Central Park West thoughts?

IndieDev said:
It's going to get ugly once they realize that urban hipsters who make $80,000 and have $100,000 saved up in the bank don't choose to live in Irvine.
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How long until you think the prices get "ugly"? Cuz that is when I would like to buy here.
 
Regular folks like the ones living in the surrounding condos and apartments?
IndieDev said:
Then who is CPW for?
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Regular folks like the ones living in the surrounding condos and apartments?
 
Exactly... It is attractive to a lot more people than you would expect.  However prices are still 10-20% too high right now.

The cheapest units should go for about $300k if they insist on HOAs about $500 total.  Right now they are in the mid 300s.

They have 2 options... cut the HOAs in half or drop the prices on average of 15%.

Until then they will have a hard time selling these.
 
cvballa said:
IndieDev said:
It's going to get ugly once they realize that urban hipsters who make $80,000 and have $100,000 saved up in the bank don't choose to live in Irvine.
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How long until you think the prices get "ugly"? Cuz that is when I would like to buy here.
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They are already pretty ugly because the investors are going to get raked based on the current pricing. If you wait a bit more, you'll get your 15% and more. Either that, or the investors will turn the entire complex into rentals to mitigate their losses.
 
IndieDev said:
Then why aren't they buying them?
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The same reason they aren't buying them in the rest of the nation?  Even the TIC "new home collection" has slowed down.  Have you been living under a rock the past few years? 
 
I checked out CPW a few months back because I was also intrigued with the "urban living" they were pushing:

1) Who are we kidding.  This is OC, this is Irvine.  There is no such thing as "urban".  The closest we can get to that is somewhere like where the OP mentioned s/he lived at the Village, and even then, it's only walking distance to a mall.
2) Total HOA for the townhomes I was looking at were mid-high $300s (sorry, I forgot the exact number but I think it was $350-380).
3) The townhomes have very strange layouts - kind of hip and cool but many require you to walk up 2 flights of narrow stairs before you actually get to your home.  Sorry, this is not Manhattan, SF or somewhere on the beach.  Why would you want to deal with that?
4) The flats have $/SF on par with most of the other homes in the Irvine/Tustin Ranch area; but for the same price you can get a standard 2 or 3 br townhome/2ba/2-car garage and not deal with either community parking or an annoying tandem garage.
5) You still can't really walk anywhere; there's a Ruth's Chris, Starbucks, and Sport Chalet across the street but the plaza is small and aside from a few restaurants, everything closes early.  To Diamond Jamboree it's still about 1.5mi, to the District it's still about 2mi.

In conclusion - I liked CPW for its "specialty" and being a little different in OC, but it's not worth the price.  If the price came down 20-25% (wishful thinking), that may be enough to deal with strange layouts, tandem garages, and walking up flights of stairs but I highly doubt that's going to happen.
 
test said:
IndieDev said:
Then why aren't they buying them?
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The same reason they aren't buying them in the rest of the nation?  Even the TIC "new home collection" has slowed down.  Have you been living under a rock the past few years?
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Hey no need for personal attacks. I'm just asking a simple question. Your point about TIC isn't valid though. You really can't compare TIC's 2010 numbers to CPW's ... well... lack of numbers. Even in this general downturn, CPW's just isn't selling compared to Woodbury, or Portola Springs.
 
No place in OC is selling compared to Woodbury or PS.  That's my point, sales are bad everywhere.  I brought up TIC as an exception, but even that exception is not immune.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
I would stay away from CPW period.  Bad location, bad layout, bad concept, bad floor plans, etc...
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Bad location - I don't think so. Close to thousands of businesses in irvine. Close to freeway for a quick commute or quick access all over oc. Walking distance to many restaurants. Would be better if there was better retail however. Many studies show generation Y (the future of home buyers) want quick access to the things they need.

Bad layout - I guess this us personal preference, but what makes the layout bad? I think they layout is good, club house and pool are central to the community with parks spread throughout.  True it wont be fully completed for probably 3 years though.

Bad concept - like I said before, gen Y (people my age) find this concept perfect. Same with older baby boomers. They want to move down in size as they retire with more conveniences.

Bad floor plans - I thought they were fine at belvedere. Not exactly amazing, but I found nothing wrong with them.


The big problem right now is price and very high HOA dues, along with how much construction is still going on there. Their price per square foot is on par with many properties out there, but have much higher HOAs with high MR. They need to be 15% below market to entice buyers.

The problem here is price and timing. It will be a great place to buy at some point, and that depends on prices and project progress. That could be 6 months from now, or 3 years. Only time will tell.
 
If this project were located in central LA, Culver City, or Santa Monica, it might just have a chance. However in Irvine, this project is going to get converted to rentals, or bulldozed.
 
I'm going to have to agree with IndieDev and USCTrojanCPA.  See my post above for why.  For a community like Irvine, this project doesn't make very much sense because for the same price you can get a much more convenient location (in terms of proximity to shops, grocery stores, etc.), further away from landing planes, and not have to deal with strange layouts (not the community, but many of the homes themselves) or shared parking.  I hate to say this, cvballa but it really sounds like you're trying to convince yourself.

Again, I do like CPW for being different in Irvine, it just doesn't make sense given the structure of the city and surrounding area.  But I do agree that if prices came down 20% or so it would be more attractive to young professionals like myself.
 
IndieDev said:
If this project were located in central LA, Culver City, or Santa Monica, it might just have a chance.
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And get shot up by gang bangers?  No thanks.
 
diulei said:
I'm going to have to agree with IndieDev and USCTrojanCPA.  See my post above for why.  For a community like Irvine, this project doesn't make very much sense because for the same price you can get a much more convenient location (in terms of proximity to shops, grocery stores, etc.), further away from landing planes, and not have to deal with strange layouts (not the community, but many of the homes themselves) or shared parking.  I hate to say this, cvballa but it really sounds like you're trying to convince yourself.

Again, I do like CPW for being different in Irvine, it just doesn't make sense given the structure of the city and surrounding area.  But I do agree that if prices came down 20% or so it would be more attractive to young professionals like myself.
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Irvine just hasn't hit that "critical mass" yet to support these type of urban living construction projects. North Korean Towers, CPW, and Skyline are all colossal monetary failures because they were all based on a market that has become a shadow of a thought in 2011.

Maybe in 20-25 years, but that borders on irrelevance for most of us.
 
I've read all about the IBC.  At this point, coming to fruition is about as likely as the subway going from Downtown LA to Santa Monica.  Is it going to happen eventually? Maybe. Anytime soon (as in, within 15 years)? Not a chance.
 
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