NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
That would trigger taxable event $_$
Can't shake the obvious parallels to 1999. And of course things got even more stellar in 2000...for a couple months at least. I had a stock that was up over $100 a day for 2 or 3 days in a row! Crashed, of course, like everything else. Exciting times for 20-something me. Loved the days when I would show up to work having made more that morning than I would make at work. That didn't last!
And while I don't disagree with you, I think SpaceX will eventually be known as the former most overvalued stock in history.
Google AI:
SpaceX currently accounts for more than half of all orbital space launches globally. By launch count, they represent roughly 51% to 55% of all global launches. When measuring by the sheer mass of payloads sent to orbit, their dominance increases to around 80% to 84% of the total.
momopi
Well-known member
That would trigger taxable event $_$
Long term cap gains rate after one year. No extra credit given for holding longer than that.
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news?
Can't shake the obvious parallels to 1999. And of course things got even more stellar in 2000...for a couple months at least. I had a stock that was up over $100 a day for 2 or 3 days in a row! Crashed, of course, like everything else. Exciting times for 20-something me. Loved the days when I would show up to work having made more that morning than I would make at work. That didn't last!
And while I don't disagree with you, I think SpaceX will eventually be known as the former most overvalued stock in history.
morekaos
Well-known member
SpaceX will probably follow the path of Facebook..super overhyped, super oversubscribed…super flop…initially….I avoided the IPO and waited…stock struggled to find its feet for 2 years….I finally bought my first positions in 2014 and again around 2019 with covid. It takes awhile for markets to digest these large offerings. Like Aramco…I wouldn’t be in any rush to own it.
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Liar Loan
Well-known member
I haven't run the numbers to try and value it, but in general the opportunity to buy a monopoly is well worth it in the long run. When Buffet/Munger talk about buying companies with a moat, what they are really talking about is monopolistic power. They just don't like using that term because it's frowned upon by regulators. SpaceX already has a monopoly on space launches and there is still so much room to grow, making it maybe the largest market opportunity in our lifetimes.
Google AI:
SpaceX currently accounts for more than half of all orbital space launches globally. By launch count, they represent roughly 51% to 55% of all global launches. When measuring by the sheer mass of payloads sent to orbit, their dominance increases to around 80% to 84% of the total.
Here are a couple ways to get exposure before the IPO:
They're hardly a monopoly. High barriers to entry, yes, but they're not the only game in town. Rocket Lab, for one, is nipping at their heels and enjoying the spacex mania boost in their stock price.
The real question is what's in their future as a revenue steam? Because if I make some generous assumptions about starlink subscription revenue, profit per launch, total number of launches the world might ask of them in a year, plus a reasonable multiple, I get a valuation that's quite a bit under the "whisper" numbers I'm seeing in the news about what the IPO is targeting.
Really? EBITDA of $7.2B is the primary financial engine? Say total EBITDA is $14B. What's a fair multiple to apply to that to get a valuation #? 30? 60? 120?
2028 is a huge wildcard to their future as well.
Maybe they can get into the finance game and "launch" their own credit card, giving their subscribers a subscription discount if they sign up and spend just $2,000 in the first 3 months.
The real question is what's in their future as a revenue steam? Because if I make some generous assumptions about starlink subscription revenue, profit per launch, total number of launches the world might ask of them in a year, plus a reasonable multiple, I get a valuation that's quite a bit under the "whisper" numbers I'm seeing in the news about what the IPO is targeting.
Really? EBITDA of $7.2B is the primary financial engine? Say total EBITDA is $14B. What's a fair multiple to apply to that to get a valuation #? 30? 60? 120?
2028 is a huge wildcard to their future as well.
Maybe they can get into the finance game and "launch" their own credit card, giving their subscribers a subscription discount if they sign up and spend just $2,000 in the first 3 months.
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morekaos
Well-known member
another similarity to the Facebook offering, SpaceX is still bleeding money ….
cryptobriefing.com
SpaceX reveals $13B in losses ahead of IPO, and xAI is the reason
Elon Musk's rocket company posted $4.3 billion in losses in just the first quarter of 2026, largely driven by accounting fallout from acquiring his own AI venture.
SpaceX reveals $13B in losses ahead of IPO, and xAI is the reason
SpaceX disclosed $13 billion in losses since 2023, with $4.3B in Q1 2026 alone, largely driven by accounting impacts from acquiring Elon Musk's xAI venture.
cryptobriefing.com
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
I wanna be a trillionaire... so freaking bad....
morekaos
Well-known member
What is so bad about that? This constant demonization of wealth…used to be millionaires, then billionaires now trillionaires? this is not a 0 sum game..this is actual wealth creation. It is not how you cut up a finite pie…the pie just gets bigger and bigger. As a society we all benefit.
