Newport Coast

[quote author="socalmd" date=1222432601][quote author="T!m" date=1222234168][quote author="socalmd" date=1222166221]that's crazy. I think you're over estimating the downside in the Summit. Newport Coast will hold value more than most areas. If you're prediction is correct I'd never be able to move.</blockquote>


Yeah, so if Irvine goes to under $250/sq ft, and Newport Coast holds its value more, then it might go down only as far as just under $300/sq ft. That puts 10 Anjou (1200 sq ft) at under $360k, as sell4u suggested. There's really no reason for them to bottom out higher than that.</blockquote>






Maybe but I don't think so. I agree prices got very inflated. But I doubt prices in the Summit go down to less than 500K for the 2 bedroom.



Plus Newport Coast is way nicer than Irvine(except Shady Canyon)



It's a mute point arguing though, since nobody has a crystal ball, and it's all just a person's opinion. I agree prices will fall further, just not as far as some on here think.(at least in newport coast)</blockquote>


Well, if you either are buying there or have already bought there, then you are putting your money where your opinion is. I hope for your sake that you are right. Given the huge spike in jumbo interest rates, the impending Alt-A and Prime ARM reset problem, and the fact that prices there are extremely inflated, there is reason to believe prices may fall substantially.
 
[quote author="socalmd" date=1222432601][quote author="T!m" date=1222234168][quote author="socalmd" date=1222166221]that's crazy. I think you're over estimating the downside in the Summit. Newport Coast will hold value more than most areas. If you're prediction is correct I'd never be able to move.</blockquote>


Yeah, so if Irvine goes to under $250/sq ft, and Newport Coast holds its value more, then it might go down only as far as just under $300/sq ft. That puts 10 Anjou (1200 sq ft) at under $360k, as sell4u suggested. There's really no reason for them to bottom out higher than that.</blockquote>






Maybe but I don't think so. I agree prices got very inflated. But I doubt prices in the Summit go down to less than 500K for the 2 bedroom.



Plus Newport Coast is way nicer than Irvine(except Shady Canyon)



It's a mute point arguing though, since nobody has a crystal ball, and it's all just a person's opinion. I agree prices will fall further, just not as far as some on here think.(at least in newport coast)</blockquote>


Well... actually I do have a crystal ball and it says sorry, but NC is not special. You have the same attitude as those who told us prices would never go down in Irvine over year ago either. Look who was right. You are also nuts to think they won't go down how many foreclosures there are in NC. What have foreclosures done to prices every where else? You're Dr., you know how bad cancer can spread, and the foreclosure cancer is spreading, but it is too late because those who diagnosed the foreclosure problem (me) were ignored. I also laugh because the immune area of CDM had two foreclosures in two days. CDM and NC are like those patients who smoke a cigarette before they visit the Dr. about their lung cancer. And you of all people should know what the outcome of ignoring cancer is like.
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1222474695]Perhaps it is time to add a map of Newport Coast from foreclosureradar.com?



That is a pretty good crystal ball :)</blockquote>


Ask and you shall receive. Everything currently in 92657.



<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/92657.JPG" alt="" />
 
In 2006, my family looked at this house in NC and passed it. Some poor soul thought NC can only go up and purchased it. It's now back to Countrywide foreclosure home list.



<a href="http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Newport-Coast/3-Hidden-Pass-203_U8003535.htm">http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Newport-Coast/3-Hidden-Pass-203_U8003535.htm</a>
 
I'm not arguing that prices in NC won't go down further. I just disagree on how much they will go down. I could be wrong. So could you. And yes I would much rather live in a 1500 sq ft condo in NC then a 2500 sq foot house in Irvine. Mainly because I like the area and am not a fan of Irvine. We have a baby on the way, so we'll have to move in about a year or two. I bought my condo for 395K in 2002.



Everybody has different tastes and predictions. Some prefer NC, some prefer Irvine, some prefer Ladera. But those who claim to have a crystal ball are fooling themselves.



I'm still waiting to pick up a former 5 mill house in Crystal Cove for about 1 mill. It'll be nice I can roll down the hill to Maestro's for martini hour LOL
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1222474243][quote author="socalmd" date=1222432601][quote author="T!m" date=1222234168][quote author="socalmd" date=1222166221]that's crazy. I think you're over estimating the downside in the Summit. Newport Coast will hold value more than most areas. If you're prediction is correct I'd never be able to move.</blockquote>


Yeah, so if Irvine goes to under $250/sq ft, and Newport Coast holds its value more, then it might go down only as far as just under $300/sq ft. That puts 10 Anjou (1200 sq ft) at under $360k, as sell4u suggested. There's really no reason for them to bottom out higher than that.</blockquote>






Maybe but I don't think so. I agree prices got very inflated. But I doubt prices in the Summit go down to less than 500K for the 2 bedroom.



Plus Newport Coast is way nicer than Irvine(except Shady Canyon)



It's a mute point arguing though, since nobody has a crystal ball, and it's all just a person's opinion. I agree prices will fall further, just not as far as some on here think.(at least in newport coast)</blockquote>


Well... actually I do have a crystal ball and it says sorry, but NC is not special. You have the same attitude as those who told us prices would never go down in Irvine over year ago either. Look who was right. You are also nuts to think they won't go down how many foreclosures there are in NC. What have foreclosures done to prices every where else? You're Dr., you know how bad cancer can spread, and the foreclosure cancer is spreading, but it is too late because those who diagnosed the foreclosure problem (me) were ignored. I also laugh because the immune area of CDM had two foreclosures in two days. CDM and NC are like those patients who smoke a cigarette before they visit the Dr. about their lung cancer. And you of all people should know what the outcome of ignoring cancer is like.</blockquote>






I think your anger over inflated housing prices is clouding some of your comprehension. I said I think prices will go down further, just not as much as some predict. However CDM for example will have foreclosures yes, but never the percentage as a place like say Murrieta. Mainly because CDM homeowners are more likely to have income levels and equity to continue paying their mortgage. Places where they continue to build..irvine,ladera,san clemente will always have more foreclosures thatn NC and CDM.

No place is immune to foreclosure, however the percentage of foreclosed properties will vary considerably.
 
[quote author="socalmd" date=1222490303]I'm not arguing that prices in NC won't go down further. I just disagree on how much they will go down. I could be wrong. So could you. And yes I would much rather live in a 1500 sq ft condo in NC then a 2500 sq foot house in Irvine. Mainly because I like the area and am not a fan of Irvine. We have a baby on the way, so we'll have to move in about a year or two. I bought my condo for 395K in 2002.



Everybody has different tastes and predictions. Some prefer NC, some prefer Irvine, some prefer Ladera. But those who claim to have a crystal ball are fooling themselves.



I'm still waiting to pick up a former 5 mill house in Crystal Cove for about 1 mill. It'll be nice I can roll down the hill to Maestro's for martini hour LOL</blockquote>


But it does not necessitate a crystal ball. It just takes correct analysis and the willingness to go against the common wisdom. Prices will continue to decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, and they still have another 35% to go. 95% of those who think they will buy a property when prices decrease to that point, will not be able to afford a property at that point. The cost of necessities will be so great that the amount that folks will be able to spend on "owning" a home will much, much less. "Affordability" will continue to elude potential home buyers and even though prices will decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, homes will become less affordable.
 
I recall recent charts of percent changes in OC default rates show NC 92657 as having one of the highest percentage increases in defaults. Of course the absolute number are still relatively low, but this should be a leading indicator of rising foreclosures and falling prices in NC. NewportCoastRenter
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1222588451]The WSJ stated there are 15 million mortgages and out of that 10 million mortgages will be in foreclosure.</blockquote>


Could you provide a link? That seems a bit high. I have heard estimates of 2 million (which is too conservative). I have not read anyone suggesting 10 million yet.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1222602721][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1222588451]The WSJ stated there are 15 million mortgages and out of that 10 million mortgages will be in foreclosure.</blockquote>


Could you provide a link? That seems a bit high. I have heard estimates of 2 million (which is too conservative). I have not read anyone suggesting 10 million yet.</blockquote>


Sorry, I read the article but couldn't find the link.
 
[quote author="socalmd" date=1223343865]For the record. I take back my previous opinion. I was in denial.</blockquote>


Wow. Assuming you are not being facetious, that is a big change. Very big of you to admit it. The data is pretty grim, isn't it?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1222503010][quote author="socalmd" date=1222490303]I'm not arguing that prices in NC won't go down further. I just disagree on how much they will go down. I could be wrong. So could you. And yes I would much rather live in a 1500 sq ft condo in NC then a 2500 sq foot house in Irvine. Mainly because I like the area and am not a fan of Irvine. We have a baby on the way, so we'll have to move in about a year or two. I bought my condo for 395K in 2002.



Everybody has different tastes and predictions. Some prefer NC, some prefer Irvine, some prefer Ladera. But those who claim to have a crystal ball are fooling themselves.



I'm still waiting to pick up a former 5 mill house in Crystal Cove for about 1 mill. It'll be nice I can roll down the hill to Maestro's for martini hour LOL</blockquote>


But it does not necessitate a crystal ball. It just takes correct analysis and the willingness to go against the common wisdom. Prices will continue to decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, and they still have another 35% to go. 95% of those who think they will buy a property when prices decrease to that point, will not be able to afford a property at that point. The cost of necessities will be so great that the amount that folks will be able to spend on "owning" a home will much, much less. "Affordability" will continue to elude potential home buyers and even though prices will decrease in real vs. nominal dollars, homes will become less affordable.</blockquote>


Does this mean another 35% off of peak, or 35% of current?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223352024][quote author="socalmd" date=1223343865]For the record. I take back my previous opinion. I was in denial.</blockquote>


Wow. Assuming you are not being facetious, that is a big change. Very big of you to admit it. The data is pretty grim, isn't it?</blockquote>






No I'm completely serious. My wife and I had hoped to move up in Newport Coast or to Ladera, but no way in this market. The economy is going down the crapper, and still has a ways to go imo. Recession is here to stay for awhile I'm afraid.
 
[quote author="socalmd" date=1223438664][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223352024][quote author="socalmd" date=1223343865]For the record. I take back my previous opinion. I was in denial.</blockquote>


Wow. Assuming you are not being facetious, that is a big change. Very big of you to admit it. The data is pretty grim, isn't it?</blockquote>






No I'm completely serious. My wife and I had hoped to move up in Newport Coast or to Ladera, but no way in this market. The economy is going down the crapper, and still has a ways to go imo. Recession is here to stay for awhile I'm afraid.</blockquote>


In time, this recession will create great buying opportunities. They always do.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223438906][quote author="socalmd" date=1223438664][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223352024][quote author="socalmd" date=1223343865]For the record. I take back my previous opinion. I was in denial.</blockquote>


Wow. Assuming you are not being facetious, that is a big change. Very big of you to admit it. The data is pretty grim, isn't it?</blockquote>






No I'm completely serious. My wife and I had hoped to move up in Newport Coast or to Ladera, but no way in this market. The economy is going down the crapper, and still has a ways to go imo. Recession is here to stay for awhile I'm afraid.</blockquote>


In time, this recession will create great buying opportunities. They always do.</blockquote>


Last year, I was waiting for home prices to drop so I could buy a home in Irvine cheaper. This year, I don't care anymore. I'm not even think of buying. I'm holding on to my cash.



<a href="http:// http://www.wsj.com/article/SB122334466830710297.html"> http://www.wsj.com/article/SB122334466830710297.html</a>

[quote author="WSJ" date=1223438906]The first time the Dow closed at 9955.50 or higher was on March 15, 1999, when it was closed at 9958.77. Investors who bought stocks then have lost nearly a decage of gains, at least on paper</blockquote>
 
This home catches my eye, and is also good indicator as to what's going on in NC



16 Bandol (Aubergine Plan 3, Newport Ridge community)

4 Bed

3 Bath

3,600 sq.ft.

11,863 sq.ft lot

Hills view (no ocean)

Built in 2002



Total days on the market 148

5-12-2008 $2,975,000

5-29-2008 $2,895,000

6-6-2008 $2,795,000

6-9-2008 $2,699,000

7-15-2008 $2,649,000

7-31-2008 $2,599,000

8-13-2008 $2,589,000

9-2-2009 $2,449,000

10/8/2008 $2,100,000



Sales History on 16 Bandol

12-17-2002: $1,273,500

7-14-2004: $2,200,000

11-9-2005 $2,675,000





Outstanding loans:

Wells Fargo: 1st $1,872,500, 2nd $401,250



Any callers out there what price point this home sells at? Currently priced at $583 per square foot and the Sancerre and St. Michel (smaller track homes) have been closing right around the $500sq.ft. even mark.
 
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