Central Park West thoughts?

cvballa said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
CV, here is my thoughts on Central Park West....DON'T BUY THERE!!!  If you are planning on the purchase becoming a rental in the near future, why not consider buying a property in a city outside of Irvine where the numbers pencil out better?  If you are dead set on buying in Irvine, take a look at other areas such as Oak Creek, Northpark, Northwood Pointe, etc.
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My main motivation is that I like the urban lifestyle that CPW offers.  There are definitely drawbacks on price, but I do not expect to make money as a rental soon, but I also don't want to eat $1000 month if I rent it out.  I can handle eating $200-300 a month.  Any ideas of an alternative urban living situation in south orange county?

Also, does anyone know if the $400 HOA for the building covers anything like trash, water, etc?
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Does anyone think eating $200-300 a month on a rental is ever a good idea? Doesnt that tell you that you are overpaying?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Isn't the Diamond Jamboree area urban living now? Heh.

The Spectrum might count too.
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Well I live at the village now which is right next to the spectrum and I love being able to walk to the spectrum and we have a grocery store, starbucks and cleaners within the complex.  I love that feature and was thinking CPW will be the closest thing to that replicating my current situation.

I have a one bedroom paying $1515 right now for a very small place.  I can obviously afford more, but I also do not want to overspend.
 
qwerty said:
cvballa said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
CV, here is my thoughts on Central Park West....DON'T BUY THERE!!!  If you are planning on the purchase becoming a rental in the near future, why not consider buying a property in a city outside of Irvine where the numbers pencil out better?  If you are dead set on buying in Irvine, take a look at other areas such as Oak Creek, Northpark, Northwood Pointe, etc.
Click to expand...

My main motivation is that I like the urban lifestyle that CPW offers.  There are definitely drawbacks on price, but I do not expect to make money as a rental soon, but I also don't want to eat $1000 month if I rent it out.  I can handle eating $200-300 a month.  Any ideas of an alternative urban living situation in south orange county?

Also, does anyone know if the $400 HOA for the building covers anything like trash, water, etc?
Click to expand...

Does anyone think eating $200-300 a month on a rental is ever a good idea? Doesnt that tell you that you are overpaying?
Click to expand...

Its not bad if you are building equity and you are bullish on housing and the location of the place.  10 years from now, that deficit should become cash flow positive.

On the $389k property I figured it out and the monthly outgo would be about $3,200 a month.  And similar properties are renting around $2,500 a month.  To me that different is unacceptable.  To me that number has to get below $3,000 for me to make it worth wild.  In 4-5 years that $2,500 should be around $2,800 based on normal rent inflation.  The price would have to fall to around $350k for me to buy.
 
Building "equity" is just forced savings. You seem to be a good saver already, why would you tie up your money in an "investment" that historically will only return 1-3% above inflation?
 
IndieDev said:
Building "equity" is just forced savings. You seem to be a good saver already, why would you tie up your money in an "investment" that historically will only return 1-3% above inflation?
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Because it will be leveraged money.  Plus a diversifier as I have a lot of my savings tied to the stock market.  I am a big believer in not putting all your assets into one asset class.  I would like to spread it around.

Obviously the numbers must work out, but with HOAs at $550 a month it makes it hard to argue.  Like I said, if prices were to go down about %10 from where they are now then it would make more sense.  My lease isnt up for another 5 months so I have time to wait it out and weigh my options.
 
cvballa don't bother trying to explain yourself to the sheeple on this board.  The IBC is the future of Irvine.  Only communities like Turtle Rock will maintain their value due elevation premium, the rest of the "villages" and "new home collection" will be left in rot and decay.

 
test said:
cvballa don't bother trying to explain yourself to the sheeple on this board.  The IBC is the future of Irvine.  Only communities like Turtle Rock will maintain their value due elevation premium, the rest of the "villages" and "new home collection" will be left in rot and decay.
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See I agree with that... urban communities are the future, not urban sprawl.  That being said, I am not going to pay outrageous prices that do not reflect fundamentals.  $550 HOA dues are pretty outrageous!  I understand the $150 plan HOA for the pool and gym and locker room etc, but $400 for the building?  What does that go to?  You got a small amount of upkeep for the bushes and common area lights and some cleanings.  Thats $400 a month per resident?  Thats just outrageous I feel like.
 
bones said:
you are being short sighted with the $400.  yes, in the short term, it's for "upkeep of the bushes and common area lights", but since the unit is housed within a larger building, the HOA will need to fund a reserve for major building repairs down the road (HVAC, roof, etc).  Also, I can't remember if this building has an elevator but sounds like it does, then part of that goes towards elevator maintanence.

I don't necessarily agree with the $400 # nor do I think "urban" living necessarily works in Irvine, but go to any major city with multifamily housing and you will see the same type of fees.  In some cities, they're called condominium fees (versus HOA) and can run anywhere from the low hundreds to $1000+.  This is the reason why most people can't afford to buy in Manhattan.  Everyone can afford the mortgage.  It's the condo fees + taxes that presents the biggest hurdle on a monthly basis.
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Good points
 
cvballa said:
IndieDev said:
Building "equity" is just forced savings. You seem to be a good saver already, why would you tie up your money in an "investment" that historically will only return 1-3% above inflation?
Click to expand...

Because it will be leveraged money.  Plus a diversifier as I have a lot of my savings tied to the stock market.  I am a big believer in not putting all your assets into one asset class.  I would like to spread it around.

Obviously the numbers must work out, but with HOAs at $550 a month it makes it hard to argue.  Like I said, if prices were to go down about %10 from where they are now then it would make more sense.  My lease isnt up for another 5 months so I have time to wait it out and weigh my options.
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That would only work if you expect a big upswing for CPW. I just don't see it. Irvine prices with Santa Ana zoned schools. Unless the demographics of Irvine change drastically in the next 4-5 years, I don't see the return to be honest.

But I won't try to argue you out of it if the numbers make sense for you. I guess we'll just see.
 
IndieDev said:
cvballa said:
IndieDev said:
Building "equity" is just forced savings. You seem to be a good saver already, why would you tie up your money in an "investment" that historically will only return 1-3% above inflation?
Click to expand...

Because it will be leveraged money.  Plus a diversifier as I have a lot of my savings tied to the stock market.  I am a big believer in not putting all your assets into one asset class.  I would like to spread it around.

Obviously the numbers must work out, but with HOAs at $550 a month it makes it hard to argue.  Like I said, if prices were to go down about %10 from where they are now then it would make more sense.  My lease isnt up for another 5 months so I have time to wait it out and weigh my options.
Click to expand...

That would only work if you expect a big upswing for CPW. I just don't see it. Irvine prices with Santa Ana zoned schools. Unless the demographics of Irvine change drastically in the next 4-5 years, I don't see the return to be honest.

But I won't try to argue you out of it if the numbers make sense for you. I guess we'll just see.
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I dont think school district will be a major factor in price for this development.  The people that want to live there will be retirees and local business people.  Incomes will be the primary driver to price appreciation.  If you want a good school, you are more likely to have a family and would look for a single family residence. 
 
I understand your logic, but I just don't see the strength based on Irvine's current demographics. Things could change in 4-5 years. So we'll see.

 
Regarding schools, there's an empty plot of land directly south of Columbus Grove that is zoned for schools, IUSD will likely build a new school there to serve the IBC.  There is a lot of swirl going around IUSD, TUSD, SAUSD about how they're going to serve the 15,000 new residential units in the IBC.
 
cvballa said:
IndieDev said:
cvballa said:
IndieDev said:
Building "equity" is just forced savings. You seem to be a good saver already, why would you tie up your money in an "investment" that historically will only return 1-3% above inflation?
Click to expand...

Because it will be leveraged money.  Plus a diversifier as I have a lot of my savings tied to the stock market.  I am a big believer in not putting all your assets into one asset class.  I would like to spread it around.

Obviously the numbers must work out, but with HOAs at $550 a month it makes it hard to argue.  Like I said, if prices were to go down about %10 from where they are now then it would make more sense.  My lease isnt up for another 5 months so I have time to wait it out and weigh my options.
Click to expand...

That would only work if you expect a big upswing for CPW. I just don't see it. Irvine prices with Santa Ana zoned schools. Unless the demographics of Irvine change drastically in the next 4-5 years, I don't see the return to be honest.

But I won't try to argue you out of it if the numbers make sense for you. I guess we'll just see.
Click to expand...

I dont think school district will be a major factor in price for this development.  The people that want to live there will be retirees and local business people.  Incomes will be the primary driver to price appreciation.  If you want a good school, you are more likely to have a family and would look for a single family residence. 
Click to expand...

the best place to make money is too anticipate what the herd will be doing next and get there first. I dont necessarily agree with what you think will happen (but if i was right in what i thought would happen i would be rich and would not be at my computer right now typing on this forum), so good luck.
 
Does anyone have any info on the number of phases that have been released at the Belvedere?  And how many there will be and over what period of time that might be?
 
Looks like they are starting to lower prices.... the cheapest Belvedere plan just got lowered to $379k from $389k.  I did not notice a change in the others.

I wonder if this is just the start of them realizing their prices are too high.
 
It's going to get ugly once they realize that urban hipsters who make $80,000 and have $100,000 saved up in the bank don't choose to live in Irvine.
 
Right, senior VPs, and other $500,000k earners are going to buy up Central Park West. What was I thinking.  ::)
 
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