Author Topic: What the "Dow" is happening?  (Read 36388 times)

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Offline morekaos

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #225 on: October 25, 2018, 08:21:36 AM »
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.



https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI
« Last Edit: October 25, 2018, 01:05:29 PM by morekaos »

Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #226 on: October 25, 2018, 08:51:59 PM »
This is a classic example of why this whole business’s of financial advisory is the biggest scam yet

Market up - I told you so , didn’t I

Market down — opportunity !  When is it an opportunity ? Down 2% down 5% down 10 % ?  They never tell you do they . “

Then you Hear Mumbo jumbo about “dollar cost averaging”

They can never lose , can they :)

Offline aquabliss

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #227 on: October 29, 2018, 11:06:00 PM »
This bear market is pretty predictable and pretty easy to make $ with option selling by following my 6 simple rules

1. Buy QQQ calls and puts (don’t sell options in this crazy market)
2. Buy only on Fridays (next week expiry) and Mondays / Tuesday’s (current week expiry).  Time erosion when you buy Wed/Thur is fast and furious.
3. If buying Friday (for example), buy 5 minutes before market close, only buy is the QQQ price is up or down 1.5% or greater for that day.
4. Buy the opposite direction.  For example buy a OTM call (for next Friday expiry) if the QQQ is down 1.5% or greater.  Likewise an OTM put if the QQQ is up 1.5% or greater.  If it doesn’t move enough, don’t buy anything just wait for your next opportunity near market close on Mon or Tues.
5. Next business day around 9am Pacific, sell the contract if you’re positive.  If you’re negative, give it until about noon to turn if not, sell it anyway and take the loss.
6. Wash rinse repeat on Fri/Mon/Tues.  Get in and out quick, be disciplined, stick to the plan and don’t be greedy.

So far this has worked well for me.  For example today I bought QQQ calls for this week expiry 5min before close.  If market is up tomorrow morning I sell, if down then I wait until noon and sell regardless of price.

Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results ;)

Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #228 on: November 04, 2018, 06:40:42 PM »
For what it’s worth to anyone interested —-

Earnings are largely behind us , revisions and estimates are also fine tuned for q4 and 2019 to a large degree .

Think we have a floor here around 2600 - 2650 for the s&p.

But hard to see it break out meaningfully beyond 2850 . So we are in this range for now until next year when we will find out the true realities of trade war , fed hike path etc .


Online eyephone

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #229 on: November 04, 2018, 06:59:17 PM »
For what it’s worth to anyone interested —-

Earnings are largely behind us , revisions and estimates are also fine tuned for q4 and 2019 to a large degree .

Think we have a floor here around 2600 - 2650 for the s&p.

But hard to see it break out meaningfully beyond 2850 . So we are in this range for now until next year when we will find out the true realities of trade war , fed hike path etc .

President Donald Trump says his administration was "looking at" antitrust proceedings against tech giants Google, Amazon, and Facebook.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/trump-amazon-facebook-google-looking-at-antitrust-2018-11

Trump vs Tech

Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #230 on: November 07, 2018, 12:20:09 PM »
Which MAGA financial genius here claimed that stocks were selling off in October because of fears of dem takeover of house ?


Offline morekaos

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #231 on: November 07, 2018, 12:33:16 PM »
Not me, but I bought it. Like I said healthy, normal and opportunities.

Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #232 on: November 07, 2018, 12:49:42 PM »
Not me, but I bought it. Like I said healthy, normal and opportunities.

Ok good

Home buyers — the homebuilder etf is rallying off the lows too

Sentiment may turn again — time to negotiate a good deal if you are in the market before sellers again fall prey to renewed optimism on prices .

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #233 on: November 07, 2018, 01:29:40 PM »
I say we hit all time highs in the markets before year end, mainly due to window dressing and corporate buybacks.
Martin Mania
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Offline aquabliss

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #234 on: November 07, 2018, 02:04:27 PM »
Many of my co-workers went all cash in their bloated 401k's in the last week or 2.  Now they're all wondering if they should buy back in...

Too many inexperienced millennials running for the hills when they see a 5% drop. 

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #235 on: November 08, 2018, 09:41:14 AM »
Many of my co-workers went all cash in their bloated 401k's in the last week or 2.  Now they're all wondering if they should buy back in...

Too many inexperienced millennials running for the hills when they see a 5% drop. 

Those are called "weak hands" in the industry.
Martin Mania
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mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!

Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #236 on: November 08, 2018, 09:50:02 AM »
Many of my co-workers went all cash in their bloated 401k's in the last week or 2.  Now they're all wondering if they should buy back in...

Too many inexperienced millennials running for the hills when they see a 5% drop. 

Those are called "weak hands" in the industry.

I have to call this out as Wrong . I know actual industry experts who do this for a living

Weaker hands are hedge funds that liquidate crowded trades all together like lemmings .  High HF ownership is a recipe for volatility

I can write a whole thesis here on CTA and risk parity funds and how they affect the “beta” or the index but will save it for a different time

Blaming millennials for everything is the “easy” and sometimes “lazy” answer . Sorry if this offends anyone.

Offline fortune11

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #237 on: November 12, 2018, 12:51:37 PM »
For what it’s worth to anyone interested —-

Earnings are largely behind us , revisions and estimates are also fine tuned for q4 and 2019 to a large degree .

Think we have a floor here around 2600 - 2650 for the s&p.

But hard to see it break out meaningfully beyond 2850 . So we are in this range for now until next year when we will find out the true realities of trade war , fed hike path etc .

Playing out just as i expected 2850/2800 is ceiling hard to break , but 2600/2650 also a strong support level .

For those who asked me before , I haven’t gotten back in the market since August , but have been adding more to my fixed income investments in the meantime .

Offline Cares

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #238 on: Yesterday at 09:05:53 AM »
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.



https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI

Treading close there on your prediction right now. I guess +100 is still up for the year.

Online eyephone

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Re: What the "Dow" is happening?
« Reply #239 on: Yesterday at 09:07:43 AM »
On that note I have been very consistent. The Dow will be up for the year. Corrections like this are healthy, warranted and opportunities.



https://youtu.be/OmBxVfQTuvI

Treading close there on your prediction right now. I guess +100 is still up for the year.

Don’t forget he said it’s healthy.  ;)
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 09:36:45 AM by eyephone »

 

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