usctrojancpa
Well-known member
I never counted on getting the bailout check anyhow so whatever, I just hope that my mom and dad get it.
coronavirus
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I am pretty sure for the rest of the year, appetite for buying a home will diminish dramatically given the current data?s points.
If anyone believes any of the #'s, coming from almost any country, you are crazy. All that said, I am optimistic the actions being taken will curb this a bit, the scarier part is all of the models that say all this is doing is deferring the inevitable and mainly just ensuring hospitals aren't at overflow status while buying time for a vaccine/improved treatments.
Italy is appearing to be a significant outlier in mortality rates and part of that might be due with the fact that you still have more smokers and have a much older population (Italy being 2nd oldest country in the world). On top of that you have a ton of multi-generational living, meaning higher susceptibility that an individual who no symptoms who has the virus gives his dad/grandpa a hug/kiss and passes virus to a very high-risk individual.
The whole thing is crazy though. Part of me says, if we are going to do this whole quarantine, we might as well literally just shut down the country for a month (works, everything...only exception is schools and what matters). Close markets, close everything. Ensure everyone has groceries and medicine and essentially that is the bail-out (all people are going to live in a socialist world for 1 month...without being able to live out of there house).
All other forms of payment are just waived. Mortgage, credit cards, paychecks...literally everything. Everything just closes...essentially we all just pretend that month NEVER happened. Markets closed. Everything. Once this is done...turn everything back to normal and go back. I honestly don't know how that could cost more than all of the various bailouts and stimulus being done (no idea how to execute on it though).
I also assume we'll see some swift regulations regarding stock buybacks. Airline industry is getting bailed out...but airlines used almost all of their excess capital for buybacks. Just imagine if they had to run like banks and/other financial institutions which actually need to keep capital to ensure they can survive these type of events. On pure principal, airline bailout feels wrong for those reasons....that said, it is critical infrastructure for our country and if you don't bail them out, you just allow some new person to buy them out of BK for pennies on the dollar and get rich that way. Not sure which is better (but while that entire process goes on...that is a lot of employees who are impacted).
Unemployment numbers are going to be absolutely unreal and historic in how quickly they will ramp. I think I saw where in 1 day, Pennsylvania had more unemployment applications yesterday than the entire US had in a week. I wouldn't be shocked if we see record unemployment (don't remember what it was during the depression...but it will be higher than the great recession (i.e., 08/09).
The bright side is once we get past this, the recovery will be pretty fast. I still fundamentally think everything will be back within 18-24 months. Which means, great buying times / opportunities to DCA on the various dips. No idea when the bottom is and my on record guess is we get down somewhere in the 40-50% range (from the beginning of the year). I'm presuming we'll have more bad news than good news for at least 1-2 more weeks.
Plus Italians over in Italy were heavy smokers from what I remember seeing when I was there years ago which doesn't help with this virus.
At this point , I am pretty sure Morelia?s will go out and hi five everyone and disregard the warning.
Everyone steer clear of Kaos when you meet him.
That?s a legit concern. Say you rent from The Irvine Co. I assume they would run credit check and your bank accounts have to be submitted,no?
They run a credit check, and require pay stub along with enough money to cover for a month or two of rent.
The thing is, both rent and property value has been increasing faster than income growth for the last decade. People that may have been decently well off living in Irvine a couple years ago may not be in a similar position now.
I would ping the leasing office, ask for the manager and not the paper pusher, if you really in a spot where your job is in jeopardy because of this crisis. Deep picket Irvine Co, leasing always have a lost bucket, in this case is an exceptionally circumstance, if you are really on a hardship and can prove it. Big CO. can take the lost and they will report it on their book.
I would raise this sooner than later to your lease office.
Nah, i'm lucky enough to have a job that's relatively secure, assuming the situation doesn't get worse (knock on wood). but a few of my friends aren't so lucky. thanks for caring though.
I'm a bit worried on how they will survive* through this, but yeah.. i'll pin the message to them.
Sometimes all it takes is to reach out and let them know that it might seem dire, but that they got a friend (you) that?s all that they need to feel better.
You already paid so it does not matter, but for those that could not meet it , you can reach out to the assessor office and ask for extension and free of interest. I had a friend that done it.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Panda said:
I am pretty sure for the rest of the year, appetite for buying a home will diminish dramatically given the current data?s points.
Just like there is no way there were only the # of cases China claims to exist. US population is much bigger than Italy so obviously the ultimate numbers will be largely than Italy. Italy also has one of the oldest populations in the world and in general has a much larger portion of its population leaving in dense large urban cities (vs. US).Panda said:
If anyone believes any of the #'s, coming from almost any country, you are crazy. All that said, I am optimistic the actions being taken will curb this a bit, the scarier part is all of the models that say all this is doing is deferring the inevitable and mainly just ensuring hospitals aren't at overflow status while buying time for a vaccine/improved treatments.
6% of the US population is not going to pass away from this. 1st off, that is using a very high mortality rate and essentially assuming no action to "flatten" the curve. And if that happens...good luck, it isn't just going to be 6% of the US. This bug doesn't discriminate. Worse case scenarios have mortality rates well below that and more likely closer to 1% (and that is 1% of people who get it...which means if only half of country is infected, you are talking .5%). The Spanish Flu, which is widely modeled as one of the last true large pandemics, would drive an additional 1.5 deaths per 1000 individuals, which would project to an additional 500,000 deaths within the US.Panda said:
Italy is appearing to be a significant outlier in mortality rates and part of that might be due with the fact that you still have more smokers and have a much older population (Italy being 2nd oldest country in the world). On top of that you have a ton of multi-generational living, meaning higher susceptibility that an individual who no symptoms who has the virus gives his dad/grandpa a hug/kiss and passes virus to a very high-risk individual.
The whole thing is crazy though. Part of me says, if we are going to do this whole quarantine, we might as well literally just shut down the country for a month (works, everything...only exception is schools and what matters). Close markets, close everything. Ensure everyone has groceries and medicine and essentially that is the bail-out (all people are going to live in a socialist world for 1 month...without being able to live out of there house).
All other forms of payment are just waived. Mortgage, credit cards, paychecks...literally everything. Everything just closes...essentially we all just pretend that month NEVER happened. Markets closed. Everything. Once this is done...turn everything back to normal and go back. I honestly don't know how that could cost more than all of the various bailouts and stimulus being done (no idea how to execute on it though).
All debt, landlord payments, etc, is all going to get pushed back a month. Everything kicked down the road. Would be shocked if it doesn't happen. Don't know any other way to not leave small businesses, who don't have capital, totally screwed.qwerty said:
I also assume we'll see some swift regulations regarding stock buybacks. Airline industry is getting bailed out...but airlines used almost all of their excess capital for buybacks. Just imagine if they had to run like banks and/other financial institutions which actually need to keep capital to ensure they can survive these type of events. On pure principal, airline bailout feels wrong for those reasons....that said, it is critical infrastructure for our country and if you don't bail them out, you just allow some new person to buy them out of BK for pennies on the dollar and get rich that way. Not sure which is better (but while that entire process goes on...that is a lot of employees who are impacted).
Unemployment numbers are going to be absolutely unreal and historic in how quickly they will ramp. I think I saw where in 1 day, Pennsylvania had more unemployment applications yesterday than the entire US had in a week. I wouldn't be shocked if we see record unemployment (don't remember what it was during the depression...but it will be higher than the great recession (i.e., 08/09).
The bright side is once we get past this, the recovery will be pretty fast. I still fundamentally think everything will be back within 18-24 months. Which means, great buying times / opportunities to DCA on the various dips. No idea when the bottom is and my on record guess is we get down somewhere in the 40-50% range (from the beginning of the year). I'm presuming we'll have more bad news than good news for at least 1-2 more weeks.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Bullsback said:
Plus Italians over in Italy were heavy smokers from what I remember seeing when I was there years ago which doesn't help with this virus.
morekaos
Well-known member
He is such an idiot!!
California governor Gavin Newsom issues statewide 'Stay At Home' order for 40 MILLION people - after warning 26 million could be infected with coronavirus in the next eight weeks
The governor said the order was essential in light of modeling by experts that showed roughly 56 per cent of the state's residents, or 25 million people, would contract the respiratory illness in the next eight weeks.
[url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8133181/California-governor-Gavin-Newsom-says-26-million-people-infected-coronavirus.html[/url]
California governor Gavin Newsom issues statewide 'Stay At Home' order for 40 MILLION people - after warning 26 million could be infected with coronavirus in the next eight weeks
The governor said the order was essential in light of modeling by experts that showed roughly 56 per cent of the state's residents, or 25 million people, would contract the respiratory illness in the next eight weeks.
[url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8133181/California-governor-Gavin-Newsom-says-26-million-people-infected-coronavirus.html[/url]
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
morekaos said:
At this point , I am pretty sure Morelia?s will go out and hi five everyone and disregard the warning.
Everyone steer clear of Kaos when you meet him.
here's another tricky thing though. Rent.
Everywhere you look, there are programs being discussed for the mortgage and property tax being suspended, stopped, etc. , but not rent.
SO what's going happen to all the tenants?
Even if you stop evictions for a couple of months, a good chunk of people renting are living month to month.
They are in no way, shape or form to make up for those three, four months of missed rent just because the quarantine is suddenly lifted.
Assuming they even still have their job.
What now?
Everywhere you look, there are programs being discussed for the mortgage and property tax being suspended, stopped, etc. , but not rent.
SO what's going happen to all the tenants?
Even if you stop evictions for a couple of months, a good chunk of people renting are living month to month.
They are in no way, shape or form to make up for those three, four months of missed rent just because the quarantine is suddenly lifted.
Assuming they even still have their job.
What now?
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Innosint said:
That?s a legit concern. Say you rent from The Irvine Co. I assume they would run credit check and your bank accounts have to be submitted,no?
Compressed-Village said:
They run a credit check, and require pay stub along with enough money to cover for a month or two of rent.
The thing is, both rent and property value has been increasing faster than income growth for the last decade. People that may have been decently well off living in Irvine a couple years ago may not be in a similar position now.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Innosint said:
I would ping the leasing office, ask for the manager and not the paper pusher, if you really in a spot where your job is in jeopardy because of this crisis. Deep picket Irvine Co, leasing always have a lost bucket, in this case is an exceptionally circumstance, if you are really on a hardship and can prove it. Big CO. can take the lost and they will report it on their book.
I would raise this sooner than later to your lease office.
Compressed-Village said:
Nah, i'm lucky enough to have a job that's relatively secure, assuming the situation doesn't get worse (knock on wood). but a few of my friends aren't so lucky. thanks for caring though.
I'm a bit worried on how they will survive* through this, but yeah.. i'll pin the message to them.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Innosint said:
Sometimes all it takes is to reach out and let them know that it might seem dire, but that they got a friend (you) that?s all that they need to feel better.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
qwerty said:
You already paid so it does not matter, but for those that could not meet it , you can reach out to the assessor office and ask for extension and free of interest. I had a friend that done it.