Author Topic: What the "Dow" is happening?  (Read 50700 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #450 on: February 01, 2019, 07:47:40 AM »
What are you his Rudy? Because your not doing a good job defending him. In essence your continuing the conversation. I don’t mind actually.

Of course I have an issue with posts that try to change the narrative.

But the particular narrative here was how low mortgage rates are. Then someone said it could be affected by politics and SGIP chimed in that rates could be affected by anything.

I don't see how that was changing the narrative. Maybe it challenged what you feel politically but that's a separate issue.

Just like the midterm thread he complains about voting with no evidence of fraud. But when I call him out about it straight silence just like this thread.

Sure, but that happened there. Again, the focus of his post here was the whim of rates, not really politics. Maybe he used a bad example to illustrate what he was saying but you keep digressing from the intent (at least what I think the intent was).

Of course we can talk about the Dow.


Interesting words you are using... "defending"... does that mean you are "attacking"?

All I am saying is that to me, his post was about the whim of rates, sure he may have referenced something political but that he was just continuing on the theme that fortune11 had posted right before:

Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today

Maybe this is the wrong thread for this — but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence — you need to also be thinking ...

Think of this scenario — fed turns dovish on rates — trump calls ceasefire w Chiina — pboc keeps cutting rates — semi stocks stabilize — s&p hits 15 percents from here ...

Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does — you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself

Again, maybe because you guys don't align politically shouldn't detract from the point of his post that rate fluctuation is very hard to predict based on politics.

Do you agree or disagree with that? And does that same principal apply to the Dow?

The intent? Don’t you see what they are doing? Trying to mislead people. Lies after lies or don’t give all the facts/spin the story to fit their message. Just like the middle tax break before the midterms that never happened. I’m sorry I’m going to call it out.

Again, I don't think that was the focal point of SGIP's post.

Let's get back to it... do you think interest rates... or the Dow... are strongly tied to morning announcements from the government? I do think there is some influence but it's usually short term and there are other factors that are more influential.
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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #451 on: February 01, 2019, 10:43:33 PM »
I am not a housing expert and I always defer to domain specialists like usc , sgip, cv, eyephone, iho , Mety, etc that have far more micro level color than I do - I attempt to learn from all of the comments they post

What I have a good sense for based on my own knowledge, job experience and how asset prices move , is the macro data and “beta “ ... hence my calls re interest rates and equity markets , munis, and tresury bonds, junk bonds , which if you have been following me carefully ( and not blindly attacking like some of the maga crowd does) , you should have made decent returns

Now back on housing — I have been following the beta rally in home builders and coupled with the super dovish fed which will give another much needed support to the economy , is indicating something re housing market that should not be ignored.  My sense is builders are now heavily motivated to cut prices and move inventory which should lead to a volume pickup which will more than offset the price drop to make up better earnings growth

Again, just saying it like it is . I don’t do calendar year or point in time forecasts as that is not a practically useful exercise from a personal finance perspective.

I'll provide a little info from what I've personally experienced.  In Sept-Nov, I had 5 buyers go "on hold" because rates were getting towards 5% and prices were falling.  Within the past few weeks, 4 of those buyers re-activated their home search and I got 2 of them into escrow.  When I asked them why they are back in the home search they said that the combo of lower rates and prices made them feel a lot more comfy.  That being said, we made initial offers of 5-8% below the listing price and negotiated higher.  Also, a few of the home builders told me that they've seen sales pick up a bit since the past few weeks too also because of the lower rates.
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Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #452 on: February 04, 2019, 10:20:04 AM »
The recent posts timeline is again getting polluted w maga nonsense

I am unlikely to post as frequently here, but a few last tips -- I am booking some profits in SPY this week and next as targets are hit .  Don't chase this rally beyond 2750 ... keep the fixed income stuff though (junk bonds, muni etc). 

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Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #453 on: March 23, 2019, 06:31:18 AM »
Posting this for many of you who care, haters can ignore —

Remember my call not to chase this equity rally much beyond 2750.   And to stay in fixed income , especially intermediate treasuries (when they were 3 percent plus) high yield / junk and muni bonds.

The fixed income trade should have worked out fantastically well in terms of total return and income for those who did

But now while you can keep your munis etc , maybe time to lighten up on treasuries and move into 1y breakable CDs or a high yielding savings act

Only reason to hold treasuries now would be if recession probability is more than 50 percent - make your own judgement call there . Remember market is NOW pricing in Fed rate cuts !!!

As to stock indices, I was already out a little above 2750 , now I am waiting to see further evidence of a bottom in earnings before I decide to get back in . Until then , not touching the indices.


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