Villages of Columbus - Columbus Square - Verandas

[quote author="optimusprime" date=1246070875]So a nice 2200 sq ft Verandas Unit runs for $599k? (I saw one listing on Redfin... I assume this is it. <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1419-Georgia-St-92782/home/12257533">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1419-Georgia-St-92782/home/12257533</a>



Any chance a similar unit of $599k will drop another 10-15% in the 12-16 months?</blockquote>


That home is brand new and still being built. I'm guessing that the builder is trying to sell a home that fell out of escrow? I think that within 12-16 months, all of the Verandas will be built out. That means only resales or foreclosed homes will be for sale.
 
this one is a resale but also a short sale .... ( a Plan 3)



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531</a>



the listing price is lower than the current "new" home price.
 
[quote author="hehegrl" date=1246337831]this one is a resale but also a short sale .... ( a Plan 3)



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531</a>



the listing price is lower than the current "new" home price.</blockquote>


If you account for the $25k incentive, a new build of Plan 3 would be cheaper. Crazy how it's a short sale after only a year. What were the buyers thinking?
 
[quote author="hehegrl" date=1246337831]this one is a resale but also a short sale .... ( a Plan 3)



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531</a>



the listing price is lower than the current "new" home price.</blockquote>
Are you that surprised?
 
[quote author="JVNA" date=1246400920][quote author="hehegrl" date=1246337831]this one is a resale but also a short sale .... ( a Plan 3)



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531</a>



the listing price is lower than the current "new" home price.</blockquote>


If you account for the $25k incentive, a new build of Plan 3 would be cheaper. Crazy how it's a short sale after only a year. What were the buyers thinking?</blockquote>
They weren't, they were too busy drinking kool-aid.
 
[quote author="JVNA" date=1246400920]

If you account for the $25k incentive, a new build of Plan 3 would be cheaper. Crazy how it's a short sale after only a year. What were the buyers thinking?</blockquote>


where did you hear it was $25K? I was told it was $20K
 
[quote author="sad.machine" date=1246429126][quote author="JVNA" date=1246400920]

If you account for the $25k incentive, a new build of Plan 3 would be cheaper. Crazy how it's a short sale after only a year. What were the buyers thinking?</blockquote>


where did you hear it was $25K? I was told it was $20K</blockquote>


You're right, I believe it was $20k.
 
o well. im screwed anyways. according to the economic forecaster i follow, housing and the stock market are on the verge of being brought to their knees by massive deflation.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1246402546][quote author="JVNA" date=1246400920][quote author="hehegrl" date=1246337831]this one is a resale but also a short sale .... ( a Plan 3)



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/1447-Madison-St-92782/home/12257531</a>



the listing price is lower than the current "new" home price.</blockquote>


If you account for the $25k incentive, a new build of Plan 3 would be cheaper. Crazy how it's a short sale after only a year. What were the buyers thinking?</blockquote>
They weren't, they were too busy drinking kool-aid.</blockquote>


Interesting - they upgraded the window coverings to shutters, but kept the white laminate cupboards and white tile in the kitchen.
 
Has anyone been to the sales office recently? They are building a lot of homes on a new lot in the Verandas development. I mean, they're not building 4-6 homes and waiting to sell those; they're building dozens. It looks like they may be trying to complete an entire new block with homes. They must have some indication that they'll be able to sell them.
 
[quote author="Perspective" date=1248924277]Has anyone been to the sales office recently? They are building a lot of homes on a new lot in the Verandas development. I mean, they're not building 4-6 homes and waiting to sell those; they're building dozens. It looks like they may be trying to complete an entire new block with homes. They must have some indication that they'll be able to sell them.</blockquote>


Per the sales person at verandas they got buyers for all those homes you see being built.
 
[quote author="Perspective" date=1248924277]They must have some indication that they'll be able to sell them.</blockquote>


They don't start construction unless it's sold.
 
Checked out Verandas today, they are down to their final two homes and that is it. They even closed down the model for residence one since they are all sold out of that plan. They have one plan 2 left, which is 2,211 sq ft and one plan three left, which is 2,394 square ft. The plan 2 is $612,000 (about $277/sq. ft) and the plan 3 is asking $632,000 (about $264 sq/ft), they are offering a 10K incentive if you use their own lender. These final two homes will be built where the parking lot for the sales office is at. They said the property taxes is 1.2% + .6% for mello roos for a total of about 1.8% (the final % will vary based on your sales price). The HOA is $140 right now but will drop to $110 when its all built out. These final two homes will be available for move in in February of 2010. The sales lady said they were pretty firm on the price since they were down to their last two homes.



We are tempted to buy one of the last two homes, if we decided to buy one, we would probably go with plan 3, even though we like the layout of the plan 2 better. I figure when its time to move on it will be easier to sell a four bedroom home vs a three bedroom + loft. If I could get the plan three for 600K + 25K to use in incentives I would definitely pull the trigger. I think mentally i could live with a 10% price drop in the future, but more than that would probably affect my mental well being.



Anyone care to say what they think these homes will sell for in the future resale market?
 
For what it's worth Qwerty my parents bought a model house across from the club house for about $250 sq ft last October. We were considering a Verandas but didn't want to spend quite that much. At under $275 a sq ft its not bad and yes in my talks with Irvine Renter I think we're in agreement that Columbus Square is closer to the bottom than the top. Could it see a 10% decline? Sure, but just something to think of. Using the IHB Calculator at $600k and 5.1% 30 year fixed with HOA and Mella Roos you'd be looking at ~$2500 after tax savings approximately. Those would rent for more than $2500, especially the four bedroom. Probably $2800 so yes it's right around rental parity.
 
I believe IR was talking about the Columbus Grove, not Columbus Square in regards to being close to the bottom. Columbus Square is not in Irvine School District, FYI.
 
I don't like the IHB calculator... here is what I have... $600k, 20% down - $120k, 5.1%, 30 Year fix; your mortgage alone is $2606... Total Taxes, 1.8% - approx 900/month, HOA $140, not including insurance, maintenance.. youre looking at approx: $3,646.16,,, not including tax savings... I say a little far from rental parity...
 
[quote author="roundcorners" date=1249969144]I don't like the IHB calculator... here is what I have... $600k, 20% down - $120k, 5.1%, 30 Year fix; your mortgage alone is $2606... Total Taxes, 1.8% - approx 900/month, HOA $140, not including insurance, maintenance.. youre looking at approx: $3,646.16,,, not including tax savings... I say a little far from rental parity...</blockquote>


Im not even sure you can get 2,800 for these places - maybe you can, im not familiar with rental prices in columbus square (or other homes in the same school district). I figure if you can afford 2,800 for a rental payment, you can just rent in irvine and send your kids to good schools.
 
[quote author="roundcorners" date=1249969144]I don't like the IHB calculator... here is what I have... $600k, 20% down - $120k, 5.1%, 30 Year fix; your mortgage alone is $2606... Total Taxes, 1.8% - approx 900/month, HOA $140, not including insurance, maintenance.. youre looking at approx: $3,646.16,,, not including tax savings... I say a little far from rental parity...</blockquote>


~$2000 of $2606 will be interest payment for first few years, $900 in taxes + $2000 in interest are tax deductible, so you're saving ~ $1000 in taxes. That should bring it rental parity if the place can really be rented for $2800. Tax savings are very significant and you cannot ignore it. If this were an investment property, then you'd be losing ~$800 a month (ignoring depreciation and no passive income to offset it), but you'd also be technically building equity of ~$500 a month - that seems like break-even too. But again I won't rent the place for 2800, and I doubt if anyone else will.
 
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