What happened to the "Gold and the Dollar" thread?

You mean, when you are pointing that thing at me and robbing me, I cannot buy my way out of trouble by bribing you with a ton of gold (worth $10K an ounce)?  :p

qwerty said:
when the global economy goes into the shitter this will be the only thing of real value, not gold or dollars.

super_shorty_870.jpg
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irvinehusky said:
You mean, when you are pointing that thing at me and robbing me, I cannot buy my way out of trouble by bribing you with a ton of gold (worth $10K an ounce)?  :p

qwerty said:
when the global economy goes into the shitter this will be the only thing of real value, not gold or dollars.

super_shorty_870.jpg
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Why would I settle for a bribe when I'm already going to take everything u got?

 
irvinehusky said:
I don't have a PhD in Economics from Harvard, you know.  Oh wait, those guys can't predict the market any better than I can.  They just change their minds more often and act like they know something.  :p
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Or make bets they don't win and then take their ball and go to CDM.  :-X
 
Baby Irvine said:
Trojan man...

I gave you my definition of "independently wealthy" several times already on TI .... Why you asking me again?

Panda's rule #1 A man should have enough money to never have to work again, if that's his choice.

Panda's rule #2 A man should have investments, a pension, or a trust fund that can provide them with twice the level of their country's median household income over a lifetime.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median household income in 2009 was $50,221. Based on Panda's definition of wealth, If an American investment can annually generate twice that amount ($100,442 or more) without working, that that person is independently wealthy.
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So roughly $2.5 Million dollars or a  California Firefighters spiked pension.
 
I tend to think that this is a major correction before heading higher.  If I did not think so, I would have sold.  Sometimes I change my mind when I see an investment, speculation, or holding strategy is not working, but I have not changed my mind yet on precious metals because the reasons I bought in the first place are becoming more evident and have only reinforced my thinking.

Hearing that your mom's friends are buying is a bit troublesome.  It would be wonderful to have a real quantitative analysis on who is buying and why.  And of course, it is not different this time.  The rally time in 71-80 is not my measuring stick for same vs different.  The history of money is my timeline, and my measuring stick is the history of fiat currencies, government spending, and currency devaluation.  Is our currency, central bank, and government debt different this time?

I doubt it.

When you say, "everyone hates the dollar and loves gold", who are you referring to, and in what amounts?  The last I checked, only a miniscule amount of the world's money, especially dollars, is held in gold, and other precious metals.  In the past I would look at the weekly report of the Comex gold traders.  It shows the buillion banks and speculators short to long ratio, and is usually a good indication of the future short term direction.  I would post it here, but I am getting so senile I can't even remember what it is exactly called, let alone remember where to find it.

Funny you should mention your mom.  Every now and then, my mom will call me in a panic and ask if it is time to sell.  I have been seriously wondering if those calls are not an indication to buy.  (No, she has not made one of those calls to me lately.)  ;)  And I totally agree that buying something now because it has gone up in dollar terms in the past is a losing strategy.

BTW, I do not consider the buying of Barclay's gold ETF a purchase of gold and I think eventually the owners of that ETF will be the holders of very little.


Baby Irvine said:
Awgee,
You really think that this is major correction in gold wiping out the weak hands before heading much higher to $5000 - $10,000 an ounce?... I mean.. my momma was asking me how she can buy more gold for the past 6 months. I asked her why... she told me all her church friends were telling to buy gold because it went up 600% since 2001... I'm like mom.. mom.... you don't want to buy something that has already gone up 600%.. you want to buy something that will go up 600% in the future.  >:D

Last gold rally lasted 9 years from 1971 - 1980. Why do you think it is different this time that this rally will go on for 20 years? I've been studying dollar chart from 1970 - 2013... and I think we may in for a dollar rally as everyone hates the dollar and loves gold.



awgeecdcrez said:
irvinehusky said:
BTW she just became a little poor in last two days..
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I doubt if she would know what you are talking about, and if she did, she would disagree.  She does not measure her wealth in dollars, and probably only somewhat measures it in Rupees.  She measures her wealth in grams of gold, and she has as much today as she did two days ago.  To her, and most who own physical gold, gold is neither an investment nor a speculation.  It is wealth preservation.
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jayl23 said:
Better make sure you got plenty of:http://huntsmanslodge.com/images/ammo.jpg
Good luck trying to buy any these days...
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Shotgun ammo is still plentiful at the Irvine Walmart.  On the list of firearms that are more likely to get banned, 5.56 and 7.62 are probably near the top, versus .22, shotguns, and muzzle-loaders & black powder weapons are near the bottom of the list.  I don't think there will a panic buy on shotgun shells right now.

For those on limited budget, for the price of an AR style rifle you can buy a shotgun at local sporting store plus 12 months of emergency food in #10 cans from Costco.  The #10 can products have 25 year shelf life and will keep better versus the bucket + pouch type.  I'm actually not familiar with the Costco "Thrive" brand, but will say that Mountain House brand #10 cans are good and can be edible with room temperature water added, versus some other brands require hot water.  You have to consider in emergency situations, where and how are you going to get hot water.

Other things to consider, calorie count per serving and storage conditions.  The popular (and cheap) bucket + pouch type emergency food at Walmart web site claims 20 year shelf life, but that's at 60F storage temperature.  At 70F the shelf life goes down to 10 years.  How hot does it get here in CA?  Those emergency food buckets are still good to keep at your work/office and car with a backpack (in case if you need to bug out), just remember to replace them every 5 years.  Also, don't forget to store water and water filters.

After a major natural (or man made) disaster, the government relief agencies are likely to be overwhelmed and unable to provide immediate assistance.  IMO responsible citizens should store at least 30 days worth of emergency supplies (food, water, medicine, emergency portable toilet + lots of plastic bags, sufficient firepower and ammo to deter looters, etc.).  A shiny rifle with an expensive scope might look good, but you can't eat it when you're hungry.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lc2q_ibcxuU[/youtube]
 
Irvinecommuter said:
I have to say that I am woefully ill-prepared for disasters...heck we don't even have much cash on hand on any given day. 
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It's recommended that you keep a stash of $1's and $5's.  After a natural disaster, it's assumed that many merchants would be unable to provide change, and ATM's & electronic payment systems will be knocked out.  However, I'd also point out that our local market shelves do not store sufficient inventory for such a scenario.  Very quickly, the food would be purchased (or looted) clean.  You might have money, gold, or ammo, but there would be no food to buy, trade/barter at the stores.

If you have a yard you could plant your own food, but you can't cook without gas, electricity, propane, or firewood.  If water service is interrupted, you won't have water at the house either, other than what you can get from your toilet reserve and water heater tank.  On the up side, the weather in Southern CA allows the use the solar cookers on sunny days, which is good for cooking and sterilizing water.  I'm currently looking into this one:
http://www.survivalresources.com/Articles/Hot_Pot.htmlhttp://www.solarcooker-at-cantinawest.com/hotpot-solar-cookers.html

Comes with cooking pot included.  ^_^;;
 
Interesting comments by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts:

People ask me how I know that the Fed is rigging the bullion price and seem surprised that
anyone would think the Fed and its bullion bank agents would do such a thing, despite the
public knowledge that the Fed is rigging the bond market and the banks with the Fed?s
knowledge rigged the Libor rate. The answer is that the circumstantial evidence is powerful.

Consider the 500 tons of paper gold sold on Friday. Begin with the question, how many ounces
is 500 tons? There are 2,000 pounds to one ton. 500 tons equal 1,000,000 pounds. There are 16
ounces to one pound, which comes to 16 million ounces of short sales on Friday.

Who has 16 million ounces of gold? At the beginning gold price that day of about $1,550, that
comes to $24,800,000,000. Who has that kind of money?

What happens when 500 tons of gold sales are dumped on the market at one time or on one
day? Correct, it drives the price down. Investors who want to get out of large positions would
spread sales out over time so as not to lower their sales proceeds.
The sale took gold down by about $73 per ounce. That means the seller or sellers lost up to
$73 dollars 16 million times, or $1,168,000,000.

Who can afford to lose that kind of money? Only a central bank that can print it....
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Here's another reminder to check shelf life by temperature.  This chart shows the shelf life of MRE (Meal Ready to Eat):

mre-shelf-life-chart.jpg


So if the manufacturer of the civilian MRE advertise "up to 5 year shelf life", it means 5 years at 50 F.  For us in Southern CA, probably 3 years.


 
Momo, as much of a foodie connoisseur as you are, I'm surprised you can envision a zombie apocalypse future of subsisting on MREs!  :)

I am about to pull the trigger on a pallet of Costco Shelf Reliance emergency food.  I'll put half under the house, half in the garage, and hope "the big one" doesn't level both.
 
daedalus said:
Momo, as much of a foodie connoisseur as you are, I'm surprised you can envision a zombie apocalypse future of subsisting on MREs!  :)
I am about to pull the trigger on a pallet of Costco Shelf Reliance emergency food.  I'll put half under the house, half in the garage, and hope "the big one" doesn't level both.
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I actually don't recommend MRE's as your primary food storage, due to their short shelf life.  If anyone happen to see MRE's for sale on internet, please verify that they are not the property of US government.  As for taste, if you check the reviews on Amazon.com and other sources, you'd find that Mountain House products tend to be rated higher in taste/flavor versus others, but cost considerably more.

IMO there is a place for MRE or pouch style emergency food.  They're lighter and easier to transport, so it's good for putting into a backpack, along with a water filter bottle, at your workplace and in your car.  If you need to bug out on foot, it'd be difficult to carry #10 cans with you.  For home long-term storage, I still recommend #10 can products with 25 year shelf life.  But for those on a budget, I think to start with the inexpensive Costco emergency food buckets is fine, just remember to replace them after 5 years.

In terms of price per serving, #10 cans will cost much more than pouch type.  On Costco website, the food buckets is 29 cents per serving (assorted) versus #10 cans (Thrive) is 83 cents per serving.  If you buy the premium Mountain House brand 20 oz can Beef Stroganoff with Noodles (not from Costco), it's 10 servings for $30.

Going back to the Gold discussion, I think it's prudent to keep a small % of your assets in gold, but that's about it.  I'd rather put more money in cash flow positive RE.  IMO a good investment is one that makes a profit from the first rent check, and gold doesn't generate interest income or rent checks.  Gold is very valuable in chaotic situations, such as the Chinese Civil War and Vietnam War, where local currency's value was destroyed by hyperinflation and you need to use gold to buy passage out of the country.


 
I'm with momo... invest in something that appreciates AND has cash flow... I can't rent out bars of gold.

And I do understand the preservation of wealth and while I do not foresee a Zompocalypse in my lifetime, if one does happen... almost everything that's not life preserving becomes worthless (you can't eat/drink a peso or gold).
 
Agreed, productive assets are good places to invest.  Gold/silver/diamonds are basically for insurance, something really nice and shiny to look at and show off, and then perhaps as a perpetual put option on the dollar.
 
Omg :) for the first time .... i am proud of iho. I get believe these words came out of your mouth.

Such financial wisdom..

irvinehomeowner said:
I'm with momo... invest in something that appreciates AND has cash flow... I can't rent out bars of gold.

And I do understand the preservation of wealth and while I do not foresee a Zompocalypse in my lifetime, if one does happen... almost everything that's not life preserving becomes worthless (you can't eat/drink a peso or gold).
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