Belvedere at Eastwood

acf said:
Well lets hope for 400. at 425 or 450 there's not much room for any appreciation.
I think at the 400 price point (slightly above for the smallest plan and maybe slightly below in phase 1 for the larger plan), they can hit volumes and move the project (and also have room for some natural price appreciation, etc). They probably can still work at 425, but I think greater risk of the project just taking a lot longer. That usually isn't TIC's MO, but you never know. 

I also am curious whether they want to stick it to Five Points. 
 
Sounds like a good guess to me Bullsback. At 425-450 there is little to no room for natural appreciation. Like you said, it might still work but it depends on the variables and their time table. What's left in stonegate is mostly bigger homes, and OH is all in the later phases and considered "premium location".

All this being said, it doesnt look like Eastwood will have a half olympic dedicated lap pool. As someone who likes to swim laps for exercise, is it stupid for me to consider this a potential deal breaker for buying in Eastwood? I use the lap pool in Woodbury all the time. While not quite as fancy as Woodbury's lap pool, Stonegate has a lap pool as well.
 
acf said:
Well lets hope for 400. at 425 or 450 there's not much room for any appreciation.

Do you buy a house to live in betting on appreciation? How big of an issue is this in your buying decision?
 
Bullsback said:
By the way, I should point out I'm looking at Belvedere here in terms of pricing and am focusing more on the pricing of the larger plans vs. necessarily the intro plan. You look at Laurel and I think their 2400 sq ft is somewhere just shy of 420 / ft.  Momentum hasn't been super fast on that so I presume when TIC opens early phases, you'd see that square footage start slightly below (although I might be mistaken). But as you trend up, when you have options in the 2500-3000 sqft SFR already pricing in a similar range, you'd presume TIC comes in pretty consistent with that pricing.

The real question is what is TIC's view of the marketplace and what are their goals. With it being a new overall project, do they want to start with early momentum and thus be a little lower priced (somewhat canibalizing existing product, but not too significantly because the larger stuff is most of what is in new sale in Stonegate and OH has driven up quite a bit so you have room their (plus a presumed premium).  That said you don't have to worry to much if someone wants a 3000+ sq ft house of them  being too focused on Eastwood anyway (since the early phases won't help them, unless they are willing to drop down to 2800). 

All that said, I hadn't realized how much Layfayette had ticked up (they started pretty low...sub 400 ft) and along with Strada are one of the few SFR projects that seem to have rolled pretty strongly in this market.  Belvedere / Cressa both fit into a similar market, with Strada leveraging OH and nice streets and Layfayette leveraging pretty nice lots by TIC standards.

I'd guess IP might build on their successful sales strategy at Strada, where plans are substantially similar to Belvedere, and begin pricing slightly below market, and build sales momentum and urgency in buyers' minds.
 
Perspective said:
acf said:
Well lets hope for 400. at 425 or 450 there's not much room for any appreciation.

Do you buy a house to live in betting on appreciation? How big of an issue is this in your buying decision?
I consider more the downside risk vs. upside risk when buying a house.  Obviously affordability is a given factor, but no matter what you can afford, you never know what unforeseen circumstances come up to the point that you need to exit much shorter term then you expect. If I'm already paying a premium, I'm less likely to buy said place if I see more downside risk (which could truly impact you if you need to sell short-term) vs. potential upside risk.  Reason being, if I had a major job event (relo / significant job loss) or life event, I wouldn't want to have a large risk of getting totally taken in the shorts having to exit at a significantly deflated price. 

My opinion might be different if I didn't already have a natural hedge of an existing property. 
 
This is pretty much spot on. No, im not expecting to make out like a bandit... but no, I don't want to buy a depreciating asset, especially when for me, it's not necessary. Let's just be educated :)


Bullsback said:
Perspective said:
acf said:
Well lets hope for 400. at 425 or 450 there's not much room for any appreciation.

Do you buy a house to live in betting on appreciation? How big of an issue is this in your buying decision?
I consider more the downside risk vs. upside risk when buying a house.  Obviously affordability is a given factor, but no matter what you can afford, you never know what unforeseen circumstances come up to the point that you need to exit much shorter term then you expect. If I'm already paying a premium, I'm less likely to buy said place if I see more downside risk (which could truly impact you if you need to sell short-term) vs. potential upside risk.  Reason being, if I had a major job event (relo / significant job loss) or life event, I wouldn't want to have a large risk of getting totally taken in the shorts having to exit at a significantly deflated price. 

My opinion might be different if I didn't already have a natural hedge of an existing property. 
 
Bullsback said:
Perspective said:
acf said:
Well lets hope for 400. at 425 or 450 there's not much room for any appreciation.

Do you buy a house to live in betting on appreciation? How big of an issue is this in your buying decision?
I consider more the downside risk vs. upside risk when buying a house.  Obviously affordability is a given factor, but no matter what you can afford, you never know what unforeseen circumstances come up to the point that you need to exit much shorter term then you expect. If I'm already paying a premium, I'm less likely to buy said place if I see more downside risk (which could truly impact you if you need to sell short-term) vs. potential upside risk.  Reason being, if I had a major job event (relo / significant job loss) or life event, I wouldn't want to have a large risk of getting totally taken in the shorts having to exit at a significantly deflated price. 

My opinion might be different if I didn't already have a natural hedge of an existing property. 

+1. This.  Just look at that Capella. Bought high (even within the tract). Now they have to relocate and can't sell the thing without taking a bath. I think it's off market now.
 
All good stuff in general regarding pricing, life changing event and investment decision making.

Obviously, it's a balance that's the key.  One can't never be sure that housing will appreciate forever but can't do much if one thinks it's too expensive and will fall so won't buy anything.

In a nutshell, may be this is a part of reason why business owners do have bigger or more expensive houses since they are likely to stay put or have more freedom to stay and do business wherever they want.  Ones with jobs, can't make that decision most of time when layoffs, relocation, company changes happen...

My two concerns always have been, 1) am I willing to endure downturn, say 15% cut from and live more than 7 to 10 years to recoup if that happens and 2) how can I compete with cash buyers (or ones put down more than 20%). 

My situation is pretty stable and our job situation is little more predictable than others so staying in OC won't be much of a problem so there goes downside risk issue.  However, even with 20% down pay, good FICO and great job/income source, there seems to be other buyers with more cash and quicker decision making mind...

Piedmont and Belvedere both look good but don't know how competition would be like.  If price is little lower than expected, we may see Ellwood (Beacon Park) situation here...
 
acf said:
Jay, thanks for the reply. What's the Ellwood Beacon park situation? I'm not familiar.

No, I mean Ellwood's phase 1 and 2 asking price (except premium lot and drive way) was low compared to other similar homes so it got sold fast phase after phase even with appreciation compared to other models around in BP.  Belvedere or Piedmont have floor plans that are similar to other previous popular homes like Saratoga or Terrazza and Eastwood versions have driveways (I assume) so if the price point appears to be cheaper than ones in OH or BP, buyers may flock in and purchase right away...

I just saw posts on Ellwood and they are now phase 10. Nash went up like $60k and Nolan/Nathaniel plan are up almost $80k since their original asking price I think.  That's within 6 month? Then annualized appreciation is almost 15% or more even during this slowing and getting into winter season market...
 
pricedoutJay said:
acf said:
Jay, thanks for the reply. What's the Ellwood Beacon park situation? I'm not familiar.

No, I mean Ellwood's phase 1 and 2 asking price (except premium lot and drive way) was low compared to other similar homes so it got sold fast phase after phase even with appreciation compared to other models around in BP.  Belvedere or Piedmont have floor plans that are similar to other previous popular homes like Saratoga or Terrazza and Eastwood versions have driveways (I assume) so if the price point appears to be cheaper than ones in OH or BP, buyers may flock in and purchase right away...

I just saw posts on Ellwood and they are now phase 10. Nash went up like $60k and Nolan/Nathaniel plan are up almost $80k since their original asking price I think.  That's within 6 month? Then annualized appreciation is almost 15% or more even during this slowing and getting into winter season market...
I think a major difference with Ellwood is A, the price point, which is lower than the Eastwood SFR's being discussed, as well as the uniqueness of the overall floorplans. Their isn't a whole lot that will be unique about this development vs. other recent developments from Ipac and floorplans will be similar as well (and I'm not saying that is a bad thing as I happen to like quite a bit of IPAC's floorplans).  Plus the 1M+ market is on the softer side, which again, is why I kind of highlight my personal opinion that IPAC should target a price that generates positive momentum (especially since this is going to be a pretty big development...you don't want to kick your development off with limited momentum, imo).

Now I just have to make sure I maneuver myself near the top of the lists so I can actually act if the pricing, lots, etc, are right. 
 
Bullsback,

How do you maneuver to get to the top of the list, other than being on the interest list and try calling them but never get anywhere except voice mail?  Thanks.
 
pricedoutJay said:
acf said:
Jay, thanks for the reply. What's the Ellwood Beacon park situation? I'm not familiar.

No, I mean Ellwood's phase 1 and 2 asking price (except premium lot and drive way) was low compared to other similar homes so it got sold fast phase after phase even with appreciation compared to other models around in BP.  Belvedere or Piedmont have floor plans that are similar to other previous popular homes like Saratoga or Terrazza and Eastwood versions have driveways (I assume) so if the price point appears to be cheaper than ones in OH or BP, buyers may flock in and purchase right away...

I just saw posts on Ellwood and they are now phase 10. Nash went up like $60k and Nolan/Nathaniel plan are up almost $80k since their original asking price I think.  That's within 6 month? Then annualized appreciation is almost 15% or more even during this slowing and getting into winter season market...

Whoa, if we're gonna annualize appreciation rates, then Strada's in the 15% range too. Not sure how much value this adds to the decision making process.
 
pricedoutJay said:
Bullsback,

How do you maneuver to get to the top of the list, other than being on the interest list and try calling them but never get anywhere except voice mail?  Thanks.

suitcase-cash.jpg
 
irvinehomeowner said:
pricedoutJay said:
Bullsback,

How do you maneuver to get to the top of the list, other than being on the interest list and try calling them but never get anywhere except voice mail?  Thanks.

suitcase-cash.jpg

I sort knew that was coming...  but wondering if Bullsback had some other way...
 
Perspective said:
Whoa, if we're gonna annualize appreciation rates, then Strada's in the 15% range too. Not sure how much value this adds to the decision making process.

Not much... I was pointing out that Ellwood was more successful in selling their homes than other homes while maintaining gradual appreciation...
 
pricedoutJay said:
Bullsback,

How do you maneuver to get to the top of the list, other than being on the interest list and try calling them but never get anywhere except voice mail?  Thanks.
I don't know any other way than jumping on the prequal when it starts and being on the interest list. I don't think you'll find out that their are as many qualified people on the lists as one might believe.  If their were, the market would be hotter than it is. Just my two cents. I know at Beacon I had a shot at buying phase 1 on about 4 products. That said, Beacon was easier as separate builders and IP is in my opinion tougher to work with. 
 
Bullsback said:
pricedoutJay said:
Bullsback,

How do you maneuver to get to the top of the list, other than being on the interest list and try calling them but never get anywhere except voice mail?  Thanks.
I don't know any other way than jumping on the prequal when it starts and being on the interest list. I don't think you'll find out that their are as many qualified people on the lists as one might believe.  If their were, the market would be hotter than it is. Just my two cents. I know at Beacon I had a shot at buying phase 1 on about 4 products. That said, Beacon was easier as separate builders and IP is in my opinion tougher to work with. 
Completely true, Beacon I had a shot at many phase 1, many of which are still unsold!  (except for ellwood)
Even with PP, I looked around early/mid timeframe, they said contingent would be fine, Cypress when it first opened with Mulberry, they said I wouldn't even be on the list...
 
Yep, currently the market is not as crazy as back in 2013 when Mulberry were introduced.  But back then, I did manager to get on the list and got offered first phase homes at Mulberry by using this method I posted here.

I would say right now buyer can easily get a home within the first two phases but doesn't hurt if the buyer prepared ahead of time and be the first on the priority list.
 
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