Tarriffs/Trade War

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eyephone said:
Trump tariff would make the Toyota Camry $1,800 more expensive to build

Toyota did not say how much of the cost it would pass on to customers. But it called the possible tariff "just a tax on consumers" and said it would "increase the cost of every vehicle sold in the country."
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/28/news/companies/toyota-camry-cost-trump-tariff/index.html
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For those who care, I have recently sold my index tracker funds.  Risk is clearly asymmetric (more downside than upside) .  Market goes up and down day by day depending on who among the crazies (Trump, Navarro, KUdlow) is trying to calm the trade war or stoke it further . 

Risk clearly is asymmetric here, especially with Trump emboldened here after recent Supreme court decisions. 

I have said it before and will say it again -- impact of tarriffs (esp autos) is NOT priced in.  Market right now is discounting that Trump will blink / fold .  If he actually goes through with it , we could easily see a 7-10% correction

If I am wrong, Trump actually does nothing, and charts start showing a bullish pattern again, I have no problem paying up slightly to get back with a lot of the risks behind us.  But right now, not a risk worth taking ...
 
?US tariffs take effect, China warns of 'counterattack'

Washington increased tariffs at 12:01 a.m. on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, a first step in what could become an accelerating series of tariffs.

China's Commerce Ministry said it would be "forced to make a necessary counterattack." It gave no immediate details of possible retaliation but Beijing earlier released a target list of American goods for duty increases including soybeans, electric cars and whiskey.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ya...ays-tariffs-kick-against-china-221658793.html



 
wait, this isn't supposed to happen!

Germany willing to cut tariffs on US cars, lifting automakers? shares

Germany?s chancellor said Thursday she?s willing to back lower tariffs on U.S. auto imports as a potential European Union (EU) concession to the Trump administration ? just one day after CEOs of Germany?s biggest carmakers reportedly voiced support for eliminating such tariffs entirely.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/germany-willing-to-cut-tariffs-on-us-cars-lifting-automakers-shares
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Kings said:
wait, this isn't supposed to happen!

Germany willing to cut tariffs on US cars, lifting automakers? shares

Germany?s chancellor said Thursday she?s willing to back lower tariffs on U.S. auto imports as a potential European Union (EU) concession to the Trump administration ? just one day after CEOs of Germany?s biggest carmakers reportedly voiced support for eliminating such tariffs entirely.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/germany-willing-to-cut-tariffs-on-us-cars-lifting-automakers-shares
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MAGA heads itching to hail hive fives as usual

Does one really think that Chevys and Fords will flood Germany if tariffs are 0% ? 

Do you know that the biggest German imports from the US are BMW and Mercedes SUVs  made here in our country.  this only helps BMW and Mercedes profitability , not the Detroit big 3  !  Now watch what happens w China as that's where the real risks lie ...
 
I'm going to leave this here

DXTDIXEWsAAT4YI.jpg
 
My wife ordered a bowl of Soup at Claim Jumper tonight. 

$8.99 for a bowl of freakin soup.  Crazy town I tell you. 
 
aquabliss said:
My wife ordered a bowl of Soup at Claim Jumper tonight. 

$8.99 for a bowl of freakin soup.  Crazy town I tell you.
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That is absurd. I hope it was Lobster Bisque at that price.
 
?Automaker BMW says it will build more of its popular SUVs overseas to offset the higher cost of sending cars to China due to recently enacted tariffs.

BMW also said it will raise the price of South Carolina-built vehicles sold in China to help offset that country's new 40 percent import tax on cars from the U.S., retaliation for higher tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by President Donald Trump.

The dpa news agency reported that Munich-based BMW said Monday it is "not in a position to completely absorb the tariff increases."
https://www.postandcourier.com/busi...cle_2dab2678-837a-11e8-9b27-3fa07b822913.html

 
?FED: Manufacturers in every corner of America are worried about Trump's tariffs

Manufacturers in all the Federal Reserve's 12 districts are concerned about tariffs.?

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-fed-says-manufacturers-in-all-districts-worried-2018-7



 
Republican Senators: Trump?s Farmer ?Welfare? wont work

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) said the Department of Agriculture?s decision is an acknowledgement of the ?unintended consequences? and ?collateral damage? of Trump?s protectionist policies, while Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) said Trump was creating a ?Soviet type economy.?

?The administration creates a problem for farmers, and now they need to put them on welfare. I think that?s kind of a misplaced policy,? Corker added.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...ican-senators-trumps-farmer-welfare-wont-work

My comment: Dude where?s my hand out? I?m growing some chili in a planter. ;)
 
Signs that China might just back down.


Chinese leadership is facing a rare backlash for its handling of the US trade dispute

A growing trade war with the United States is causing rifts within China's Communist Party, with some critics saying that an overly nationalistic Chinese stance may have hardened the U.S. position, according to four sources close to the government.

President Xi Jinping still has a firm grip on power, but an unusual surge of criticism about economic policy and how the government has handled the trade war has revealed rare cracks in the ruling Communist Party.

A backlash is being felt at the highest levels of the government, possibly hitting a close aide to Xi, his ideology chief and strategist Wang Huning, according to two sources familiar with discussions in leadership circles.

There is a growing feeling within the Chinese government that the outlook for China has "become grim", according to a government policy advisor, following the deterioration in relations between China and the United States over trade. The advisor requested anonymity.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/09/han...causes-rift-in-chinese-leadership-source.html
 
See... as much as we need China because everything is made in China, China needs us because we buy everything made in China.

#symbiosis
#VenomInTheatersOctober5
 
?China slaps retaliatory tariffs on $16 billion of U.S. goods

China struck back Wednesday at the U.S. with $16 billion in retaliatory tariffs, exactly matching President Donald Trump's latest escalation in the ongoing international trade war.?
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/ec...aliatory-tariffs-16-billion-u-s-goods-n898641



lnc said:
Signs that China might just back down.


Chinese leadership is facing a rare backlash for its handling of the US trade dispute

A growing trade war with the United States is causing rifts within China's Communist Party, with some critics saying that an overly nationalistic Chinese stance may have hardened the U.S. position, according to four sources close to the government.

President Xi Jinping still has a firm grip on power, but an unusual surge of criticism about economic policy and how the government has handled the trade war has revealed rare cracks in the ruling Communist Party.

A backlash is being felt at the highest levels of the government, possibly hitting a close aide to Xi, his ideology chief and strategist Wang Huning, according to two sources familiar with discussions in leadership circles.

There is a growing feeling within the Chinese government that the outlook for China has "become grim", according to a government policy advisor, following the deterioration in relations between China and the United States over trade. The advisor requested anonymity.
Click to expand...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/09/han...causes-rift-in-chinese-leadership-source.html
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Trump wants a few "wins" prior to the mid term election in Nov:

* North Korean government agreeing to transfer xx% of its nuclear arsenal to US or 3rd country within x - xx months.

* China backing down on tariffs and seek new trade negotiation with US by mid-term election.  Trade with Iran might be used as bargaining chip (see below).

* US successfully pressure other countries (EU, Japan, SK, Taiwan, China, India, etc) to cut/reduce trade with Iran by Nov 4th.

etc.
 
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