the resulting price gains so big, that ordinary buyers are feeling squeezed out. Some are already wondering if prices will slump anew if the big money stops flowing.

...and those shady guys at Goldman Sachs

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100779340

Goldman: This US Treasury Sell-Off Is for Real

With yields on government bonds jumping in the past week, Goldman Sachs has warned that a widely predicted bond sell-off is finally happening, while a major U.S. asset manager has warned investors to move out of long-duration bonds to avoid heavy losses.


Pessimistic growth targets, a fear of the Federal Reserve curtailing asset-purchases, and uncertainty over Japan's "Abenomics" policies are the three key reasons that Goldman Sachs cited for the move higher in yields.

 
morekaos said:
Those evil Wall streeters are at it again

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/behind-rise-house-prices-wall-232303318.html;_ylt=AvMFO3UJ1J_TKKZEkL4TfWOiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTN1c2dxMmxnBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIE1lZ2F0cm9uIDIEcGtnAzdjMTgxOWViLWIwY2QtMzkwZS1iN2Y4LWMzYmI0OThjZDk3ZQRwb3MDMQRzZWMDbWVnYXRyb24EdmVyAzMwOTc1ZDkzLWNkMjAtMTFlMi04ZmZmLTgyMWRhYTMxZGQ5OQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFkcW51ZGliBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3BtaA--;_ylv=3

Behind the Rise in House Prices, Wall Street Buyers

The last time the housing market was this hot in Phoenix and Las Vegas, the buyers pushing up prices were mostly small time. Nowadays, they are big time ? Wall Street big.

Large investment firms have spent billions of dollars over the last year buying homes in some of the nation?s most depressed markets. The influx has been so great, and the resulting price gains so big, that ordinary buyers are feeling squeezed out. Some are already wondering if prices will slump anew if the big money stops flowing.

...and those shady guys at Goldman Sachs

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100779340

Goldman: This US Treasury Sell-Off Is for Real

With yields on government bonds jumping in the past week, Goldman Sachs has warned that a widely predicted bond sell-off is finally happening, while a major U.S. asset manager has warned investors to move out of long-duration bonds to avoid heavy losses.


Pessimistic growth targets, a fear of the Federal Reserve curtailing asset-purchases, and uncertainty over Japan's "Abenomics" policies are the three key reasons that Goldman Sachs cited for the move higher in yields.

You should know that you need to do the OPPOSITE of what Goldman recommends...they have a nasty habit of trading against their own calls.
 
Oh I know. I was just being a bit coy, but buried in their case is always a kernel of truth, and in the bigger picture they tend to be right.
 
Pertinent article given thread topic.  8)

Yes, ZH is doom and gloom... But what one reads is not necessarily what one believes.
 
Westsiiide! said:
Pertinent article given thread topic.  8)

Yes, ZH is doom and gloom... But what one reads is not necessarily what one believes.

"Whoever fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you." - Nietzsche

I struggle with this because I am uniquely in a position to hear all the arguments from all sides of the fence. In the end, I do my best to keep an open mind and seek balanced inputs. I think there is value to the Z.H. perspectives.
-IR2
 
I am new to the forums and actually new to Irvine.  My wife and I closed on a home in Garden Hill a couple of weeks ago.  I am not sure if housing will blow up, but I'll share our story as to why we bought when we did.

After six years living abroad, my wife and I decided to move back to the U.S.  We decided not to go back to the Midwest, so I began researching where we should live.  While it was exciting to be able to start over wherever we wanted, it was also a pretty daunting decision.  We thought pretty seriously about Seattle and Austin, but ultimately settled on Irvine.  The reason that we selected Southern California for the weather and amount of things to do, and Irvine because of the reputation of the public schools.  We also considered a few areas of San Diego and the Thousand Oaks area, but ultimately Irvine seemed like the best fit.

I started working with a local (OC) real estate agent back in September and I started searching myself using Redfin, Trulia and other sites.  We were looking for a home at least 3000 sq. feet with four bedrooms.  Our plan was probably to buy an existing home, but we were also open to buying a new home, so in October I asked my agent about new homes.  She went and put our names in at Lambert, Garden Hill and Laguna Altura. 

The family and I visited Southern California during the kids Christmas break to both search for a house and to try to get a feel for whether we would like it.  By this time, the housing market seemed different than it had only a few months before.  There seemed to be a lot fewer houses available for sale.  I also learned that some houses that Redfin and Trulia show as still available may already be sold or in escrow. 

In addition to viewing some existing homes, we visited Lambert, Garden Hill and Laguna Altura.  We liked both Lambert and Garden Hill.  It is actually harder for me to judge Laguna Altura, as the representative there was pretty dismissive and rude.  She was unable to answer some fairly basic questions and not particularly interested in finding out the answers.   

At Lambert, the representative (who was actually very nice) likened being chosen to buy one of their houses like winning the lottery.  I quipped "Except instead of getting a million dollars, we have to pay a million."

Our agent had the price sheet that she had picked up from Garden Hill in October, and the price for the plan 3's (4 br, 3084 sq. ft) had gone up about 55 or 60 k.  Like the other places, we were told that we were on the wait list and that they would contact us if our name came up.  It is a little frustrating, because you really don't know where you are on anyone's list.   

When I planned our trip, I booked myself to stay an extra week just in case we had found something.  As they left, I was pretty certain that we would not find a house on this trip.  In some ways this wasn't a bad thing as we weren't ready to move until the summer.  The downside is that we probably would have to rent a house or apartment when we returned.  The prices were already starting to creep up, so we had no idea what prices and inventory would be like in June or July.  As I was sitting waiting to meet my agent to take a look at some homes in Ranch Santa Margarita, she called and told me that Garden Hill had called and they had an opening on the very lot my wife had said she wanted.  It turns out that the buyer's financing fell through, so they offered it to us.

I signed a purchase contract in January at $999k (plus lot fee, upgrades and other expenses), a full $70k above the prices in October.  Prices have since went up another 100k on the plan 3's.  The base price now is around $1,179k, but that includes $70k in mandatory upgrades.  The prices on all the plans there have gone up, but I am more familiar with the plan 3's.

Will the trend continue to go up?  While I certainly want my home to retain and even increase its value, for us, it really isn't that important in the short term.  Our current plan is to live in our house until our youngest graduates high school (nine years from now). We liked the house and late May completion date worked out well for us.  We were buying a home and a lifestyle, not just making an investment. 

Sorry, I know my story is a little outside the scope of this thread. 




 
Thanks for the story Tieloop and welcome to TI.

Other than the schools, weather and things to do... any other reasons to settle in Irvine? Do you have friends and family here? You also don't mention if you work near or in Irvine.

The reason I ask is because many don't think those reasons are enough to choose to live in Irvine but people like you (and me) do.

P.S. Did you ever consider Johns Creek?
 
Welcome to T.I., Tieloop. Or, as I also like to say,

"Come for the real estate. Stay for the drama."?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Thanks for the story Tieloop and welcome to TI.

Other than the schools, weather and things to do... any other reasons to settle in Irvine? Do you have friends and family here? You also don't mention if you work near or in Irvine.

The reason I ask is because many don't think those reasons are enough to choose to live in Irvine but people like you (and me) do.

P.S. Did you ever consider Johns Creek?

LOL at JC. And yes thank you for the story Tieloop. I live in Portola Springs as well and really like the community so far. It's quiet and the neighbors are very polite. Lots of kids too.

Irvinehomeowner, I moved here because I got my job relocated to Irvine. I picked Irvine over the other areas because it was a shorter commute and we found a really good deal on a home. I like short commutes.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Thanks for the story Tieloop and welcome to TI.

Other than the schools, weather and things to do... any other reasons to settle in Irvine? Do you have friends and family here? You also don't mention if you work near or in Irvine.

The reason I ask is because many don't think those reasons are enough to choose to live in Irvine but people like you (and me) do.

P.S. Did you ever consider Johns Creek?

Thank you everyone for the warm welcome.

We don't have any friends in Irvine itself, but I have some friends in Orange County, LA and further inland.  Some friends here in Southeast Asia have lived in California in the past.

Irvine first probably came to my attention when I saw it on one of the lists of best cities to live in.  It's not that I take those things as gospel, but they offer at least a decent starting place.  I did a lot of research into factors such as economies, education, weather, quality of life, crime, etc.  In the Socal, I looked at date on:

- Rancho Santa Margarita
- Ranchos Palos Verdes/Palos Verdes Estates
- 1000 Oaks
- Newbury Park
- Westlake Village
- Oak Park
- Diamond Bar
- Manhattan Beach
- Poway
- Encinitas
- Carlsbad

I had a lot of data on all these places, and while I would love to say that I had an algorithm that spit out Irvine as the best, in some ways it was a leap of faith.  But the low crime, good public schools, great weather, diversity, and positive feedback from friends familiar with the area pushed us towards Irvine.  I thought that it would be a lot more fun for the kids to grow up in Southern California than Ohio. 

I was not familiar with Johns Creek, so I Googled it.  Are  you referring to the one in Georgia?  I am not interested in the Georgia summers.  I have enough high heat and humidity living in Southeast Asia. 
 
Tieloop said:
I was not familiar with Johns Creek, so I Googled it.  Are  you referring to the one in Georgia?  I am not interested in the Georgia summers.  I have enough high heat and humidity living in Southeast Asia. 
Yes... the one in Georgia.

I think you just made a baby panda cry... but I agree with you... weather is a major factor.
 
Tieloop,

Congratulations on your new home and welcome to TI!

I believe a plan 3 is ~$1M+ and MR/HOA. Given your budget, did you consider resale? What drew you to Garden Hill (very large detached homes on a motor court) versus other product types?
 
iacrenter said:
Tieloop,

Congratulations on your new home and welcome to TI!

I believe a plan 3 is ~$1M+ and MR/HOA. Given your budget, did you consider resale? What drew you to Garden Hill (very large detached homes on a motor court) versus other product types?

You are right on the price, MR & HOA. 

We did consider resale homes.  Part of the reason was that we didn't go that way was that the inventory at the time (even now to some extend) was so low and we weren't enamored with any of the homes that we looked at at the time  We also had no idea what would happen to prices in the next six months if we waited to buy until we arrived this summer and we really weren't excited about moving into an apartment or home rental and then moving again.  This is in part because of the effort of moving, but also for the kids.  Moving back to the U.S. is a big step for them, and we thought that moving to our "permanent" would help give a sense of stability. 

If we were already in Southern California (or even perhaps in the U.S.), these factors would not have been as strong.  We could have continued to look at resales and had a reasonable chance of finding one.  If we had found a resale when we were there that we liked, we would have probably pulled the trigger.

We didn't give the motor court aspect a lot of thought, but we like the idea of the detached home.  Our home back in Ohio is 4,200+ sq. ft (including the finished part of the basement) so we wanted something in the 3,000 sq ft range.  At the time we saw our options as GH, LA and LR. 

Our agent told us that the location of LA was not as convenient as GH and LR.  Additionally, they seemed like they really weren't interested in us giving them a million dollars, so we crossed them off the list.

We liked the layout of the plan 3 in GH a lot.  The large open great room is similar to what we have in Ohio, and we really liked it there.  We've lived in houses with the kitchen and dining areas separate from the family room and we didn't like them as much.  The size was right as were the number of bedrooms.  We liked that the 1st floor bedroom was in the back of the house.  We also looked at the plan 4, which was a little bigger and a little more expensive.  One of the big reasons that we (okay, my wife) liked the plan 3 better is that in the plan 4, the outdoor living area is on the other side of the house from the kitchen.  So if you want to dine outside, you have to walk across the length of the house to bring the food, dishes, etc. 

LR was also very nice, in fact, I liked it a little more than GH.  There were a few things that my wife didn't like as much about the layout of the plan 2 (I think) at LR and she liked GH a little more. Ultimately between LR and GH it came down to one calling us and one not.  When we received the call that a lot was available, we thought about waiting to see.  In the end, it is good that we didn't wait for LR because their waiting list is apparently pretty big, and we never heard back from them. 

I do like the tree lined streets in some of the areas of Irvine, and if we had found the right house, at the right time and price, we probably would have made an offer on it.  If the market had been more neutral (about 4 months supply if my month or so of lurking taught me), we might have felt more comfortable in waiting to pull the trigger. 
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Tieloop said:
I was not familiar with Johns Creek, so I Googled it.  Are  you referring to the one in Georgia?  I am not interested in the Georgia summers.  I have enough high heat and humidity living in Southeast Asia. 
Yes... the one in Georgia.

I think you just made a baby panda cry... but I agree with you... weather is a major factor.

I looked back to the link I found about John's Creek.  Now I get the panda joke.  :)
 
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