Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

bones said:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/109-Soaring-Eagle-92618/home/173437761

Saw this one and I don't know if it's overpriced or not because it's apparently in contract, so I guess the market says it's not WTF asking price. But they made the 3rd bedroom into a closet - closed off the jack and jill entrance from it and incorporated the master closet into that 3rd bedroom so the master bedroom has no closet. Odd choices. Not great workmanship either in all the upgrades.

I went to a bunch of open houses this wknd and I was the only one there for each one. One had a signup sheet - they had a total of 4 visits on Saturday and I was the first one today 2 hours into the open house. But Irvine will always Irvine right?
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Irvine has a lot of stubborn sellers but prices are slowly drifting lower.  The turnkey stuff still goes quickly into escrow.  The low end seems to be moving OK and the high-high end is also moving OK while the middle of the market is just stagnating. 
 
Rates ratching up fast and hard, I don't expect open house to have swarms of buyers like we did during the boom.

If you have anyone showing now, those are your serious buyers. This is good to have non-investors hovers around. On the hand when you see Opendoor listing, it is a sure bet that the price have discount multiple times. The iBuyers algos really screwed up inventory during height of the bidding war. And inventory when compare to historic data, is still low available existing home for sale. I am suspecting alot of homeowners will hang tight and not listing their homes. It is a dragflation environment, not good for buyers.
 
Low inventory is still going to keep prices from freefalling... not just in Irvine.

If you're in a home at a cheap rate.. you're not going to sell if you don't have to.
 
Yes. DUH. Everyone is trapped in their stucco boxes at 3% interest rates. I?m merely sharing a house I thought was misadvertised as a 4 bed room when it is really a 3 bedroom at WTFish prices and some observations at open houses.
 
bones said:
Yes. DUH. Everyone is trapped in their stucco boxes at 3% interest rates. I?m merely sharing a house I thought was misadvertised as a 4 bed room when it is really a 3 bedroom at WTFish prices and some observations at open houses.
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I wasn't responding to you.

Just checked your link... it's nice... I want one of those retractable sunshades in my backyard.

And yes... I've thought of converting a room to master closet... been watching too much "Selling Sunset/OC/Tampa" on Netflix and huge master closets are like 3CWGs (and apparently driveways) in Irvine.

 
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.
 
Compressed-Village said:
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.
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I don?t know what I?m more impressed by. The fact that you so boldly went on the record here or the fact that you know your mortality. Just super impressive.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
This is an example of way overdoing it when it comes to rebuilding a home in a neighborhood...
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Gillman-St-92612/home/4698841

I think they'll have a hard time getting over $3m for this home let along trying to get over $4m.  This one will sit.
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This is what WTF price is, for sure. Only if rate crater back to sub 3 %, then,....maybe,,,,,maybe not. Yeah, we ain't gonna see that 3 % in my life time. Timing the market and rent for price to crater, might have to wait an aweful long time.
 
Compressed-Village said:
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.
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Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Compressed-Village said:
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.
Click to expand...

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.
Click to expand...

In that case, I want a bad-ass recession. Well, from what I hear, and following, we are in a recession. It need to get a lot more worse than now, to see the FED pivot. Can the FED pivot with all of what little credibility they have left?

Powell, is priced to raise at least 75 this Wednesday, I am rooting for 100.
 
The plan is to reduce upward price pressure by destroying demand via an actual recession induced by reducing the excessive post covid money supply with rate hikes and QT (the latter has been lackluster so far).  75bps Wednesday.  The Fed needs to be predictable.  As a political science major with a law degree, JP understands how foolish it would be to spook the economy as we head into the midterm elections in November. 

The trillion dollar questions are

How high will they raise rates?  Consensus currently gives 70% probability of peak overnight rates between 4.25% and 4.75%. 90% chance we hit 4% by end of year, perhaps one or two more 25bps hikes in early 2023.

How long will they keep rates there?  That's a broader probability and what the market is trying to figure out.  Perhaps some easing in Q4 2023.  Realistically the Fed doesn't even know.  Despite not knowing, the Fed has to play the game of convincing the market to follow their lead (see "creditability", which has been called into question with how wrong they got inflation).

How much job loss and money destruction does the Fed need to see in order to pivot?

Those questions will dictate how long and how severe the recession is.  They'll pivot eventually.  If not for saving jobs and wealth or due to a black swan event, then for political pressure from those who appoint them in the US government, debtor of $28.4T as of 2021 and payer of $400B in interest expense this FY, which will surely rise with increasing rates and continuing borrowing.
 
Compressed-Village said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Compressed-Village said:
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.
Click to expand...

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.
Click to expand...

In that case, I want a bad-ass recession. Well, from what I hear, and following, we are in a recession. It need to get a lot more worse than now, to see the FED pivot. Can the FED pivot with all of what little credibility they have left?

Powell, is priced to raise at least 75 this Wednesday, I am rooting for 100.
Click to expand...

No more screwing around.  They need to raise it 100bps tomorrow.
 
paydawg said:
Compressed-Village said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Compressed-Village said:
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.
Click to expand...

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.
Click to expand...

In that case, I want a bad-ass recession. Well, from what I hear, and following, we are in a recession. It need to get a lot more worse than now, to see the FED pivot. Can the FED pivot with all of what little credibility they have left?

Powell, is priced to raise at least 75 this Wednesday, I am rooting for 100.
Click to expand...

No more screwing around.  They need to raise it 100bps tomorrow.
Click to expand...

People who bet money are currently assigning 84% probability to 75bps

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

The Fed already "surprised" the market once this year with a higher than expected rate hike.  There's less upside and more downside to doing it again.  There's no historical precedent for the Fed hiking the overnight rate 100bps in a single rate decision, so they would be leading into uncharted territory.

Their three tools are talking, manipulating the overnight rate, and outright buying selling bonds and securities (their balance sheet).  Excessive surprises erode the strength of their talking tool.
 
someguy said:
paydawg said:
Compressed-Village said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Compressed-Village said:
I would love to be trapped in few more of those 3%. I will go on record here that I will never see 3 % again in my life time. And I got 60 more years to live.
Click to expand...

Never say never, if we get a bad recession interest rates will be back in the 3% in no time.
Click to expand...

In that case, I want a bad-ass recession. Well, from what I hear, and following, we are in a recession. It need to get a lot more worse than now, to see the FED pivot. Can the FED pivot with all of what little credibility they have left?

Powell, is priced to raise at least 75 this Wednesday, I am rooting for 100.
Click to expand...

No more screwing around.  They need to raise it 100bps tomorrow.
Click to expand...

People who bet money are currently assigning 84% probability to 75bps

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

The Fed already "surprised" the market once this year with a higher than expected rate hike.  There's less upside and more downside to doing it again.  There's no historical precedent for the Fed hiking the overnight rate 100bps in a single rate decision, so they would be leading into uncharted territory.

Their three tools are talking, manipulating the overnight rate, and outright buying selling bonds and securities (their balance sheet).  Excessive surprises erode the strength of their talking tool.
Click to expand...

Agree with you here.

 
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Dry-Crk-92602/home/143911438?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet
This was shown on the Netflix show ?Selling OC?.  Looks like it went live?at $8.8mil. I wonder what it?ll sell for!?
 
callmehere said:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Dry-Crk-92602/home/143911438?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet
This was shown on the Netflix show ?Selling OC?.  Looks like it went live?at $8.8mil. I wonder what it?ll sell for!?
Click to expand...

Well, it has great view, that's for sure.
 
callmehere said:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Dry-Crk-92602/home/143911438?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet
This was shown on the Netflix show ?Selling OC?.  Looks like it went live?at $8.8mil. I wonder what it?ll sell for!?
Click to expand...

So, I realize taste is subjective but come on, that is a fugly kitchen right?  8.8 mil wtf?  How in the world can anyone compare this with the ~9 M properties in Shady Canyon and think "yeah that looks like the right price".
 
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