What's going into escrow - Irvine and maybe some Tustin too

from that chart, it looks as if Dallas has been roughly at inflation, so about CS=120. that means that Irvine has only ~30% more to fall!
 
I believe CS indices are already inflation-adjusted. For a market to match inflation, its curve would be a straight horizontal line. LA has about 45% to fall from current prices to reach "par" value. Irvine would probably have to fall a little more than LA.
 
[quote author="Daedalus" date=1229932394]I believe CS indices are already inflation-adjusted. For a market to match inflation, its curve would be a straight horizontal line. LA has about 45% to fall from current prices to reach "par" value. Irvine would probably have to fall a little more than LA.</blockquote>


Nope, Case-Shiller indexes are in nominal, not real dollars. Here it the CPI-adjusted Case-Shiller for the LA/OC MSA through September 2008:



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/casecpi0908.jpg" alt="" />



To get back to zero, i.e. home price appreciation = CPI, it would mean prices need to head down another 35%. This is based on prices and CPI from Jan 1987 forward.
 
All I know is that prices have to fall another 20% before I could comfortably buy a place. :down: And I'm assuming I'll still have a job. Anybody think prices will drop like that in the spring?
 
December closing prices are back to flat with November essentially, propped up by a large number of Woodbury resales.



The CS index for non-WB homes in December is 197. WB places are reselling at 2005 prices with a median CS index of 236.
 
<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">December closing prices</a> for Irvine are now UP over 1% vs. November and running at the same level as September.
 
OC overall is going up.



<a href="http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine">http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine</a>
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1230515940]<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">December closing prices</a> for Irvine are now UP over 1% vs. November and running at the same level as September.</blockquote>


Whatdya mean, Ipop? I'm looking at the chart and it shows the median price being less than September by ten grand.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1230536981]OC overall is going up.



<a href="http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine">http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine</a></blockquote>


Nice try. Those are asking prices, not closing prices. Let us know if and when those homes close, then we can start discussing whether or not they are going up. Until then it is just wishful thinking.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1230543814][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1230515940]<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf">December closing prices</a> for Irvine are now UP over 1% vs. November and running at the same level as September.</blockquote>


Whatdya mean, Ipop? I'm looking at the chart and it shows the median price being less than September by ten grand.</blockquote>


The median is an imperfect measure of price. The fluctuations in median sales prices on such a small sample could be related to a number of factors.



The CS index, which my tracking is geared toward, is a much better measure of price changes. It's showing December prices at just a smidge less than September's right now...



Added ten more escrows that started over the past week or so. Also, added a few more closings.



Ten - I assume you didn't take down 2 Malibu? Wanna guess at closing price?
 
Wow, wow, legend of the FCB strikes!



Someone just paid 10% off bubble peak to purchase a Columbus Grove place on Water Lily (38) which backs up the the wash right across from the Waste Management place. Unbelievable... 600-700ft away from trash and they dropped $292 per sf. 1000sf more sold in VoC (Westbourne on Sonora) in a better location for only $90K more just a few weeks ago. Friggin' idiots.
 
I found an interesting chart for Ventura County on another site. I'm wondering how hard it would be to make something similar for Irvine/OC.



What I find most interesting is the strong tendency of buyers to cluster at underwriting boundaries. There is one group at 3.5% FHA downpayments. Another at 10%, probably due to underwriting guidelines. Then, there is another group at 20% down.

<img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_4ZgohmRDQmI/SVSWCJtkICI/AAAAAAAAARE/-SJIxeCdhz8/s1600-h/Sept2008CVLTV.jpg" alt="" />



The site gives a bit more background,http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2008/12/september-2008-ventura-county-ltv-chart.html
 
Actually, it's this image I was trying to link to

<img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_4ZgohmRDQmI/SVSWCJtkICI/AAAAAAAAARE/-SJIxeCdhz8/s400/Sept2008CVLTV.jpg" alt="" />
 
I will be curious to see what these numbers look like at the end of Q1:



<img src="http://www.ipoplaya.com/csq4.jpg" alt="" />



My data is not sufficient to develop this for earlier quarters...
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1231408811]is this for the whole irvine market, including the low-end condos?



mean or median prices for the quarts?



quarts of cs or price?</blockquote>


1200sf and up in Irvine, which is what I have been tracking since September.



Quarts are based off sales prices and the price indicated are the medians for the quarts.
 
Your closing price list shows 3671 Claremont in Westpark as sold as of 12/23/08 at $591,000 but it's back on the market as a short sale for $625,000. What's up with that?
 
[quote author="nefron" date=1231512264]Your closing price list shows 3671 Claremont in Westpark as sold as of 12/23/08 at $591,000 but it's back on the market as a short sale for $625,000. What's up with that?</blockquote>


I noticed it coming back on to the market. Didn't realize it was showing up as a short... I thought maybe a realtor bought it to try and make a quick and very small buck. The old MLS listing definitely shows as a "closed sale". Deuce would need to check title history to know the true deal on that place.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1231512711][quote author="nefron" date=1231512264]Your closing price list shows 3671 Claremont in Westpark as sold as of 12/23/08 at $591,000 but it's back on the market as a short sale for $625,000. What's up with that?</blockquote>


I noticed it coming back on to the market. Didn't realize it was showing up as a short... I thought maybe a realtor bought it to try and make a quick and very small buck. The old MLS listing definitely shows as a "closed sale". Deuce would need to check title history to know the true deal on that place.</blockquote>


This was not sold. Fell out of escrow and changed agents. User error on the part of the brokerage.

FWIW, notes state that the bank has approved the short sale at list price, so this would fall under the "pre-approved" short sale listings.



Good luck,

-IR2
 
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