Coronavirus Math

[irvinehomeowner]

An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

 

[Liar Loan]

An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

Today, both of those numbers went down significantly, so there is some question about how they are tallying them.

 

[mads]

Has anybody picked up any official estimates of the infected multiplier?  By that I mean, if we are reporting 500 positive tests in OC, what is the multiplier for likely cases walking around asymptomatic or not sick enough to march off to the hospital?  I.e. are there really 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000, 15000, 20000 or more?

Any guesstimates from people.  I heard N.J. is only testing most symptomatic.  I think NYC is only testing those at the hospital.  Not sure what CA is doing.

Seems the CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield estimated asymptomatic transmission could be as high as 25% https://abcnews.go.com/Health/asymptomatic-transmission-coronavirus/story?id=69901758.
California too, is recommending that people with mild symptoms should just self isolate instead of seeking testing.
Apparently, we have a backlog of over 50K tests that are pending. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/next-covid-19-testing-crisis/609193/

From the https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-01/where-coronavirus-is-in-orange-county-
Age breakdown of cases: (in OC)
0-17 ? 3
18-24 ? 65
25-34 ? 96
35-44 ? 100
45-64 ? 236
65+ ? 106

Age breakdown of deaths:
25-34 ? 2
35-44 ? 1
45-64 ? 1
65+ ? 6

 

[Kenkoko]

Locally, we are doing very well.

In OC, we've been bouncing around 6-8% of patients testing positive for Covid-19 for the last 2 weeks.

Statewide, we have about 27% patients testing positive for Covid-19.

If you buy into the idea of labeling counties (by ?low, medium, or high risk?) We are low. But many believe labeling is hopeless.

New York state has 38% of patients testing positive for Covid-19. Queens is breaking out with roughly 70% of zip codes reporting 58%-77% testing positive.

Nationally, we are doing poorly. We just broke 5k total death and set a new daily death over 1000. The current trajectory is exponential.

 

[iacrenter]

I'm generally not political on TI but this president needs to act more decisively. He needs to nationalize purchasing of PPE and ventilators and tests. States should not be battling each other for resources. There should be a national 14-30 days stay at home order, not state by state or county by county. We are behind the curve and everyday we fail to act the virus will take more lives than needed. Even if you don't care about lives lost, the fastest way to get our jobs back and economy going is to get to a small enough number of infected so we can contain/manage it. We are no where near that time. It is best if we can take our bitter medicine now as a country so we can move forward to the healing.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

Today, both of those numbers went down significantly, so there is some question about how they are tallying them.

Sure. 

Day to day tracking is going to be flawed.

But I?m glad they keep giving us more detail.

 

[nosuchreality]

An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

Today, both of those numbers went down significantly, so there is some question about how they are tallying them.

Sure. 

Day to day tracking is going to be flawed.

But I?m glad they keep giving us more detail.

Better than nothing.  We know it is actually higher, however looking.

What is the current actual number?  CDC reports 3603 dead as of yesterday 4PM EDT., most media reporting 5113.

I prefer the CDC site, but the differences are becoming large and it's not just a lag.

 

[Liar Loan]

An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

Today, both of those numbers went down significantly, so there is some question about how they are tallying them.

Sure. 

Day to day tracking is going to be flawed.

But I?m glad they keep giving us more detail.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad they are reporting it, but there are anomalies with the data they are publishing.  There's also no context for the numbers. For instance, how many unoccupied hospital beds and ICU beds are available?  Without that crucial piece of data, the numbers don't mean a lot other than for curve watching.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This site gives us a pretty good visualization of how we are doing in "flattening the curve":
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

 

[Liar Loan]

This site gives us a pretty good visualization of how we are doing in "flattening the curve":
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

That's a great site.  I hadn't seen it yet.

The US is on the same curve as Italy, but that's mostly driven by New York.  Other states are individually on a much better curve.  California is doing especially well considering our size.

 

[morekaos]

The markets may be starting to smell a dead rat in the numbers...

Coronavirus: The Wrong Numbers
Will the media ever admit the failure of doomsday projections?

urn on your TV, and cable news will show you a chyron with the cumulative total of known COVID-19 cases in the United States. That number increases daily, by a simple process of addition, but that?s not the number that matters most in terms of coping with the pandemic. What matters, from the perspective of avoiding a crisis that overwhelms our health-care system, is not how many people are infected with the coronavirus, but rather the number of patients hospitalized. As tests for the Chinese virus have become more widely available, a majority of people who test positive ? more than 80 percent in some states ? are never hospitalized. Earlier projections of a system-crashing crisis have so far been proven false, but the media refuse to acknowledge the failure of the doomsday prophets and their computer-generated pandemic models.

https://spectator.org/coronavirus-the-wrong-numbers/

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Regardless if the numbers are wrong... which I've wondered about... continuing the message of social distancing, staying home, hand washing and masks will continue to help not get to that point.

 

[aquabliss]

To get real numbers we need the antibody tests... when will those be available?  (sigh)

 

[irvinebullhousing]

We know that aside from practice social distancing suppress the virus transmission, what we don't know is for those that are hospitalized, what drugs have been use on them to treat the severely ills and what percentage have been recovered from those drugs. Several different type of drugs was initiated to use as trials on both healthy individuals and those at close to death.

Alot of unknown variable here. Yes, good news is the number is not sky high. The market may rallies on those lower number, the economic devastation number will come to light after the death tolls peaks end. That's when the market will grasp the severity of crisis as awhole. And behave accordingly to the economy outlook for the rest of the year and going into next year. Right now, its throw all that you got at the fire first, then figure out the spaghetti mess later, and when later comes, it will be something to watch out for.

 

[morekaos]

You wont be able to prove a negative. I will repeat what Hitchens said..whether true or not they will declare they were right...

I like Peter Hitchens analogy as to how the blame game will go down if the death rates don't skyrocket soon...

As things stand, the Johnson Government is like a doctor, confronted with a patient suffering from pneumonia. ?This is serious,? says the doctor. ?I have never seen anything like this. Unless I act radically, you will die terribly.?

He then proposes to treat the pneumonia by amputating the patient?s left leg, saying this method has been used successfully in China. The trusting patient agrees. The patient eventually recovers from pneumonia, as he would have done anyway. The doctor proclaims that his treatment, though undoubtedly painful and radical, was a great success. But the patient now has only one leg, and a very large hospital bill which he cannot afford to pay.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

 

[morekaos]

...also, thanks for the loan...we may not need it though..

1,000-bed USNS Mercy in Port of Los Angeles admits total of 15 patients so far

SAN PEDRO, Calif. (KABC) -- The U.S. Navy hospital ship Mercy has treated a total of 15 patients since it arrived at the Port of Los Angeles last Friday, according to the ship's commanding officer.

The 1,000-bed hospital ship is treating patients with non-COVID-19 ailments in an effort to relieve the stress of L.A. area hospitals that are dealing with the rising number of novel coronavirus cases.

Mercy's commanding officer Capt. John Rotruck said Thursday in a call with reporters that there are currently 10 patients on the ship and five have been discharged.

Rotruck said patients are transferred after being referred to by the hospitals through a county medical alert center, which the Mercy has been added to.

https://abc7.com/coronavirus-navy-ship-los-angeles-nay-covid19-usns-mercy-us-southern-california/6073320/

 

[Kenkoko]

Since we're doing math, I think it's important to point out the critical math component many often missed. The real aftermath.

I see many people like morekaos making the argument as if the 80% never hospitalized population carry 0 cost to society. That's a fallacy.

They go on with their lives and infect more people. Some of those will require hospitalization. Some hospitalized patients will face problems even after recovery. It's called 'Post intensive-care syndrome'. COVID-19 patients are no different. Also, studies have shown that COVID-19 infection could lead to heart injury.

Even at small overall percentage, it will be tremendous economic and human cost to reckon with when we're dealing with millions of infected in the aftermath.

The current projection we're shown is that private insurance premium will shoot up 20%-40% next year. That's just based on the current situation. It could get worse than that.

 

[morekaos]

...true, until a vaccine is found or natural immunity builds up in the population, or both.  either way life goes on, as it has with all pandemics and disease.

 

[nosuchreality]

The markets may be starting to smell a dead rat in the numbers...

Coronavirus: The Wrong Numbers
Will the media ever admit the failure of doomsday projections?

urn on your TV, and cable news will show you a chyron with the cumulative total of known COVID-19 cases in the United States. That number increases daily, by a simple process of addition, but that?s not the number that matters most in terms of coping with the pandemic. What matters, from the perspective of avoiding a crisis that overwhelms our health-care system, is not how many people are infected with the coronavirus, but rather the number of patients hospitalized. As tests for the Chinese virus have become more widely available, a majority of people who test positive ? more than 80 percent in some states ? are never hospitalized. Earlier projections of a system-crashing crisis have so far been proven false, but the media refuse to acknowledge the failure of the doomsday prophets and their computer-generated pandemic models.

https://spectator.org/coronavirus-the-wrong-numbers/

Minor nit, NYC hospitals are doing how well?

 

[Maserson]

Karen Kolb Sehlke felt the media was making people "panic like sheep."  Look her up.