Author Topic: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND  (Read 802 times)

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Offline morekaos

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INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« on: May 28, 2021, 10:34:19 AM »
Cycles are cycles are cycles....

Faster than expected inflation ‘is actually a good sign,’ White House official says

On Thursday, President Joe Biden traveled to Ohio to make the case that the economy is headed in the right direction. “We’ve turned the tide,” he told the crowd in Cleveland.
Shortly afterward, during an appearance on Yahoo Finance Live, one of his top economic advisers acknowledged that in areas like inflation and in the labor market, “there's going to be some bumps in the road” as the economy continues to right itself following the pandemic.

However, National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti also told Yahoo Finance that the recent inflation jump is actually a positive sign. “The faster than expected increase in some of those prices is actually a good sign in the sense that it's a sign that the economy is recovering faster than a lot of people expected,” he said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/faster-than-expected-inflation-is-actually-a-good-sign-white-house-official-says/ar-AAKunfm?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Dan Akroyd pretending to be President Jimmy Carter on Saturday Night Live and 45 years ahead of his time:

“President Jimmy Carter: Good evening. On Tuesday, we Americans will have the opportunity to exercise our role as citizens in a free democracy. Yet, only a third of the eligible voters will actually cast ballots. The other two-thirds are, in a sense, very lucky. Because they do not know what’s going on.

“Last week, I delivered a message on inflation. Since then, the dollar has dropped in value, the stock market has sustained record losses, and the whole Dow price index increased 0.9%. In other words, our economic system is screwed, blued and tatooed! We just have to face the fact that there is simply no way to fight inflation in a capitally-intensive, highly-technological, conflict-riddled, anything-for-a-thrill world of today. That’s why, tonight, I want you to try to look at inflation in an entirely new way: Inflation is our friend.

“For example, consider this: in the year 2000, if current trends continue, the average blue-collar annual wage in this country will be $568,000. Think what this inflated world of the future will mean – most Americans will be millionaires. Everyone will feel like a bigshot. Wouldn’t you like to own a $4,000 suit, and smoke a $75 cigar, drive a $600,000 car? I know I would! But what about people on fixed incomes? They have always been the true victims of inflation. That’s why I will present to Congress the ‘Inflation Maintenance Program’, whereby the U.S. Treasury will make up any inflation-caused losses to direct tax rebates to the public in cash. Then you may say, ‘Won’t that cost a lot of money? Won’t that increase the deficit?’ Sure it will! But so what? We’ll just print more money! We have the papers, we have the mints. I can just call up the Bureau of Engraving and say, ‘Hi! This is Jimmy. Roll out some of them twenties! Print up a couple thousand sheets of those Century Notes!’ Sure, all these dollars will cause even more inflation, but who cares? Everyone will be a millionaire!

“In my speech last week, I said that America would have to undergo an austerity program, but since this revolutionary new approach welcomes inflation, our economy will be free to grow, and we can spend, spend, spend! I believe the watchwords for the ’80s should be ‘Let’s Party!’

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/jimmy-carter-on-inflation-cold-open/3007609

Offline daedalus

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2021, 01:25:31 PM »
The Fed has declared any undesirable inflation (that which is above the normal yet undefined desired inflation) to be transitory.  Or, to paraphrase, "It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”

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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2021, 01:32:57 PM »
It's okay, those aren't the droids either.

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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2021, 05:18:44 PM »
This idea that all of this will go away reminds me of this:




Inflation is the Keyser Sose of economic theory.
My .02c

SGIP

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Offline morekaos

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #4 on: June 10, 2021, 07:54:57 AM »
This is good...right?

'Biden's inflation crisis is here': Inflation jumps to 5% through April in the quickest rise since the Great Recession as Republicans blame soaring prices on massive Democrat stimulus programs
Overall consumer prices rose 0.6% in May, totaling 5% over the prior 12 months
It is the fastest rise in inflation since August 2008 during the Great Recession
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up 3.8% in fastest increase since 1992
Republicans blame freewheeling Fed monetary policy and Democrats' massive federal spending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9672595/Inflation-jumps-5-April-quickest-rise-2008.html

Offline daedalus

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2021, 06:11:24 PM »
It's not yet widely accepted but everywhere I look I see inflation.  We have asterisked unfavorable economic measures with a COVID caveat, but I think the inflation will remain long after COVID is no longer a front page news item, and income disparity will get worse.  Not the stuff of healthy and stable societies.

Lumber is the product du jour for many discussions about inflation.  It's seriously messed up, for anyone who hasn't yet heard. For a more specific look, OSB is a great example, which is commonly used for sheathing houses; i.e., a lot of it is needed to build a house.   2 years ago a 4x8 sheet was about $10, give or take.  Today you can expect to pay about $70 for that same sheet.  2x4 lumber, or "sticks", are even more ubiquitous in home building. What used to cost about $3 is now about $12.  I read that a recent study shows that the cost of lumber today is adding $38000 to the average price of building a home, which I think is complete BS.  That would suggest it used to cost under $10000 for the lumber in a home.  No way has that been the case in a very long time.

The common wisdom I read in online comments is people who can afford to wait are doing so, and holding off on completing optional projects.  Sheds, porches, add-ons, etc...folks are waiting to pay $3 for that 2x4 before they will commit to the project.  I'm afraid that if they stick to their guns, the projects will never get done.  We might not see $12 sticks forever, but I don't think we'll see $3 prices again in the next 2 years and, depending on other inflationary winds, maybe never again.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2021, 10:45:26 AM »
This is good...right?

'Biden's inflation crisis is here': Inflation jumps to 5% through April in the quickest rise since the Great Recession as Republicans blame soaring prices on massive Democrat stimulus programs
Overall consumer prices rose 0.6% in May, totaling 5% over the prior 12 months
It is the fastest rise in inflation since August 2008 during the Great Recession
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up 3.8% in fastest increase since 1992
Republicans blame freewheeling Fed monetary policy and Democrats' massive federal spending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9672595/Inflation-jumps-5-April-quickest-rise-2008.html

I doubt one person here remembers the days of inflation. I must be older than most everyone and I was young enough (parents bought food, lived at home to go to college etc) to only know the tail end when I couldn't buy a house cuz prices had gone up so much and interest rates ended up being sky high to fight it.

I know it's going to hurt the lower income people the worst by far and no amount of hey ma, look at min. wage is going to help.


Offline nosuchreality

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2021, 11:40:20 AM »
This is good...right?

'Biden's inflation crisis is here': Inflation jumps to 5% through April in the quickest rise since the Great Recession as Republicans blame soaring prices on massive Democrat stimulus programs
Overall consumer prices rose 0.6% in May, totaling 5% over the prior 12 months
It is the fastest rise in inflation since August 2008 during the Great Recession
Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up 3.8% in fastest increase since 1992
Republicans blame freewheeling Fed monetary policy and Democrats' massive federal spending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9672595/Inflation-jumps-5-April-quickest-rise-2008.html

I doubt one person here remembers the days of inflation. I must be older than most everyone and I was young enough (parents bought food, lived at home to go to college etc) to only know the tail end when I couldn't buy a house cuz prices had gone up so much and interest rates ended up being sky high to fight it.

I know it's going to hurt the lower income people the worst by far and no amount of hey ma, look at min. wage is going to help.



I'm same age-ish, I remember talking to my credit union about a used car loan when I was working through college, the rate for a 2 year loan would have been 18%.  I remember my short term CDs 3 month and 6 month were paying double digits.

I remember the family dinner talk during the Oil Embargo, concerns Dad's union would strike, and the rising price talk leading up to Reagan's election

Offline daedalus

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2021, 02:40:51 PM »
I was a kid but I remember it.  I asked my mother what the word meant because it was mentioned so much.   I remember the angst the word brought.  I remember numismatics, gold and silver were in vogue.  My father dragged me to coin shows to look for rarities.  And to the beach with his metal detector to do the same there.  He did find some interesting things.  Eventually the city would start combing the sand nightly with a large zamboni-like beach cleaner and the treasures were no more.

Maybe it's time to stock up on toilet paper again, to avoid the annual 5% price hikes that are coming.  Or maybe globalization will come to our rescue.

Offline woodburyowner

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2021, 06:22:38 PM »
I think we are definitely not in a "transitory" inflationary period.  Once people think inflation is here, prices rise all over the place and the price will never go back down.  My house cleaner just upped her rate by 22% and said he is asking all her customers to pay more.  I am now increasing all my tenant's rent during renewal 5-7% (previous 5 years I only did 2-3%).  I was able to raise my rent 9% on a recent vacancy.  My actual cost has not gone up these percentages, but since everyone is talking inflation it seems like people are more understanding/willing to pay a higher rent.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2021, 04:36:06 PM »
I was a kid but I remember it.  I asked my mother what the word meant because it was mentioned so much.   I remember the angst the word brought.  I remember numismatics, gold and silver were in vogue.  My father dragged me to coin shows to look for rarities.  And to the beach with his metal detector to do the same there.  He did find some interesting things.  Eventually the city would start combing the sand nightly with a large zamboni-like beach cleaner and the treasures were no more.

Maybe it's time to stock up on toilet paper again, to avoid the annual 5% price hikes that are coming.  Or maybe globalization will come to our rescue.

If you need diapers, time to buy some extras. When I have too many extra bucks at cvs I sometimes buy diapers (I sell some baby gifts that use diapers in them, so I can always use some but not as many as I got trying to burn my bucks when the lockdown started). I sometimes sell the extras on offer up and my price used to be a little higher than could be had on amazon........ not any more. Not sure if pg/kimberly clark has already raised what they are going to for the year but if not, sticker shock is coming in a few months.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: INFLATION IS OUR FRIEND
« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2021, 07:11:02 PM »
Maybe I’m the only one that believes in the fed here. Inflation is definitely here but I don’t see it impacting people to the degree that some people think it will.

It’s unsurprising prices are going up now since factories are not able to keep up with the demand. This goes for produce, travel, lumbar, etc. Once you lock up an economy and everyone is stuck at home, everyone will want to go out. So yes, there will be an initial shock to the system which is currently happening in front of us but eventually people will have traveled, production will get back to “normal” and be able to meet the demand of the consumers.

I mean how many times can one travel a year? How many fruits/meat can one eat in a household? Lumbar is dropping dramatically as well. I think inflationary concerns will be ongoing until after a couple months after the eviction and forbearance moratorium ends.

This isn’t to say that prices will go down. It’s to explain that prices will go up but will stabilize once things are back to normal.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2021, 07:55:38 PM by sleepy5136 »

 

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