Trading Apple
- Thread starter so_scared
- Start date
Irvinecommuter
New member
daedalus said:
Problem is that they don't seem to have a plan for the future...sitting on tons of cash but not doing much. Fears of it being Blackberry 2.0.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
No hard prediction, just that Motorola would do better than Apple. Technically I won, because if Google didn't buy out Moto, they would be like HTC right now.Liar Loan said:
The backstory (and this was over 2 years ago I think) was that Apple was passe and that Android was going to dominate and while that may be somewhat true in over mobile OS usage, my contention was that Apple would not disappear and still be very viable in the phone market. Considering how much more Apple makes on app revenue and hardware sales (although Android is catching up in that regard), my opinion still stands.
But GOOG is dominating AAPL in the stock market, which isn't really an accurate measure of Android vs iOS.
morekaos
Well-known member
I like this article.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/why-wall-street-given-apple-162842389.html
The Bull Case For Apple
It gives the negatives...
?The company's growth has vanished: Earnings are expected to shrink this year.
?The company's critical product, the iPhone, has lost its edge, and the product cycle that drove Apple's mind-boggling profitability over the last several years (premium smartphone growth) is nearing its end.
?Apple's profit margin is dropping, as its main products get commoditized.
?The CEO of the company is not a product visionary and has not articulated a vision of where he wants to take Apple going forward.
?Apple's internal management may be in turmoil or at least in flux, and employees are reportedly more willing to leave than they have been before.
?No one knows if Apple has any truly great new products in the pipeline.
?Apple has cash coming out of its ears, but no clue what do with it.
?Apple's first quarter results (coming next week) are likely to be disappointing, and the company's outlook will likely force Wall Street to slash its future estimates.
and the positives....
?The stock is cheap (as illustrated above)
?We are nearing the end of the new-product blackout that began last fall. (In relatively short order, excitement should begin to build about the iPhone 5S, the new iPad Mini, and other product refreshes, even if Apple doesn't have anything truly new up its sleeves)
?While Apple's management team without Steve Jobs in charge is unproven, it's not stupid. Almost all of the folks who produced and sold Apple's great products over the past five years are still on the team.
?Apple appears to be working on a cheaper iPhone, which suggests it is finally willing to trade profit margin for growth. This is critical for the company's long-term survival, and it's something Apple should have done a couple of years ago, when it was still the industry leader. But better late than never.
?A disastrous first quarter and second-quarter outlook should radically reduce Wall Street's expectations for Apple--thus setting the bar lower. This will make it easier for Apple to positively surprise investors in the future.
?It is still possible that Apple is working on a revolutionary new product like a TV or smartwatch that will suddenly get people jazzed about the company again. Yes, as time goes by, this possibility seems more remote. But it's not zero.
?Most importantly, Apple is still well-positioned strategically, and it still makes excellent products. We are not talking about a company like Dell or HP, which are in businesses that are dying (PCs). And we're not talking about a company whose products have gone to crap. We're just talking about a company that has lost its product edge and clung too long to its super-premium pricing strategy instead of using its phenomenal profit margin and financial resources to remain both the quality leader AND the price leader. The global smartphone and tablet industries are going to continue grow rapidly over the next several years. Assuming Apple makes smart decisions on the pricing side, Apple should grow with them.
Make up your own mind.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/why-wall-street-given-apple-162842389.html
The Bull Case For Apple
It gives the negatives...
?The company's growth has vanished: Earnings are expected to shrink this year.
?The company's critical product, the iPhone, has lost its edge, and the product cycle that drove Apple's mind-boggling profitability over the last several years (premium smartphone growth) is nearing its end.
?Apple's profit margin is dropping, as its main products get commoditized.
?The CEO of the company is not a product visionary and has not articulated a vision of where he wants to take Apple going forward.
?Apple's internal management may be in turmoil or at least in flux, and employees are reportedly more willing to leave than they have been before.
?No one knows if Apple has any truly great new products in the pipeline.
?Apple has cash coming out of its ears, but no clue what do with it.
?Apple's first quarter results (coming next week) are likely to be disappointing, and the company's outlook will likely force Wall Street to slash its future estimates.
and the positives....
?The stock is cheap (as illustrated above)
?We are nearing the end of the new-product blackout that began last fall. (In relatively short order, excitement should begin to build about the iPhone 5S, the new iPad Mini, and other product refreshes, even if Apple doesn't have anything truly new up its sleeves)
?While Apple's management team without Steve Jobs in charge is unproven, it's not stupid. Almost all of the folks who produced and sold Apple's great products over the past five years are still on the team.
?Apple appears to be working on a cheaper iPhone, which suggests it is finally willing to trade profit margin for growth. This is critical for the company's long-term survival, and it's something Apple should have done a couple of years ago, when it was still the industry leader. But better late than never.
?A disastrous first quarter and second-quarter outlook should radically reduce Wall Street's expectations for Apple--thus setting the bar lower. This will make it easier for Apple to positively surprise investors in the future.
?It is still possible that Apple is working on a revolutionary new product like a TV or smartwatch that will suddenly get people jazzed about the company again. Yes, as time goes by, this possibility seems more remote. But it's not zero.
?Most importantly, Apple is still well-positioned strategically, and it still makes excellent products. We are not talking about a company like Dell or HP, which are in businesses that are dying (PCs). And we're not talking about a company whose products have gone to crap. We're just talking about a company that has lost its product edge and clung too long to its super-premium pricing strategy instead of using its phenomenal profit margin and financial resources to remain both the quality leader AND the price leader. The global smartphone and tablet industries are going to continue grow rapidly over the next several years. Assuming Apple makes smart decisions on the pricing side, Apple should grow with them.
Make up your own mind.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Low bar is low!
Apple is in trouble. Doesn't mean they can't pull out of it but they are seriously out of ideas and overly reliant on a couple of items.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
AAPL has been in the 390s for the last few days... we'll see what happens after their earnings report tomorrow.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
AAPL up to $460 now... but GOOG is at $861!!
USCTrojanCPA said:Nice play, just make sure to use a stop just in case. I think next week or the week after you can initial a Feb/March VIX calendar call spread too....you aren't getting enough premium in the Jan calls to do a Jan/Feb spread. I'm selling the weekly VXX calls this and last week, but I'm a little upset that TD bumped up my margin requirement for selling nakes VXX calls. >I'm considering moving my trading over to Options House where the pricing is better anyhow.
Have you considered trading with Interactive Brokers? They have exchange minimum margin requirements for shorting options unlike TD or Schwab (which I think has the "worst" meaning highest margin requirements for shorting options) and their option trades are only about $1/contract compared to nearly $10 for retail brokers like TD or Schwab. Also if you trade stocks on margin their margin interest rates are around 1% compared to around 7% for TD or Schwab.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
I haven't looks at IB, but I'll take a look at them. When I complained about the margin requirements, they offered to lower my pricing for trades...$7 for stock trades and $7 + $0.50/option since I'm an active trader and a good customer. I never really run into maxing out my margin levels now so that's not much of an issue. I had always assumed that the margin requirements are set by the options exchanges.fumbling said:USCTrojanCPA said:Nice play, just make sure to use a stop just in case. I think next week or the week after you can initial a Feb/March VIX calendar call spread too....you aren't getting enough premium in the Jan calls to do a Jan/Feb spread. I'm selling the weekly VXX calls this and last week, but I'm a little upset that TD bumped up my margin requirement for selling nakes VXX calls. >
Have you considered trading with Interactive Brokers? They have exchange minimum margin requirements for shorting options unlike TD or Schwab (which I think has the "worst" meaning highest margin requirements for shorting options) and their option trades are only about $1/contract compared to nearly $10 for retail brokers like TD or Schwab. Also if you trade stocks on margin their margin interest rates are around 1% compared to around 7% for TD or Schwab.
USCTrojanCPA said:I haven't looks at IB, but I'll take a look at them. When I complained about the margin requirements, they offered to lower my pricing for trades...$7 for stock trades and $7 + $0.50/option since I'm an active trader and a good customer. I never really run into maxing out my margin levels now so that's not much of an issue. I had always assumed that the margin requirements are set by the options exchanges.fumbling said:USCTrojanCPA said:Nice play, just make sure to use a stop just in case. I think next week or the week after you can initial a Feb/March VIX calendar call spread too....you aren't getting enough premium in the Jan calls to do a Jan/Feb spread. I'm selling the weekly VXX calls this and last week, but I'm a little upset that TD bumped up my margin requirement for selling nakes VXX calls. >
Have you considered trading with Interactive Brokers? They have exchange minimum margin requirements for shorting options unlike TD or Schwab (which I think has the "worst" meaning highest margin requirements for shorting options) and their option trades are only about $1/contract compared to nearly $10 for retail brokers like TD or Schwab. Also if you trade stocks on margin their margin interest rates are around 1% compared to around 7% for TD or Schwab.
Just imagine if they offered to lower your pricing for trades down to $1 for stock trades and option trades haha ... if you're an active trader Interactive Brokers is likely to save you significant money plus in my experience their execution on limit orders seems better than Schwab (for example). Fees are here at http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/?f=commission. They also have quantitative portfolio reports (with detailed risk data like Sharpe Ratios, Calmar Ratios, etc.) you can run on your account to generate portfolio performance charts and data.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
AAPL 7-1 split. Last split was 2005.
Shares will be just under $80. Is this a good time to invest in AAPL?
I'm biting the bullet. With the iPhone 6 looming, I think this is a good time to get in.
Shares will be just under $80. Is this a good time to invest in AAPL?
I'm biting the bullet. With the iPhone 6 looming, I think this is a good time to get in.
J
jmoney74
Guest
nice work, apple
They still need a new product here in the next year or so. Not just iphones.. they need to get into TV. Phones are getting to be a commodity.
They still need a new product here in the next year or so. Not just iphones.. they need to get into TV. Phones are getting to be a commodity.
$600 price target seems likely..
Goldman Sachs Research
Commentary: AAPL (Buy, $524.75): 2QFY14 Flash Print Friendly
By Bill Shope, CFA , Cristina Colon, CFA and Justin Price
Published 23 Apr 2014 2:19:29 pm PDT
Summary conclusion: Solid beat on iPhone strength; capital allocation a partial counter to lower guide
Key Takeaways:
Apple reported revenues of $45.65 billion, beating our estimate of $43.88 billion and above consensus of $43.53 billion.
EPS of $11.62 exceeded our estimate of $10.42 and consensus of $10.18. Revenue momentum (particularly in iPhone sales) and margin strength were the primary drivers of the upside.
Other income of $225 million was above our estimate of $200 million, contributing a $0.02 tailwind relative to our model, while the tax rate of 26.0% was relatively in line with our estimate of 26.2%
Gross margin of 39.3% was above our estimate of 38.0% (consensus of 37.6%), while operating margin of 29.8% also exceeded our estimate of 28.0%.
Apple generated $13.5 billion in cash flow from operations in the quarter and returned nearly $21 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
The company also expanded its capital allocation program, and now expects to utilize over $130 billion by the end of calendar 2015. The program includes a $30 billion increase to the share repurchase authorization, to $90 billion, and an 8% increase to the quarterly dividend, now $3.29 per share. Apple plans to increase the dividend on an annual basis.
Apple's board also announced a 7:1 stock split, effective on June 9, 2014.
Guidance:
Apple guided to 3QFY2014 (June quarter) revenues of $36 billion to $38 billion, straddling our forecast of $37.51 billion and consensus of $37.87 billion. Management expects gross margin of 37% to 38% (versus our expectation for 38.3% and Street Account consensus of 37.6%), operating expenses of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion, other income of $200 million, and a tax rate of 26.1%.
Segment highlights:
iPhone shipments of 43.72 million substantially exceeded our estimate of 39.03 million (Street Account consensus of 38.45 million).
iPad shipments of 16.35 million were below our estimate of 18.81 million (Street Account consensus of 19.83 million).
Mac units of 4.14 million exceeded our estimate of 3.93 million (Street Account consensus of 4.08 million).
iPod units of 2.76 million fell short of our forecast of 3.02 million (Street Account consensus of 3.10 million).
iTunes/Software/Services revenues of $4.57 billion were below our estimate of $4.69 billion.
Management commentary:
"We're very proud of our quarterly results, especially our strong iPhone sales and record revenue from services," said Tim Cook, Apple`s CEO. "We're eagerly looking forward to introducing more new products and services that only Apple could bring to market."
Goldman Sachs Research
Commentary: AAPL (Buy, $524.75): 2QFY14 Flash Print Friendly
By Bill Shope, CFA , Cristina Colon, CFA and Justin Price
Published 23 Apr 2014 2:19:29 pm PDT
Summary conclusion: Solid beat on iPhone strength; capital allocation a partial counter to lower guide
Key Takeaways:
Apple reported revenues of $45.65 billion, beating our estimate of $43.88 billion and above consensus of $43.53 billion.
EPS of $11.62 exceeded our estimate of $10.42 and consensus of $10.18. Revenue momentum (particularly in iPhone sales) and margin strength were the primary drivers of the upside.
Other income of $225 million was above our estimate of $200 million, contributing a $0.02 tailwind relative to our model, while the tax rate of 26.0% was relatively in line with our estimate of 26.2%
Gross margin of 39.3% was above our estimate of 38.0% (consensus of 37.6%), while operating margin of 29.8% also exceeded our estimate of 28.0%.
Apple generated $13.5 billion in cash flow from operations in the quarter and returned nearly $21 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
The company also expanded its capital allocation program, and now expects to utilize over $130 billion by the end of calendar 2015. The program includes a $30 billion increase to the share repurchase authorization, to $90 billion, and an 8% increase to the quarterly dividend, now $3.29 per share. Apple plans to increase the dividend on an annual basis.
Apple's board also announced a 7:1 stock split, effective on June 9, 2014.
Guidance:
Apple guided to 3QFY2014 (June quarter) revenues of $36 billion to $38 billion, straddling our forecast of $37.51 billion and consensus of $37.87 billion. Management expects gross margin of 37% to 38% (versus our expectation for 38.3% and Street Account consensus of 37.6%), operating expenses of $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion, other income of $200 million, and a tax rate of 26.1%.
Segment highlights:
iPhone shipments of 43.72 million substantially exceeded our estimate of 39.03 million (Street Account consensus of 38.45 million).
iPad shipments of 16.35 million were below our estimate of 18.81 million (Street Account consensus of 19.83 million).
Mac units of 4.14 million exceeded our estimate of 3.93 million (Street Account consensus of 4.08 million).
iPod units of 2.76 million fell short of our forecast of 3.02 million (Street Account consensus of 3.10 million).
iTunes/Software/Services revenues of $4.57 billion were below our estimate of $4.69 billion.
Management commentary:
"We're very proud of our quarterly results, especially our strong iPhone sales and record revenue from services," said Tim Cook, Apple`s CEO. "We're eagerly looking forward to introducing more new products and services that only Apple could bring to market."
J
jmoney74
Guest
qwerty said:jmoney74 said:
what are TVs
Smart TVs are still very early. The ones that are out are trash in terms of real functional features. Apple can come in and do something special.
AAPL a strong buy by analysts.
Early overnight reports collated by Fortune unsurprisingly show analysts pleased by the higher-than-expected iPhone numbers, with five out of five rating the stock a buy, their price targets ranging from $75 to $252 above yesterday?s closing value. Apple reported iPhone sales of 43.7B against expectations of 38M, and revenue of $45.6M against the consensus estimate of $43.5B.
Katy Huberty, Morgen Stanley: Price target $630
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: Price target $640
Brian Marshall, ISI: Price target $600
Brian White, Cantor Fitzgerald: Price target $777
Peter Misek, Jefferies: Price target $625 ?
http://9to5mac.com/2014/04/24/analysts-respond-to-aapl-earnings-rating-the-stock-a-strong-buy/
Early overnight reports collated by Fortune unsurprisingly show analysts pleased by the higher-than-expected iPhone numbers, with five out of five rating the stock a buy, their price targets ranging from $75 to $252 above yesterday?s closing value. Apple reported iPhone sales of 43.7B against expectations of 38M, and revenue of $45.6M against the consensus estimate of $43.5B.
Katy Huberty, Morgen Stanley: Price target $630
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: Price target $640
Brian Marshall, ISI: Price target $600
Brian White, Cantor Fitzgerald: Price target $777
Peter Misek, Jefferies: Price target $625 ?
http://9to5mac.com/2014/04/24/analysts-respond-to-aapl-earnings-rating-the-stock-a-strong-buy/