When would be next housing Bottom?

irvinehomeowner said:
That savings is from mortgage rates which someone had said sailed.

Where is the OCReg article?
Click to expand...

Whatever makes the monthly payment cheaper, isn?t that what makes it worth to wait? I understand their analysis didn?t predict coming lower rates, but still has something to add on their favor.
 
If you have the Google news app on your phone, try searching for the article and usually you will get a free preview.  That has been my work around.
 
Mety said:
irvinehomeowner said:
That savings is from mortgage rates which someone had said sailed.

Where is the OCReg article?
Click to expand...

Whatever makes the monthly payment cheaper, isn?t that what makes it worth to wait? I understand their analysis didn?t predict coming lower rates, but still has something to add on their favor.
Click to expand...

Exactly.  Because affordability is at the extremes, home prices will be sensitive to interest rates.  In this climate, it does not make sense to discuss home prices independently of rates.
 
There is no housing bottom. Just came out to be an attached condo like Delano from Eastwood is better than a true SFR in Quail Hill in terms of ROI. No driveway, no yard, and no true ownership of the land are all new standards now. But of course, life is not all about ROI so if you got money to buy an SFR, go for it. Enjoy the house. But don't be jealous of people who bought Delano. ;D
 
Mety said:
There is no housing bottom. Just came out to be an attached condo like Delano from Eastwood is better than a true SFR in Quail Hill in terms of ROI. No driveway, no yard, and no true ownership of the land are all new standards now. But of course, life is not all about ROI so if you got money to buy an SFR, go for it. Enjoy the house. But don't be jealous of people who bought Delano. ;D
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Elevator button!!
 
What do you guys think of this take?
SoCal prices would be down in next decade.
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/01/02/prediction-home-values-will-drop-by-25-to-50-in-decade-ahead/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=fb-ocregister&fbclid=IwAR1NIY8-5cBVtD8StLp6x8GiP_9SOt_AFYQNN-yuqIcnKXAT4q9w_g86kS0
 
OCLuvr said:
What do you guys think of this take?
SoCal prices would be down in next decade.
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/01/02/prediction-home-values-will-drop-by-25-to-50-in-decade-ahead/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=fb-ocregister&fbclid=IwAR1NIY8-5cBVtD8StLp6x8GiP_9SOt_AFYQNN-yuqIcnKXAT4q9w_g86kS0
Click to expand...

Sure and I can also write an article that says that the market will be flat or up 25-50% in the next decade and justify it.  The reality is no one knows what the market is going to do, even next year let alone than 10 years from now.  This is what the phrase "take it with a grain of salt" applies especially when it comes from a mortgage broker.  haha
 
No better evidence that he's pulling this out of his arse than this:

3) With the skyrocketing cost of electricity, more than 50% of California homes will become self-contained, never to rely on PG&E, SCE or San Diego Gas and Electric again. It won?t be just solar power. Rather, it will be a new generation of home energy.

Is he suggesting a fair percentage of us will be installing Mr. Fusions to power our homes?  And within 10 years no less. 
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
OCLuvr said:
What do you guys think of this take?
SoCal prices would be down in next decade.
https://www.ocregister.com/2020/01/02/prediction-home-values-will-drop-by-25-to-50-in-decade-ahead/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=fb-ocregister&fbclid=IwAR1NIY8-5cBVtD8StLp6x8GiP_9SOt_AFYQNN-yuqIcnKXAT4q9w_g86kS0
Click to expand...

Sure and I can also write an article that says that the market will be flat or up 25-50% in the next decade and justify it.  The reality is no one knows what the market is going to do, even next year let alone than 10 years from now.  This is what the phrase "take it with a grain of salt" applies especially when it comes from a mortgage broker.  haha
Click to expand...

My OC Reg workaround is no longer working.  What was the crux of his argument?
 
what bottom, if anything the quarter before was slow but it was also traditionally slow. old neighborhoods have blown up this quarter. there is very little inventory in places like woodbridge, westpark, ranch, deerfield that doesn't back to a main street. even those comes have been setting records.
 
shahshah said:
what bottom, if anything the quarter before was slow but it was also traditionally slow. old neighborhoods have blown up this quarter. there is very little inventory in places like woodbridge, westpark, ranch, deerfield that doesn't back to a main street. even those comes have been setting records.
Click to expand...

Money has rotated from housing to stocks.
 
daedalus said:
No better evidence that he's pulling this out of his arse than this:

3) With the skyrocketing cost of electricity, more than 50% of California homes will become self-contained, never to rely on PG&E, SCE or San Diego Gas and Electric again. It won?t be just solar power. Rather, it will be a new generation of home energy.

Is he suggesting a fair percentage of us will be installing Mr. Fusions to power our homes?  And within 10 years no less. 
Click to expand...


I donno how they came up with the 50% figure.  At current rate we won't reach the 50% any time soon.  Also building ZNE homes and actually achieving ZNE status are two different things.

Residential energy consumption is a big wildcard.  Someone who is away working all day, comes home and sleeps early will consume far less energy vs family with teenagers that stay up late gaming on their overclocked PC's.  Or grandma who stays home and watch Korean drama on 60" TV all day with AC or Heater running.
 
Mety said:
irvinehomeowner said:
That savings is from mortgage rates which someone had said sailed.

Where is the OCReg article?
Click to expand...

Whatever makes the monthly payment cheaper, isn?t that what makes it worth to wait? I understand their analysis didn?t predict coming lower rates, but still has something to add on their favor.
Click to expand...

I realized I missed this.

The problem here is you can't use lower interest rates for both sides of your argument.

When interest rates went lower, the slowdowners said "Well... if it wasn't for lower interest rates, the prices would have dropped more". Then, they also said "Well... because of lower interest rates, you save more money".

The question here is if you combine the lower rate with the not so lower prices... was the savings more than the *seasonal* drops that occur every year? Whether or not that savings was worth putting off a purchase is highly dependent on the situation of the buyer (which was always my caveat).

Even now, in the middle of a pandemic, while demand is low, prices are slightly higher than this same time last year. With what is going on, many would expect Irvine prices to tank in the next few months but I wouldn't be surprised if prices don't drop as dramatically as people would hope.

As I've said before, it would take a huge economic crisis for prices in Irvine to crater... and that is here. But no one predicted coronavirus... or 2020... and now that it's upon us... what are we looking at? 20% drop? 50% drop?

Everyone whip their crystal balls out and get their Nostradamus picks in!
 
The home sales will be down but I'm going to guess the home price probably will not change much.  It's so hard to predict right now, so many variables.

The things is that the demand will drop but the inventory might drop even more. 

The existing home inventory will be down due to sellers postponed, take home off the market.  If the demands still there and job loss are relative minor,  tight inventory plus low interest rates will support the home prices.

The new build's existing inventories here in Irvine are the black sheep house market right now.  I can see significantly discount coming from the builders (except IP, IP don't discount, not even during the last downturn) and lower the average home prices. 

However, after these builders clear out the existing new home inventories, if the housing market continues to deteriorate, they will stop building.  And there will be no new build inventory or very low inventory, that will also support the prices.

 
I think it would be odd to have a DEPRESSION and no drop in housing prices.  Zillow shows Irvine median home price was down -5% YoY in March.

More optimistically, Redfin shows PPSF was down for more than year from Feb 19 - Feb 20, but was actually up in March 2020!  As the market deep freeze that began in mid-March starts showing up in April sales numbers, I wouldn't expect this anomalous price gain to continue.

tic, tic, tic, tic....

1f0V.gif


 
[size=12pt]Irvine housing expert and celebrity blogger, Larry Roberts, has released his March report:
________________________________________________________________________________

  ~On a PPSF basis, Irvine is DOWN -0.8% yoy and has been DOWN consistently for the past 10 months.

  ~All zip codes in Irvine are DOWN, except for one: 92612.

  ~Orange County as a whole is UP.

  ~The cities of Anaheim, Santa Ana, Stanton, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Orange, and Fountain Valley are all UP.  This destroys the myth that Irvine is last to decline in a housing downturn. This time Irvine is leading the way!!  Don't believe any REALTORS or Irvine housing shills that say otherwise.

  ~The last two times that Irvine's PPSF went negative signaled the start of major recessions that did SEVERE damage to Irvine home prices.  Those years were 1990 and 2007.  Don't expect this downturn to be different!!  (See attached.)[/size]

https://ochousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/New-OC-Irvine-April-2020-Market-Report-OCHN.pdf
 

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