Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?
- Thread starter usctrojancpa
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I'm serious man! This cholo was curling like 25's and didn't collar his weights and nearly dropped them on me while I was DLing... He looked at me and asked why I'm DLing by the rack.
One of the trainers came over and ask Jose why he was curling at the rack and pointed to the machines
next time you see him you need to go thug life on him like this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeMj3xy0P-g
Japan. Remember they love qodzilla and you're going to be big in Japan.
We had 261 closings in June in Irvine so that still leaves us less 3 months of inventory (weak sellers market). I'm seeing more and more lofty/WTF listings pop up and they are just lingering on the market (I even question if those are real sellers). New homes seems to be selling at a decent pace so the market isn't really softening from what I see.
Looks like entire OC's inventory are also up too.
Lansner: Are homesellers anxious or eager to cash in?
homer_simpson
Well-known member
qwerty said:
I'm serious man! This cholo was curling like 25's and didn't collar his weights and nearly dropped them on me while I was DLing... He looked at me and asked why I'm DLing by the rack.
One of the trainers came over and ask Jose why he was curling at the rack and pointed to the machines
qwerty
Well-known member
FARMMMMMIE said:qwerty said:
I'm serious man! This cholo was curling like 25's and didn't collar his weights and nearly dropped them on me while I was DLing... He looked at me and asked why I'm DLing by the rack.
One of the trainers came over and ask Jose why he was curling at the rack and pointed to the machines
next time you see him you need to go thug life on him like this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeMj3xy0P-g
homer_simpson
Well-known member
qwerty said:i was going to qualify it for the gardeners, of course they dont count, where would i live?lnc said:qwerty said:im always trying to run away from my people. the only thing that would get me to move out of columbus square is if i started seeing hispanics in the neighborhood
Does gardeners count?
Japan. Remember they love qodzilla and you're going to be big in Japan.
homer_simpson
Well-known member
Oh it's real lol!
wow $95 flat fee MLS listing. talk about a squeeze on the 3% model!
http://www2.homecoin.com/services/mls-listing/CA/Orange-County/
http://www2.homecoin.com/services/mls-listing/CA/Orange-County/
The Motor Court Company
Well-known member
what the owner wrote must be a joke. $700k is not even 1%er's house, more like their servants'. And in Silicon Valley, it can only buy 2 BR condo in the most coveted neighborhoods, if you are lucky.
rkp said:
homer_simpson
Well-known member
My thoughts exactly TCCC. 8)
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
ps9 said:
We had 261 closings in June in Irvine so that still leaves us less 3 months of inventory (weak sellers market). I'm seeing more and more lofty/WTF listings pop up and they are just lingering on the market (I even question if those are real sellers). New homes seems to be selling at a decent pace so the market isn't really softening from what I see.
ps9 said:
Looks like entire OC's inventory are also up too.
Lansner: Are homesellers anxious or eager to cash in?
Here's August home sale data from CoreLogic. Just thought some here might find this data interesting.
http://www.corelogic.com/solutions/configurable-real-estate-data-reports.aspx
For month of August (2016), 288 total home sold (115 SFR and 173 Condo). Area Code 92603 had 20 SFR sold with median price of $1.78 million and median $/s.f of $600/s.f.
http://www.corelogic.com/solutions/configurable-real-estate-data-reports.aspx
For month of August (2016), 288 total home sold (115 SFR and 173 Condo). Area Code 92603 had 20 SFR sold with median price of $1.78 million and median $/s.f of $600/s.f.
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usctrojancpa
Well-known member
By popular demand, I figured this was a long time coming. There?s been a lot of click bait articles out there that real estate, including Southern California real estate, is ?showing cracks? in various markets so I wanted to provide data on how the Irvine real estate market is performing.
July 2018 sales were down 1% from June July 2017 but rebounded 4% from the drop of 11% in June 2018 (versus June 2017). From a trailing 12-month perspective Irvine sales are down 2% or 47 transactions. Inventory as of 7/31/18 increased 13% from 7/31/17 but remains 4% lower than inventory as of 7/31/16. Based upon this data, we have 3 months of inventory using July 2018 sales and 2.66 months of inventory using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller?s market. Inventory levels peak in July/August like I?ve mentioned in other threads. Note that the inventory levels in the schedule are higher than what I saw when I pulled up the total active inventory in Irvine as of 7/31/18 which was 687 but I decided to use these higher figures to be conservative (the conservative CPA in me?haha).
So what does all this mean and where are we possibly heading? Well, it?s clear that the market has cooled off a bit with an increase in inventory and a small decline in sales. But the market cooling off isn?t necessarily a bad thing, it?ll allow for prices to flatten out and give buyers a chance to buy homes. Properties that show well and that are prices right still go into escrow quickly and many of them with multiple offers. The sub $1m market is doing better than the $1m+ market but ?unicorn? $1m+ properties with larger and/or view lots sell quickly as well. This is most evident from me hearing that several home builders have increased their broker co-ops on their $1m+ homes in the past 4-6 weeks. The economy is still providing a tailwind with a strong job market, increasing wages, and a strong stock market so I don?t foresee that prices will drop in the near term. The August data will be a good indicator if we are continuing to soften or if we are flattening out.
On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, we have seen rates drop from around 4.50% at the end of July to as around 4.25%-4.375%. Rates got as high as 4.75% in July from what I heard. Rates dripped due to heartburn due to tariff talk and the Turkish currency concerns. Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are down to 3.25-3.50% from basically being around 4% in late July. The FED will most likely rate their Fed Funds Rate in Sept by another 0.25% but that really has no impact on longer term mortgage rates. I?ve been telling my clients that we?ll see 4% before we see 5% in rates so let?s see if I?ll be right.
Below are some charts for the infographics fans out there. I?ll be updating this data every month going forward.
Chart of the Irvine sales volume since Jan. 2008
http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5Rk-zq8.PNG?w=800&h=600
Chart of the Irvine inventory levels since Jan. 2008
http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5R9-Y9X?w=800&h=600
July 2018 sales were down 1% from June July 2017 but rebounded 4% from the drop of 11% in June 2018 (versus June 2017). From a trailing 12-month perspective Irvine sales are down 2% or 47 transactions. Inventory as of 7/31/18 increased 13% from 7/31/17 but remains 4% lower than inventory as of 7/31/16. Based upon this data, we have 3 months of inventory using July 2018 sales and 2.66 months of inventory using the past 3 months which remains a weak seller?s market. Inventory levels peak in July/August like I?ve mentioned in other threads. Note that the inventory levels in the schedule are higher than what I saw when I pulled up the total active inventory in Irvine as of 7/31/18 which was 687 but I decided to use these higher figures to be conservative (the conservative CPA in me?haha).
So what does all this mean and where are we possibly heading? Well, it?s clear that the market has cooled off a bit with an increase in inventory and a small decline in sales. But the market cooling off isn?t necessarily a bad thing, it?ll allow for prices to flatten out and give buyers a chance to buy homes. Properties that show well and that are prices right still go into escrow quickly and many of them with multiple offers. The sub $1m market is doing better than the $1m+ market but ?unicorn? $1m+ properties with larger and/or view lots sell quickly as well. This is most evident from me hearing that several home builders have increased their broker co-ops on their $1m+ homes in the past 4-6 weeks. The economy is still providing a tailwind with a strong job market, increasing wages, and a strong stock market so I don?t foresee that prices will drop in the near term. The August data will be a good indicator if we are continuing to soften or if we are flattening out.
On the 30-year fixed interest rate loan front, we have seen rates drop from around 4.50% at the end of July to as around 4.25%-4.375%. Rates got as high as 4.75% in July from what I heard. Rates dripped due to heartburn due to tariff talk and the Turkish currency concerns. Rates on 7/1 ARM loans are down to 3.25-3.50% from basically being around 4% in late July. The FED will most likely rate their Fed Funds Rate in Sept by another 0.25% but that really has no impact on longer term mortgage rates. I?ve been telling my clients that we?ll see 4% before we see 5% in rates so let?s see if I?ll be right.
Below are some charts for the infographics fans out there. I?ll be updating this data every month going forward.
Chart of the Irvine sales volume since Jan. 2008
http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5Rk-zq8.PNG?w=800&h=600
Chart of the Irvine inventory levels since Jan. 2008
http://crmls.stats.10kresearch.com/infoserv/s-v1/f5R9-Y9X?w=800&h=600
interesting that inventory levels were near 2013 lows just 8 months ago. the "summer swing" in inventory (winter-summer) has just barely passed the increase we saw in 2013, so it will be fun to see when we hit the top and levels begin to decrease into this year's fall/winter.
