Sell in May and go away?
Long term cap gains rate after one year. No extra credit given for holding longer than that.That would trigger taxable event $_$
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news?The SpaceX IPO might pour rocket fuel on the market. You don't want to miss this ship.
High oil + higher rates are mostly priced in at this point. A deal in Iran could reverse both situations rather quickly.
I haven't run the numbers to try and value it, but in general the opportunity to buy a monopoly is well worth it in the long run. When Buffet/Munger talk about buying companies with a moat, what they are really talking about is monopolistic power. They just don't like using that term because it's frowned upon by regulators. SpaceX already has a monopoly on space launches and there is still so much room to grow, making it maybe the largest market opportunity in our lifetimes.And while I don't disagree with you, I think SpaceX will eventually be known as the former most overvalued stock in history.