Gold prices- take a guess

[quote author="morekaos"]Be warned!!

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/06/pf/buying_gold.moneymag/index.htm

Coming down with gold fever

Gold has always been a favorite of doomsayers and conspiracy theorists. But last year it started to go more mainstream. Some of Wall Street's most successful investors are now into gold, including star hedge fund managers such as John Paulson and David Einhorn.

But before you join this movement, consider who these converts are. Paulson made money betting correctly that tens of thousands of mortgage loans would go bust in 2007 and 2008. As for Einhorn, he's best known as a short-seller -- someone who wagers that stocks are going to go down. In other words, it's really Wall Street's version of the same doomsday crowd that's caught the gold bug. It would be different if, say, Warren Buffett was buying up this stuff. He isn't.

So you'd do well to heed the warning of economist Nouriel Roubini, who was ahead of the pack in predicting the credit crisis. People who argue that there's economic justification for gold prices continuing their rise, he wrote recently, "are just talking nonsense."

[/quote]We would do well to heed the warning of Roubini? Instead of copying Paulson? How much money did Roubini make in the markets as a result of his prediction? How much money did Paulson make? Have you ever researched to see what Roubini's percentage right is? IIRC, Roubini has made an overwhelmingly larger number of incorrect calls than correct calls. But, maybe I just have a bad memory.
 
[quote author="graphrix"]My GLD puts went green today and my GLD short position went green as well in the Panda challenge game today. [/quote]
So, how did that work out for you?
 
[quote author="janet"]
[quote author="morekaos"]At the hight of the Internet bubble I remember being invited to numerous investment club parties. In 2005 I remember being invited to more than one Nouveau Riche party. And now this...

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/108445/gold-is-the-new-tupperware-and-youre-invited-to-the-party

Gold Is the New Tupperware, and You're Invited to the Party

...the end is near.[/quote]

Doesn't this mean that the dumb money is selling? Wouldn't the masses be buying if the end was near?[/quote]

I meant the end of the gold rush
 
[quote author="Panda "]I prefer to listen to Jim Rogers over Nouriel Roubini. Morekaos, what is your best guess where the USD and Gold prices will end up in very near term? Are you still shorting gold? I did not take the bait when gold got down to $1080, as i am hoping to get in a lower price. Near term, I'm waiting for USD to rise to between 80 - 82, and I am going all in on the yellow metal when this happens. I will be very suprised to see gold under a $1000 once again.

[/quote]

Still short gold long dollar.
 
[quote author="janet"]
[quote author="morekaos"]Be warned!!

http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/06/pf/buying_gold.moneymag/index.htm

Coming down with gold fever

Gold has always been a favorite of doomsayers and conspiracy theorists. But last year it started to go more mainstream. Some of Wall Street's most successful investors are now into gold, including star hedge fund managers such as John Paulson and David Einhorn.

But before you join this movement, consider who these converts are. Paulson made money betting correctly that tens of thousands of mortgage loans would go bust in 2007 and 2008. As for Einhorn, he's best known as a short-seller -- someone who wagers that stocks are going to go down. In other words, it's really Wall Street's version of the same doomsday crowd that's caught the gold bug. It would be different if, say, Warren Buffett was buying up this stuff. He isn't.

So you'd do well to heed the warning of economist Nouriel Roubini, who was ahead of the pack in predicting the credit crisis. People who argue that there's economic justification for gold prices continuing their rise, he wrote recently, "are just talking nonsense."

[/quote]We would do well to heed the warning of Roubini? Instead of copying Paulson? How much money did Roubini make in the markets as a result of his prediction? How much money did Paulson make? Have you ever researched to see what Roubini's percentage right is? IIRC, Roubini has made an overwhelmingly larger number of incorrect calls than correct calls. But, maybe I just have a bad memory.[/quote]

I think Jim Roger's networth is in the upwards of $150 million and maybe Roubini has about $500,000 in the bank. I think i am going to listen to Jim Rogers.
 
[quote author="morekaos"]
[quote author="Panda "]I prefer to listen to Jim Rogers over Nouriel Roubini. Morekaos, what is your best guess where the USD and Gold prices will end up in very near term? Are you still shorting gold? I did not take the bait when gold got down to $1080, as i am hoping to get in a lower price. Near term, I'm waiting for USD to rise to between 80 - 82, and I am going all in on the yellow metal when this happens. I will be very suprised to see gold under a $1000 once again.

[/quote]

Still short gold long dollar.[/quote]

That's what i want to hear. I knew a sizable correction was coming when gold reached above $1200, going straight up for the past ten days. You've had your balls to the wall, and now it has paid off..
 
[quote author="morekaos"]
[quote author="janet"]

Doesn't this mean that the dumb money is selling? Wouldn't the masses be buying if the end was near?[/quote]

I meant the end of the gold rush[/quote]
So did I.

And you did not answer my question. Wouldn't the behavior you cite in the article signify that the dumb money was selling? And wouldn't the masses be buying if the end of the gold rush was near?
 
[quote author="Panda "]
[quote author="morekaos"]

Still short gold long dollar.[/quote]

That's what i want to hear. I knew a sizable correction was coming when gold reached above $1200, going straight up for the past ten days. You've had your balls to the wall, and now it has paid off..[/quote]
Wouldn't that all depend upon what price he/she shorted at? What price did you short at?
 
[quote author="morekaos"]Shorted anywhere from 1100-1200[/quote]
The following is from the IHB -
morekaos
Posted: 18 September 2009 07:12 AM
"I will state it here. I am officailly long the dollar and shorting gold."




The all time high for gold was 1025 when you stated that you went short, so don't you mean that you shorted from 1000-1200?
 
Janet,
I've been reading MoreKaos' trade posts since the last $1000 gold peak in March '08 and though his timing isn't 100% perfect he comes very close. I think around Sept '08, he posted that was shorting around $880 and gold took a dive all the way down to low $700s.

I've been waiting patiently for the perfect setup when DOW makes a sharp decline, which is way over due. The boys on Wall Street are thinking that can squeeze more juice and bonuses for itself as long as it can, but now it is time to pay the piper.

Janet, where do you think Gold will bottom and the dollar will top at in the near term?
 
[quote author="Panda "]Janet,
I've been reading MoreKaos' trade posts since the last $1000 gold peak in March '08 and though his timing isn't 100% perfect he comes very close. I think around Sept '08, he posted that was shorting around $880 and gold took a dive all the way down to low $700s.

I've been waiting patiently for the perfect setup when DOW makes a sharp decline, which is way over due. The boys on Wall Street are thinking that can squeeze more juice and bonuses for itself as long as it can, but now it is time to pay the piper.

Janet, where do you think Gold will bottom and the dollar will top at in the near term? [/quote]

Why are you asking me? I know nothing about gold except it is on my ring finger and some other jewelery that I own. And I know less about investing. I had to ask my husband what GLD puts were.

I am unfamiliar with Mr. Morekaos' timing. All I know is what I read, which is that he said that he shorted gold when gold was about 1000 and he has continued to say that it is time to short gold. Gold is about 1100 now. My husband explained dollar cost averaging to me and also explained how that even with dollar cost averaging, Mr. Morekaos is probably losing money on his gold short.
 
I would also like to understand why Mr. Morekaos used an article about people selling gold at gold parties as a reason to short gold. When I asked my husband, he said Mr. Morekaos was reading sentiment, but he also showed me that reading sentiment from the article that Mr. Morekaos cited would say the most people were selling gold, not buying it. Reading sentiment means you do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.
 
[quote author="janet"]I would also like to understand why Mr. Morekaos used an article about people selling gold at gold parties as a reason to short gold. When I asked my husband, he said Mr. Morekaos was reading sentiment, but he also showed me that reading sentiment from the article that Mr. Morekaos cited would say the most people were selling gold, not buying it. Reading sentiment means you do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.[/quote]

Joe Public is selling his useless gold to profit from gold. Much like when the best flipping discussions where between the Starbucks Barrista discussing his Santa Barbara flip with the Chai drinking ex-grocery clerk who is flipping a place in Laguna Beach.
 
My man BondTrader is finally back from China! So what's your latest economic forecast on gold, the dollar, and the foreign markets?
 
I have been a trader but yes, I do have some short positions under water at the moment. The gives and takes of trading. I am confident that even positions put on in the 1000 zone will be profitable. Look closely at my short call on oil in 2008. It began around $110 and I shorted clear up to $145. Covered at around $45. Like horse shoes, hand grenades and slow dancing...close is good enough. I have NEVER called anything at its exact bottom or top. I'm just paid to make money.
 
[quote author="morekaos"]I have been a trader but yes, I do have some short positions under water at the moment. The gives and takes of trading. I am confident that even positions put on in the 1000 zone will be profitable. Look closely at my short call on oil in 2008. It began around $110 and I shorted clear up to $145. Covered at around $45. Like horse shoes, hand grenades and slow dancing...close is good enough. I have NEVER called anything at its exact bottom or top. I'm just paid to make money.[/quote]

So, you did short gold in the $1000 zone, and not just the $1100 to $1200 range?
 
Some at each level all the way up. Some covered in the last fall but overall I am surely still short.
 
[quote author="morekaos"] Some covered in the last fall [/quote]

Yes, of course you did. Even if you only kept on posting you were short and never mentioned covering. Brilliant, you sold short on the way up and covered on the moves down. No wonder people pay you to make money. <!-- s;) -->;)<!-- s;) -->
 
[quote author="janet"]
[quote author="morekaos"] Some covered in the last fall [/quote]

Yes, of course you did. Even if you only kept on posting you were short and never mentioned covering. Brilliant, you sold short on the way up and covered on the moves down. No wonder people pay you to make money. <!-- s;) -->;)<!-- s;) -->[/quote]

As I said some did but overall I still maintain a large short position on gold. Whether it is profitable today is not relevant, the day I cover the whole position is what matters
 
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