The Meadows, Lake Forest by Toll Brothers

[Mety]

Thanks everyone for the input - definitely a lot to consider!

For what it's worth, I've been checking Google Maps every day for a few weeks now to see what the commute would be like when leaving Irvine/LF at 5:45AM and going back from PV at 2:00PM and it has consistently been around 1 hour and 5-25 minutes. I'm sure that traffic now is lighter than it used to be, but I feel like it's at least back to 75-80% of what it used to be. 3-4 hours of total commute is still pretty bad but maybe I'm just used to traffic in CA and don't mind it as much lol. It's definitely a tradeoff everyone has to consider in terms of what works best/makes sense; now if it were a 5+ hour commute, then that would be unbearable. I'd be surprised if traffic right now is only half of what it was pre-COVID!

We'll expand our search to the LA area and see if anything in the suggested areas look attractive just in case too.

Another option is you can commute with Amtrak or Metro. You don't have to worry about traffics then. Amtrak has wifi also if I remember correctly. Not sure if train will get you right by where you would commute to, but something to think about as an option.

 

[trematix]

@Asumis,

Unlike everyone here, I recommend you stick with your original plan at Fresco @ EW. You'll appreciate it much more than other potential nearby areas. One of EW's biggest pros is its location. It's close to plazas, parks and everything else you would need especially if you have kids.

Everything else meaning the trailer park right across the street!  And the landfill on the other side! 

[quote author=Mety]
Freeway is also close, but not too close to question any risks of vehicle pollution hazards. Some people don't like its location comparing to older towns, but for new constructions in Irvine, this is the best location IMHO. Also you'll enjoy its appreciation over the years. Just look at how phase 1 buyers at EW are enjoying almost up to a half million dollars price increase in just 2-3 years.

The reason Eastwood went up in value is simply because The Irvine Company pumped insane marketing money into promoting it to the mainlanders. 

It's the same reason why certain neighborhoods in the Great Park sold out super fast and yet have barely appreciated beyond the last phase.  Marketing money makes things fly off the shelves when they're selling new houses, that has very little correlation to how much something will appreciate after the marketing money goes away.
[/quote]

I think youre way off. I dont live in GP but all the homes that have sold recently in Altair, Cadence, Pavilion, Beacon etc have made very healthy returns.

 

[sleepy5136]

@Asumis,

Unlike everyone here, I recommend you stick with your original plan at Fresco @ EW. You'll appreciate it much more than other potential nearby areas. One of EW's biggest pros is its location. It's close to plazas, parks and everything else you would need especially if you have kids.

Everything else meaning the trailer park right across the street!  And the landfill on the other side! 

[quote author=Mety]
Freeway is also close, but not too close to question any risks of vehicle pollution hazards. Some people don't like its location comparing to older towns, but for new constructions in Irvine, this is the best location IMHO. Also you'll enjoy its appreciation over the years. Just look at how phase 1 buyers at EW are enjoying almost up to a half million dollars price increase in just 2-3 years.

The reason Eastwood went up in value is simply because The Irvine Company pumped insane marketing money into promoting it to the mainlanders. 

It's the same reason why certain neighborhoods in the Great Park sold out super fast and yet have barely appreciated beyond the last phase.  Marketing money makes things fly off the shelves when they're selling new houses, that has very little correlation to how much something will appreciate after the marketing money goes away.

I think youre way off. I dont live in GP but all the homes that have sold recently in Altair, Cadence, Pavilion, Beacon etc have made very healthy returns.
[/quote]
Depending on when they sold and how much they made from it, the gains are only offsetting the high MR that they paid for however long they lived there.

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

I think youre way off. I dont live in GP but all the homes that have sold recently in Altair, Cadence, Pavilion, Beacon etc have made very healthy returns.

well, Altair looks hot for whatever reason, I dunno, If I have a 5,000 sq ft house I don't want it to feel like a IPAC detached condo complex and some of those altair homes are SQUEEEEZED in. 

I looked at just a handful of Cadence/Beacon park homes, yeah some of them made 300k over 5 years but you factor in sale costs (100k?) + melloo roos (100k?) and you aren't talking that great of returns.

 

[eddieuclabruin]

Welp, looks like Toll Brothers adjusted their pricing and raised the price by about $200k across the board. The entry point for this community is now $1.2 million at the Willows (it was listed as "From the $1 Millions" a few weeks ago.)

 

[sleepy5136]

Welp, looks like Toll Brothers adjusted their pricing and raised the price by about $200k across the board. The entry point for this community is now $1.2 million at the Willows (it was listed as "From the $1 Millions" a few weeks ago.)

WOW! The lots there are honestly horrible for willows/oaks, near a highway, and no views. I can foresee this not selling well at all. Especially considering the homes will not complete until late 2022 for phase 1. Interest rates will go up by then too. It doesn't matter at this point if its toll brothers.

 

[CogNeuroSci]

Welp, looks like Toll Brothers adjusted their pricing and raised the price by about $200k across the board. The entry point for this community is now $1.2 million at the Willows (it was listed as "From the $1 Millions" a few weeks ago.)

WOW! The lots there are honestly horrible for willows/oaks, near a highway, and no views. I can foresee this not selling well at all. Especially considering the homes will not complete until late 2022 for phase 1. Interest rates will go up by then too. It doesn't matter at this point if its toll brothers.

The Meadows is going to sell fast and with no problems at all.

 

[sleepy5136]

Welp, looks like Toll Brothers adjusted their pricing and raised the price by about $200k across the board. The entry point for this community is now $1.2 million at the Willows (it was listed as "From the $1 Millions" a few weeks ago.)

WOW! The lots there are honestly horrible for willows/oaks, near a highway, and no views. I can foresee this not selling well at all. Especially considering the homes will not complete until late 2022 for phase 1. Interest rates will go up by then too. It doesn't matter at this point if its toll brothers.

The Meadows is going to sell fast and with no problems at all.

You may be right. I hope you?re wrong.

 

[cupcakezzz]

I?m considering the Meadows, but with the prices going up so much, is it better (in terms of pricing and amenities) to just wait and save up for Cira at The Landing in Tustin Legacy? We looked at Amara at SS, but the prices are now $1.3mil and I also heard there?s a bidding war going on now from the other thread. We also didn?t really like the area much.

I know there?s MR in Tustin, but the location is the pro for us. We currently live in BR and hate the drive to and on the 5 freeway. BR was chosen because it was new and close to my work, but we?re both working from home now, so that is moot.

Since there?s not much info for Cira, is the market in that area better than LF? Looks like the houses in Tustin and LF are slowly catching up to Irvine. Any chance it?ll go for less than the Meadows?  ;D Just wanted to know what the thoughts are regarding Cira from the more experienced people. Any and all feedback would be appreciated!

 

[Asumis]

I'm assuming there's crazy demand from the interest list, otherwise such a big price increase all at once seems a bit bold...

What're everyone's thoughts on this now given the price increases? We're still considering it but it's less attractive now. Also curious how this plays out over the long term since it's been the case for awhile that buying in the first few phases is quite good, however, I feel like the market won't be as strong in an year or two when these are actually move-in ready (especially with interest rates rising too). It seems rare for builders to decrease prices but what's their thinking here? Are they going to offer a ton of builder credit for upgrades when the markets cools?

Wondering if it's better to just wait it out and buy in a later phase as opposed to the first few phases now.

 

[ThirtySomethingWEquity]

I'm assuming there's crazy demand from the interest list, otherwise such a big price increase all at once seems a bit bold...

What're everyone's thoughts on this now given the price increases? We're still considering it but it's less attractive now. Also curious how this plays out over the long term since it's been the case for awhile that buying in the first few phases is quite good, however, I feel like the market won't be as strong in an year or two when these are actually move-in ready (especially with interest rates rising too). It seems rare for builders to decrease prices but what's their thinking here? Are they going to offer a ton of builder credit for upgrades when the markets cools?

Wondering if it's better to just wait it out and buy in a later phase as opposed to the first few phases now.

I think you have to see what comes standard.  They may have upped the prices and also decided that everyone is getting premium paint, slider windows, upgraded kitchens, etc.  They may just want to discourage the bare bones investors from buying without any upgrades.  If it turns out you would have spent another 150k anyway just getting some of the basic features you'd want in a premium house, who cares.

If you *still* need 200k more in upgrades to make it even close to a place you'd want to live, then yeah it's probably over priced.

 

[Asumis]

I'm assuming there's crazy demand from the interest list, otherwise such a big price increase all at once seems a bit bold...

What're everyone's thoughts on this now given the price increases? We're still considering it but it's less attractive now. Also curious how this plays out over the long term since it's been the case for awhile that buying in the first few phases is quite good, however, I feel like the market won't be as strong in an year or two when these are actually move-in ready (especially with interest rates rising too). It seems rare for builders to decrease prices but what's their thinking here? Are they going to offer a ton of builder credit for upgrades when the markets cools?

Wondering if it's better to just wait it out and buy in a later phase as opposed to the first few phases now.

I think you have to see what comes standard.  They may have upped the prices and also decided that everyone is getting premium paint, slider windows, upgraded kitchens, etc.  They may just want to discourage the bare bones investors from buying without any upgrades.  If it turns out you would have spent another 150k anyway just getting some of the basic features you'd want in a premium house, who cares.

If you *still* need 200k more in upgrades to make it even close to a place you'd want to live, then yeah it's probably over priced.

That's a great point actually, I never thought about it that way. It makes the price increase much more reasonable if that's the case. We spent about 160K in upgrades on our current TB home so we were definitely planning to spend around that much again if we purchased in the Meadows. Fingers crossed!

 

[sleepy5136]

Don't forget that depending on the amount of upgrades you add to the home, you're paying more in property taxes. So if base price is 1.2m and you add 160k of upgrades, that means you're paying $1760 extra in property taxes. Granted it's a one time premium.

 

[zubs]

In 2018, I thought we would be down around 10% by 2022.
Well it's 4 month to go to 2022, and we are actually 25%+ higher than 2018.

Here are the old posts...I am !miss cleo

https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16533.300.html

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Interesting to go back and read some of our thoughts back then. You were correct, as long as ?goberment?, continue their actions, you are rich my friend.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

In 2018, I thought we would be down around 10% by 2022.
Well it's 4 month to go to 2022, and we are actually 25%+ higher than 2018.

Here are the old posts...I am !miss cleo

https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16533.300.html

Hah... the old "analysis" thread.

Where did meccos12 go? I bet he still owns a place in Irvine and is glad his gloom/doom never came true.

See... if you bought then, even though people said it was slowing down... if you could afford it and are still there to this day... it turned out ok.

That's why I always say timing the market is so difficult and shouldn't be your be all/end all rule... affordability and stability should.

 

[callmehere]

Looks like the price increase is due to options already built into the cost of the home.  They are including $15k in electrical upgrades, $45k in home options and another $40k in other upgrades.  Looks like they are requiring the purchase of a fireplace and fridge...which is over $24k for both options already

 

[Asumis]

Looks like the price increase is due to options already built into the cost of the home.  They are including $15k in electrical upgrades, $45k in home options and another $40k in other upgrades.  Looks like they are requiring the purchase of a fireplace and fridge...which is over $24k for both options already

Phew, that makes me feel better! Curious how you got this information, did they start contacting people based on position in the priority list?

Also, I'm assuming when you say $45K in home options and $40K in other upgrades, we're given a choice as to what to spend it on or did they choose certain options already? If it's like builder's credit then that's nice so hopefully they don't just randomly choose stuff.

 

[callmehere]

Things are chosen already, amounting to the price increase.  Things like extra outlets, speaker system for the main living room, handles etc for the home.  Interesting how the little things just added up to 100k, but it is what it is

 

[usctrojancpa]

Looks like the price increase is due to options already built into the cost of the home.  They are including $15k in electrical upgrades, $45k in home options and another $40k in other upgrades.  Looks like they are requiring the purchase of a fireplace and fridge...which is over $24k for both options already

Where are you seeing this pricing?