Newport Coast

[quote author="25w100k+" date=1223352584][quote author="awgee" date=1222503010][quote author="socalmd" date=1222490303]I'm not arguing that prices in NC won't go down further. I just disagree on how much they will go down. I could be wrong. So could you. And yes I would much rather live in a 1500 sq ft condo in NC then a 2500 sq foot house in Irvine. Mainly because I like the area and am not a fan of Irvine. We have a baby on the way, so we'll have to move in about a year or two. I bought my condo for 395K in 2002.



Everybody has different tastes and predictions. Some prefer NC, some prefer Irvine, some prefer Ladera. But those who claim to have a crystal ball are fooling themselves.



I'm still waiting to pick up a former 5 mill house in Crystal Cove for about 1 mill. It'll be nice I can roll down the hill to Maestro's for martini hour LOL</blockquote>


But it does not necessitate a crystal ball. It just takes correct analysis and the willingness to go against the common wisdom. Prices will continue to decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, and they still have another 35% to go. 95% of those who think they will buy a property when prices decrease to that point, will not be able to afford a property at that point. The cost of necessities will be so great that the amount that folks will be able to spend on "owning" a home will much, much less. "Affordability" will continue to elude potential home buyers and even though prices will decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, homes will become less affordable.</blockquote>


Does this mean another 35% off of peak, or 35% of current?</blockquote>


35% off of current. But in <strong>REAL</strong> dollars, adjusted for REAL dollar devaluation.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1223524608][quote author="25w100k+" date=1223352584][quote author="awgee" date=1222503010][quote author="socalmd" date=1222490303]I'm not arguing that prices in NC won't go down further. I just disagree on how much they will go down. I could be wrong. So could you. And yes I would much rather live in a 1500 sq ft condo in NC then a 2500 sq foot house in Irvine. Mainly because I like the area and am not a fan of Irvine. We have a baby on the way, so we'll have to move in about a year or two. I bought my condo for 395K in 2002.



Everybody has different tastes and predictions. Some prefer NC, some prefer Irvine, some prefer Ladera. But those who claim to have a crystal ball are fooling themselves.



I'm still waiting to pick up a former 5 mill house in Crystal Cove for about 1 mill. It'll be nice I can roll down the hill to Maestro's for martini hour LOL</blockquote>


But it does not necessitate a crystal ball. It just takes correct analysis and the willingness to go against the common wisdom. Prices will continue to decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, and they still have another 35% to go. 95% of those who think they will buy a property when prices decrease to that point, will not be able to afford a property at that point. The cost of necessities will be so great that the amount that folks will be able to spend on "owning" a home will much, much less. "Affordability" will continue to elude potential home buyers and even though prices will decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, homes will become less affordable.</blockquote>


Does this mean another 35% off of peak, or 35% of current?</blockquote>


35% off of current. But in <strong>REAL</strong> dollars, adjusted for REAL dollar devaluation.</blockquote>
I am not a finance person... so could you explain how you would adjust for real dollar devaluation?

What does that really mean?
 
[quote author="halfnote19" date=1223525328][quote author="awgee" date=1223524608][quote author="25w100k+" date=1223352584][quote author="awgee" date=1222503010][quote author="socalmd" date=1222490303]I'm not arguing that prices in NC won't go down further. I just disagree on how much they will go down. I could be wrong. So could you. And yes I would much rather live in a 1500 sq ft condo in NC then a 2500 sq foot house in Irvine. Mainly because I like the area and am not a fan of Irvine. We have a baby on the way, so we'll have to move in about a year or two. I bought my condo for 395K in 2002.



Everybody has different tastes and predictions. Some prefer NC, some prefer Irvine, some prefer Ladera. But those who claim to have a crystal ball are fooling themselves.



I'm still waiting to pick up a former 5 mill house in Crystal Cove for about 1 mill. It'll be nice I can roll down the hill to Maestro's for martini hour LOL</blockquote>


But it does not necessitate a crystal ball. It just takes correct analysis and the willingness to go against the common wisdom. Prices will continue to decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, and they still have another 35% to go. 95% of those who think they will buy a property when prices decrease to that point, will not be able to afford a property at that point. The cost of necessities will be so great that the amount that folks will be able to spend on "owning" a home will much, much less. "Affordability" will continue to elude potential home buyers and even though prices will decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, homes will become less affordable.</blockquote>


Does this mean another 35% off of peak, or 35% of current?</blockquote>


35% off of current. But in <strong>REAL</strong> dollars, adjusted for REAL dollar devaluation.</blockquote>
I am not a finance person... so could you explain how you would adjust for real dollar devaluation?

What does that really mean?</blockquote>


It means adjusted for inflation.
 
<strong>Nearly 1 in 6 Owners "Under Water"</strong>

<a href="http://www.wsj.com/article/SB122341352084512611.html?mod=most_viewed_week">http://www.wsj.com/article/SB122341352084512611.html?mod=most_viewed_week</a>



<blockquote>About 75.5 million U.S. households own the homes they live in. After a housing slump that has pushed values down 30% in some areas, roughly 12 million households, or 16%, owe more than their homes are worth, according to Moody's Economy.com.



...............



In contrast with the 12 million home borrowers estimated to be under water, 64 million have equity in their homes. These include 24 million households who own their homes free and clear, and 40 million whose homes remain worth more than is owed on them.</blockquote>
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1222602721][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1222588451]The WSJ stated there are 15 million mortgages and out of that 10 million mortgages will be in foreclosure.</blockquote>


Could you provide a link? That seems a bit high. I have heard estimates of 2 million (which is too conservative). I have not read anyone suggesting 10 million yet.</blockquote>


<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080923/ap_on_bi_ge/cash_strapped_homeowners">http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080923/ap_on_bi_ge/cash_strapped_homeowners</a>



<blockquote>When home prices fell in the early 1990s, borrowers had more equity in their homes, and were able to escape foreclosure. But now, an estimated <strong>10 million homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth</strong>, according to Moody's economy.com.</blockquote>


IR, this is the closest link I could find.
 
Newport Coast topic doesn't get that much attention anymore. In an attempt to make it more visible to folks who have updates, I decided to push it to first page by my post.
 
Sure



Home sales are still down comparing the same dismal period last year (month over month)

Prices are down 15-20% from the peak of 2006. Couple recent sold condos hit the 30% mark, 99% though are in the 15-20%

Currently 205 listing for sale per MLS. This number usually drops into the 185/190 range come holiday season, but I think this season might be a little less jolly

Prices will continue to come down in 2009
 
[quote author="sell4u" date=1228883518]Sure



Home sales are still down comparing the same dismal period last year (month over month)

Prices are down 15-20% from the peak of 2006. Couple recent sold condos hit the 30% mark, 99% though are in the 15-20%

Currently 205 listing for sale per MLS. This number usually drops into the 185/190 range come holiday season, but I think this season might be a little less jolly

Prices will continue to come down in 2009</blockquote>


How many homes sold in Newport Coast in November? In Calabasas only 6 homes sold in in the month of November with about 300 listings for sale.
 
[quote author="fumbling" date=1228914163][quote author="sell4u" date=1228883518]Sure



Home sales are still down comparing the same dismal period last year (month over month)

Prices are down 15-20% from the peak of 2006. Couple recent sold condos hit the 30% mark, 99% though are in the 15-20%

Currently 205 listing for sale per MLS. This number usually drops into the 185/190 range come holiday season, but I think this season might be a little less jolly

Prices will continue to come down in 2009</blockquote>


How many homes sold in Newport Coast in November? In Calabasas only 6 homes sold in in the month of November with about 300 listings for sale.</blockquote>


8 Closings in November, per SoCalMLS.

(Shoreridge closed for $2M and Deep Sea is not yet disclosed.)



<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/NewportCoastNovember.JPG" alt="" />
 
That pretty much sums it up. IR - 11 Shoreridge actually closed for somewhere around $4.8m-$4.9m. Atleast this is what the owner told a family member of mine when he was in escrow. or atleast his words were "just under $5.0m". The supplemental tax bill will spill the beans

oops, forgot to mention Deep Sea closed for $12.5m (I have my inside sources :) That is one hek of a sale price taking into account all factors.
 
I posted a few months ago about renting v. selling our condo in the Summit. We're not upside-down or anything like that. We have 30-year fixed mortgage. We're not in any danger of foreclosure. Our problem is that, for many reasons both personally and professionally, we would really, really like to move to North Carolina. We would have liked to have moved before Christmas, but we can't get rid of our condo. We tried selling it for 1 1/2 years, and nothing. Looking back, we probably were asking too much. Just recently, we've been trying to rent it. Still, nothing. We have a 3br/3ba townhouse, 1763 sq. ft. We've been asking $3,300 for it, which is less per square foot that the apartments across the street, and roughly in parity with other properties in our neighborhood, at least according to the Realtor we're using. We've also indicated that we're flexible on the rent.



Now, we don't know what to do. There is an REO in our neighborhood, 18 Anjou, which is being offered at $724,500. It the same model as ours, except much more upgraded. (Which is why it's an REO. The former owner took out all the equity and covered every surface he possibly could with marble and travertine, put in stainless steel appliances, etc., basically your typical Fritalian villa overkill. I suppose some people like that look, but it's pretty hideous, in my opinion.) In any event, we've done a few upgrades and our place is not in any need of any major repairs.



We bought long enough ago that we could undercut the REO by $25,000 and still come away with a profit. So, I'm interested in opinions. Should we go for it or keep trying to find a renter?
 
[quote author="jmatthew" date=1231222894]I posted a few months ago about renting v. selling our condo in the Summit. We're not upside-down or anything like that. We have 30-year fixed mortgage. We're not in any danger of foreclosure. Our problem is that, for many reasons both personally and professionally, we would really, really like to move to North Carolina. We would have liked to have moved before Christmas, but we can't get rid of our condo. We tried selling it for 1 1/2 years, and nothing. Looking back, we probably were asking too much. Just recently, we've been trying to rent it. Still, nothing. We have a 3br/3ba townhouse, 1763 sq. ft. We've been asking $3,300 for it, which is less per square foot that the apartments across the street, and roughly in parity with other properties in our neighborhood, at least according to the Realtor we're using. We've also indicated that we're flexible on the rent.



Now, we don't know what to do. There is an REO in our neighborhood, 18 Anjou, which is being offered at $724,500. It the same model as ours, except much more upgraded. (Which is why it's an REO. The former owner took out all the equity and covered every surface he possibly could with marble and travertine, put in stainless steel appliances, etc., basically your typical Fritalian villa overkill. I suppose some people like that look, but it's pretty hideous, in my opinion.) In any event, we've done a few upgrades and our place is not in any need of any major repairs.



We bought long enough ago that we could undercut the REO by $25,000 and still come away with a profit. So, I'm interested in opinions. Should we go for it or keep trying to find a renter?</blockquote>




Dang that sounds depressing. Sorry to hear you can't sell your place. My wife and I live in the Summit as well...we have the 2 bedroom with a loft. We'd also like to move within a year but would need around 750K for our unit which probably ain't gonna happen anytime soon(if ever). Unfortunately we did 100K in renovations last year(talk about bad timing).



Have you had any offers at all? Have you considered staging your condo? Perhaps you could offer a lower rent...say about 2300/month in hopes of riding out the downturn. There is only so much space in Newport Coast(unlike Ladera, Talega etc)...so there is still a glimmer of hope. Good Luck.
 
[quote author="jmatthew" date=1231222894]We tried selling it for 1 1/2 years, and nothing. Looking back, we probably were asking too much. Just recently, we've been trying to rent it. Still, nothing. We have a 3br/3ba townhouse, 1763 sq. ft. We've been asking $3,300 for it, which is less per square foot that the apartments across the street, and roughly in parity with other properties in our neighborhood, at least according to the Realtor we're using. We've also indicated that we're flexible on the rent.



Now, we don't know what to do. </blockquote>


You've answered your own question. You're asking too much. If you <em>really</em> want to get this thing off your hands, you would price it to sell (or rent). It does not sound like you are truly ready to do this.
 
Sorry. I remember you on this decision point earlier too.



Personally, I would try to sell ASAP so that I didn't have to be an unwilling landlord from afar/have to pay a management fee.



Alternatively, you could offer it as a long-term lease at very attractive terms (like socalmd says) in order to attract a supremely qualified tenant (3 yr lease?) who you wouldn't need to 'manage' much.



good luck, and report back!
 
Are you asking if people think prices will keep falling? Or are you asking what people think you should do, given the assumption that prices will keep falling?



Just to be clear, there's no chance the rent will cover your expenses, correct? And you aren't so filthy rich that you couldn't find someplace better to put the monthly shortfall, right?
 
As a renter of a similar sized unit to you in a lower class neighborhood, I would be very willing to pay around $2800-$3000 for your place. I do not think that you will need to lower the rent very much to make it move.



That being said, living in N.C. and paying a management fee while pouring money into the property awaiting a potential recovery is a potentially costly and painful situation.



I vote on selling now and getting out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top