Coronavirus Math

Wait I thought we were having 26,500,000 infections with an assumed death rate of 300,000? How can you give up the ventilators we undoubtedly will need just as soon as our hospitals become overwhelmed and country doctors will decide who lives and who dies because of the massive shortage of ventilators?  Oh the humanity!! I bet Trump made him send them... it?s the only explanation.

California sends 500 ventilators back to national stockpile

OAKLAND ? California is loaning 500 ventilators to states like New York where the coronavirus is exacting a deeper toll, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday.

The act of generosity completes a bi-coastal aid package after both Washington and Oregon lent medical supplies to New York, which is battling the nation's worst outbreak. Ventilators from California will flow into the Strategic National Stockpile. Oregon announced Saturday it was sending 140 ventilators to New York, while Washington said Sunday it was returning more than 400 of the machines.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/06/california-sends-500-ventilators-back-to-national-stockpile-1272393
https://youtu.be/1YDurhx8QyA

https://youtu.be/1YDurhx8QyA
 
Duration fatigue, morekaos is tired of waiting for big number to surge. How about go and volunteer at one of the hospital in NY, where doctors and nurses fallen ills caring for the sicken and deceased. You will look at life differently, dude. Or are you going to a bar or your favorite restaurant instead?

Yeah, help make your MAGA great again.
 
I still go to the office each day, two of my associates tested positive and never knew they had it. I have a sister and niece who are doctors. True this is getting boring but not a lot has changed to my days.  Others are getting restless though.
 
morekaos said:
...also, thanks for the loan...we may not need it though..

1,000-bed USNS Mercy in Port of Los Angeles admits total of 15 patients so far

SAN PEDRO, Calif. (KABC) -- The U.S. Navy hospital ship Mercy has treated a total of 15 patients since it arrived at the Port of Los Angeles last Friday, according to the ship's commanding officer.

The 1,000-bed hospital ship is treating patients with non-COVID-19 ailments in an effort to relieve the stress of L.A. area hospitals that are dealing with the rising number of novel coronavirus cases.

Mercy's commanding officer Capt. John Rotruck said Thursday in a call with reporters that there are currently 10 patients on the ship and five have been discharged.

Rotruck said patients are transferred after being referred to by the hospitals through a county medical alert center, which the Mercy has been added to.

https://abc7.com/coronavirus-navy-ship-los-angeles-nay-covid19-usns-mercy-us-southern-california/6073320/
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Funny how its sister ship in NYC is as under utilized, they are lacking hospital beds there. Both ships refuse COVID-19 patient and a long list of other conditions, they also don't accept any direct drop off from the emergency services. Patients have to be triaged in another hospital first, all in all it makes them useless and just a PR stunt.

Edit for reference:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html
 
morekaos said:
Wait I thought we were having 26,500,000 infections with an assumed death rate of 300,000? How can you give up the ventilators we undoubtedly will need just as soon as our hospitals become overwhelmed and country doctors will decide who lives and who dies because of the massive shortage of ventilators?  Oh the humanity!! I bet Trump made him send them... it?s the only explanation.
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There's a good reason to do this. I wish people on both sides aren't so obsessed with Trump. Yes, he plays a big role but not everything is about Trump.

I'd argue this is a time for national unity. Unused ventilators makes no sense. Even if you are just about self interest, there is a good value gained by helping NY. California, like most of the country, is watching and learning from NY. We're getting extremely valuable info by looking at all the different protocols and interventions they put in place to combat this, what works what doesn't work etc. Even specifically on how to ration ventilators, we will get valuable info.

Currently some states use a lottery system to decide the rationing of the ventilators. New York State creates a committee that essentially takes the power of making that decision unilaterally away from the doctor. The physician makes clinical recommendations based on their patient and tells the committee whether they?re getting better or worse. The committee decides ultimately whether the patient gets a ventilator.

If the prospects of not having a single person responsible for deciding your life/death scares you, be glad California isn't the under the gun like NY is. Because we sheltered in place early, we now have the luxury of learning from NY's success and failure.

Lastly, the number of reported COVID-19 cases is not a very useful indicator of anything unless we also know the context of how tests are being conducted, which we really do not.


 
They are considering using Cali's Mercy for Covid too.

Kenkoko said:
Lastly, the number of reported COVID-19 cases is not a very useful indicator of anything unless we also know the context of how tests are being conducted, which we really do not.
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That was pretty much the premise of why I started this thread.

We should look at deaths (which are more certain) and hospitilizations/ICU numbers to measure impact on medical resources.

I'm concerned that "positive" news coming out may make people unconsciously drop their guard... I still think we have yet to see the worst but am hopeful it will not be as bad as the math of others have predicted.
 
I too have been a big advocate of the Death Count...however, these numbers may also be tainted...

Are COVID-19 Deaths Being Overreported?
Playing loose with the number of fatalities or giving local officials the greenlight to inflate those figures is inimical to the public?s need to get a firm grasp on the danger of the disease

But there is little information available as to what qualifies as a coronavirus fatality for official counts. And there is good reason to approach such tallies with skepticism since reporting from states like New York is suspiciously vague.

If Americans are to believe that COVID-19 poses a mortal risk to the general population and therefore requires the most intrusive measures ever invoked to stop the spread of the deadly virus, then government officials must clarify the classification. Health officials have confirmed that older people and those with underlying medical issues such as heart disease or diabetes are most at-risk; the concern, however, is that fatalities in such cases are always attributed to coronavirus as the main cause of death instead of just noting it as a contributing factor.

https://www.amgreatness.com/2020/04/06/are-covid-19-deaths-being-overreported/
 
@morekaos:

I've thought about that too.

But, at what point do you determine Covid as a contributing factor or the main cause? There is no way to know that a person with underlying conditions would have been fine if not for Covid, and vice versa.

All numbers can be tainted (which is why I said "more" certain, not *absolutely*) but it does give us an idea of the seriousness of this pandemic.

I mean, all the flu death numbers you've posted can also be called into question on whether the flu was the main cause of death too right?
 
morekaos said:
the concern, however, is that fatalities in such cases are always attributed to coronavirus as the main cause of death instead of just noting it as a contributing factor.
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I'm genuinely puzzled by this, I understand the point of view in this article (CV-19 may only be a contributing factor) but I also wonder about the flip side: should CV-19 be considered the cause of death if it is the latest problem to pile on and it leads to the person death?

I guess there is no straight answer and it's somewhere in the middle, we will probably know the real numbers in research papers months/years from now.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Kenkoko said:
Lastly, the number of reported COVID-19 cases is not a very useful indicator of anything unless we also know the context of how tests are being conducted, which we really do not.
Click to expand...

That was pretty much the premise of why I started this thread.

We should look at deaths (which are more certain) and hospitilizations/ICU numbers to measure impact on medical resources.

I'm concerned that "positive" news coming out may make people unconsciously drop their guard... I still think we have yet to see the worst but am hopeful it will not be as bad as the math of others have predicted.
Click to expand...

Yes we definitely should.

This is in part why some other countries had better success than others. They have better collection of data, better use of data, and better policy implementation because of a more data driven approach.

We have so much incomplete reporting on current hospitalizations/ICU admissions and cumulative hospitalizations/ICU admissions.

Here's the sad truth. It is impossible to report anything resembling the real statistics for hospitalizations, ICU admissions, or ventilator usage across the United States because our healthcare system is an epic failure.

I hope this pandemic wake enough people up to the fact that we have an antiquated inefficient/wasteful healthcare system. People should demand change.

All these "positive" news are based on heavily caveated numbers. We just heard from our affiliates in NY this morning and things on the ground has gotten worse since last week.

But hey who cares because we all need more positive news right?
 
marmott said:
morekaos said:
Fixed that...

Trump allows coronavirus patients on Navy ship Comfort in New York after Cuomo asks
[url]https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/06/cuomo-will-ask-trump-to-allow-coronavirus-patients-on-comfort.html[/url]
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Yes just saw that this morning, it decreases the number of beds on the Comfort from 1,000 to 500 too.
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Reduced the amount to isolate and control in case of spread.  Now a red zone and green zone onboard...

Now, patients suffering most acutely from Covid-19, along with others in need of urgent care, are being transferred to the ship, while those less severely affected will remain at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center, another spillover site operated by the Department of Defense in Manhattan. All patients must give consent before being transferred to the Defense Department run facilities.

After the reconfiguration to accept Covid patients, the ship will have 500 beds, plus an additional 100 intensive care unit beds equipped with ventilators, Vice Adm. Andrew Lewis, the commander of U.S. Second Fleet, said at a briefing with reporters on Tuesday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/nyregion/usns-comfort-crew-coronavirus.html
 
morekaos said:
I too have been a big advocate of the Death Count...however, these numbers may also be tainted...
Click to expand...

The official NYC COVID death count is certainly an undercount.

Normally in NYC 20-25 people die at home each day.

We are now at 200-215. Every day.

For sure nearly all the increase is people w/ COVID. But not all are being counted that way.

Only people who die at home who are known to have a *positive coronavirus test* have the disease listed as the official cause on their death certificate.

There are many others going uncounted.

 
Kenkoko said:
morekaos said:
I too have been a big advocate of the Death Count...however, these numbers may also be tainted...
Click to expand...

The official NYC COVID death count is certainly an undercount.

Normally in NYC 20-25 people die at home each day.

We are now at 200-215. Every day.

For sure nearly all the increase is people w/ COVID. But not all are being counted that way.

Only people who die at home who are known to have a *positive coronavirus test* have the disease listed as the official cause on their death certificate.

There are many others going uncounted.
Click to expand...

So do you think the NY governor and NYC major are trying to paint a more positive picture that infection and deaths are flattening out?
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
So do you think the NY governor and NYC major are trying to paint a more positive picture that infection and deaths are flattening out?
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The more accurate and more responsible thing to say would have been "we are seeing a possible sign of flattening"

The main validation for their positive announcements is the # admitted to ER w/ symptoms consistent w/ Covid. It is one measure epidemiologists watch like a hawk, but it's also a highly flawed stat. Even among the best projections we've seen, the data is confusing & the models don't agree.

We've doubled the daily death count since a week ago. We just hit almost 2000 daily death yesterday. But, the death count will not be the first stat to flatten out because it's somewhat lagging.

Most healthcare workers would prefer politicians to err on the side of caution, especially those on the front lines. Majority of people just read news headlines and when they see a "positive" news headline they let their guard down and behave less optimally. This contributes to the regressions about a week ago when several major news outlets irresponsibly reported "things improving in NY".

 
The death count has indeed been slowing slightly the past few days.  Yes, deaths are increasing, but the rate is decelerating.  At a national level, the shelter in place measures do seem to be working.  It could just be a momentary fluke; time will tell with certainty.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Kenkoko said:
morekaos said:
I too have been a big advocate of the Death Count...however, these numbers may also be tainted...
Click to expand...

The official NYC COVID death count is certainly an undercount.

Normally in NYC 20-25 people die at home each day.

We are now at 200-215. Every day.

For sure nearly all the increase is people w/ COVID. But not all are being counted that way.

Only people who die at home who are known to have a *positive coronavirus test* have the disease listed as the official cause on their death certificate.

There are many others going uncounted.
Click to expand...

So do you think the NY governor and NYC major are trying to paint a more positive picture that infection and deaths are flattening out?
Click to expand...

Highest covid death day in NY is flattening? (as of April 7) Who knows it know it may go higher?
The Navy hospital ship of the coast of NYC will now treat covid patients. Also, US military is on the ground to help out in NYC.
 
It looks positive however there are so many caveats to the testing.  I also note the experts (Dr. Birx etc.)  keep saying the deaths are from people getting infected more than 2 to 3 weeks ago.  That puts the deaths on the far right of the charts below at infected on the far left.  I wonder at what point those dying show up for testing on the charts?



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6bc8648dfbce2b58bf3a7f699e8d213b855d2deb.png
 
second derivatives!

daedalus said:
The death count has indeed been slowing slightly the past few days.  Yes, deaths are increasing, but the rate is decelerating.  At a national level, the shelter in place measures do seem to be working.  It could just be a momentary fluke; time will tell with certainty.
Click to expand...
 
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