MLS Irvine Closed Sales since 1/1/2006

[quote author="freedomCM" date=1210224572][quote author="irvine123" date=1210204724]How long does it take from NOD to the final foreclosure? For example, 66 windingway at Woodbury got their NOD first week of Jan 08. There is no one living there, and is still listed as pre - foreclosure on RealtyTrac and not in MLS.



I am not in the real estate finance business. But it makes little sense for the major banks to really sell low for the already written down assets to cause further ripple effects.</blockquote>


Jim the realator's site (www.bubbleinfo.com) has a whole lot of nice (but still anecdotal) information for the N. SD region, showing banks repeatedly delaying the NOD->foreclosure process, so that it is lasting a year or more, for higher end properties.



I wonder if this is happening in Irvine too?



Does IPO have this information?</blockquote>


I have NOD and foreclosure info on Irvine, but not the time to mine it. It would be nice to know how foreclosures have hit MLS (vs. not being marketed) and how long it typically takes to get to MLS after foreclosure...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210226288][



I have NOD and foreclosure info on Irvine, but not the time to mine it. It would be nice to know how foreclosures have hit MLS (vs. not being marketed) and how long it typically takes to get to MLS after foreclosure...</blockquote>




Can't you outsource that? I hear they do good work in India!
 
As long as this thread is derailed into speculation on macroeconomic influences, let me bog it down further:



I saw this commodity/inflationary wave coming five years ago, though I also saw things that didn't come to pass, and no one's timing is perfect, so it didn't translate into the investment millions it should have...



Anyhow, now that everyone is whining about gas prices (and no one in Washington DC has the requisite >90 IQ to correctly attribute this to the deeply negative interest rates of the past five years), it's time to bring another of my obsessions into the light - the great commodity whiplash! Our only real contemporary historical model for this inflationary wave is the big push from 1968-1981. Like that wave, this wave has also featured soaring real estate and commodities in a starring role, with a collective inability to process the bigger picture in terms of war and entitlement spending. (Incidentally, if one studies historical silver prices for about ten minutes, the inflationary effects of war going back consistently for the last 160 years is incredibly obvious.)



If you're still awake and reading, I'll get to the point in terms of OC real estate - the assumption that gas prices are the great elephant stepping on the collective chest of the economy is simplistic, and the corollary that a reversal of this trend would lead to a massive relief amongst consumers and a subsequent rise in economic activity may also be false. Despite the best intentions of Helicopter Ben, a big dump in commodities and a move by the greenback to at least check the gains by other currencies may be even worse for the economy than remaining at these levels or even a continued move higher in gas, copper, the euro, grains, etc.



If this all seems a little too subtle, just do a little homework as to what happened to Houston when oil tanked in the mid 80s. Of course, SoCal has nothing like that relationship to oil prices, but it is food for thought as to do what degree the economy here has actually adjusted to absorbing the investor spillover of the high margins in the energy and food business and to what degree the weak dollar has made tourism, high-end exports and various anti-dollar financial hedges abnormally profitable (and US assets relatively attractive to foreigners).



Kick that football, Charlie Brown!
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1210204724]How long does it take from NOD to the final foreclosure? For example, 66 windingway at Woodbury got their NOD first week of Jan 08. There is no one living there, and is still listed as pre - foreclosure on RealtyTrac and not in MLS.



Same with 50 windingway, not in MLS, listed as bank-owned for more than several months now. I still see a guy living there as of last week.



Several of you have mentioned that banks are "motivated". I know the banks are not in the business of owning homes, BUT: since the banks have written down the loan amount and taken the write off on their balance sheet, why would they be in a hurry to sell?? The only thing I can think about might be the large property tax bill? - do the banks have to pay property tax after they take over a foreclosure??



Also, selling the already written down asset at low price will for sure affect other homes in the area, which in turn causes financial distress for the surrounding homes ( not able to refi). That will in turn cause more foreclosures, and the banks have to write down more.



I am not in the real estate finance business. But it makes little sense for the major banks to really sell low for the already written down assets to cause further ripple effects.</blockquote>


The lenders have not written off the debt. That has been part of their lack of motivation. They do not write off the loan debt until the REO is disposed as it is the final transaction on the property. They do not know the full extent of their losses on the loan until the REO is sold.



Their increased motivation to move properties of late has been the rate of price decline. Every month they held property, they were losing another 3% on the loan. They have great motivation for disposing of property under those circumstances, even if it feeds the price decline. It is a "prisoner's dilemma." Those banks who act fastest get the best prices.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1210240454]As long as this thread is derailed into speculation on macroeconomic influences, let me bog it down further:



I saw this commodity/inflationary wave coming five years ago, though I also saw things that didn't come to pass, and no one's timing is perfect, so it didn't translate into the investment millions it should have...



Anyhow, now that everyone is whining about gas prices (and no one in Washington DC has the requisite >90 IQ to correctly attribute this to the deeply negative interest rates of the past five years), it's time to bring another of my obsessions into the light - the great commodity whiplash! Our only real contemporary historical model for this inflationary wave is the big push from 1968-1981. Like that wave, this wave has also featured soaring real estate and commodities in a starring role, with a collective inability to process the bigger picture in terms of war and entitlement spending. (Incidentally, if one studies historical silver prices for about ten minutes, the inflationary effects of war going back consistently for the last 160 years is incredibly obvious.)



If you're still awake and reading, I'll get to the point in terms of OC real estate - the assumption that gas prices are the great elephant stepping on the collective chest of the economy is simplistic, and the corollary that a reversal of this trend would lead to a massive relief amongst consumers and a subsequent rise in economic activity may also be false. Despite the best intentions of Helicopter Ben, a big dump in commodities and a move by the greenback to at least check the gains by other currencies may be even worse for the economy than remaining at these levels or even a continued move higher in gas, copper, the euro, grains, etc.



If this all seems a little too subtle, just do a little homework as to what happened to Houston when oil tanked in the mid 80s. Of course, SoCal has nothing like that relationship to oil prices, but it is food for thought as to do what degree the economy here has actually adjusted to absorbing the investor spillover of the high margins in the energy and food business and to what degree the weak dollar has made tourism, high-end exports and various anti-dollar financial hedges abnormally profitable (and US assets relatively attractive to foreigners).



Kick that football, Charlie Brown!</blockquote>


I know there is point waiting to be made here somewhere, I just can't seem to find it! :)
 
[quote author="crucialtaunt" date=1210246905]I know there is point waiting to be made here somewhere, I just can't seem to find it! </blockquote>


Basically, I'm saying that all of the GOOD things happening now with the economy - oil profits going back to investors, competitive exports, foreigners buying real estate - are in jeapordy if the current dollar/commodity situation reverses. And, of course, not much good is happening now with the economy...



If one argues that a real estate recovery is contingent upon an improvement in the economic climate, that means bad news.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1210241151][quote author="irvine123" date=1210204724]How long does it take from NOD to the final foreclosure? For example, 66 windingway at Woodbury got their NOD first week of Jan 08. There is no one living there, and is still listed as pre - foreclosure on RealtyTrac and not in MLS.



Same with 50 windingway, not in MLS, listed as bank-owned for more than several months now. I still see a guy living there as of last week.



Several of you have mentioned that banks are "motivated". I know the banks are not in the business of owning homes, BUT: since the banks have written down the loan amount and taken the write off on their balance sheet, why would they be in a hurry to sell?? The only thing I can think about might be the large property tax bill? - do the banks have to pay property tax after they take over a foreclosure??



Also, selling the already written down asset at low price will for sure affect other homes in the area, which in turn causes financial distress for the surrounding homes ( not able to refi). That will in turn cause more foreclosures, and the banks have to write down more.



I am not in the real estate finance business. But it makes little sense for the major banks to really sell low for the already written down assets to cause further ripple effects.</blockquote>


The lenders have not written off the debt. That has been part of their lack of motivation. They do not write off the loan debt until the REO is disposed as it is the final transaction on the property. They do not know the full extent of their losses on the loan until the REO is sold.



Their increased motivation to move properties of late has been the rate of price decline. Every month they held property, they were losing another 3% on the loan. They have great motivation for disposing of property under those circumstances, even if it feeds the price decline. It is a "prisoner's dilemma." Those banks who act fastest get the best prices.</blockquote>


I will be posting some foreclosure stats soon, and they are as ugly as the Jaeger bomb vision mistake of Tenmagnet's latest in the AM. However, to make a point here... The lenders have wised up. The majority of homes at the foreclosure auction have minimum bids starting well below the notice of sale amount, and I am talking about $300k off $600k to $800k'ish NTS amounts. These are homes from Fullerton to Newport Beach, with $100k to $300k off of what is owed, and owed just on the first mortgage, not including the second. These are not 2003 rollbacks, but 2000 or greater rollbacks when adjusted for inflation.



No joke, if you have cash, there are several homes which can be had for IR's 160 rental multiple. Even if you could only get <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=25153061">$1800 a month for this bad boy</a>, you would be below a 160 multiple. Think Irvine is immune? Eh, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=25494034">this sucker could rent for $2500 to $3000k</a>, and it would be in the 160-200 rent multiple. Irvine has the most ever scheduled for foreclosure this month, and it keeps getting worse.



After the April numbers, I know this will continue to get worse, er better if you are a bear. Good deals are coming.
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1210247907]

Basically, I'm saying that all of the GOOD things happening now with the economy - oil profits going back to investors, competitive exports, foreigners buying real estate - are in jeapordy if the current dollar/commodity situation reverses. And, of course, not much good is happening now with the economy...</blockquote>


in other words you're saying we're really, really F'd up?



i think you have an excellent point. we've got our economy so tangled up it's impossible to go back and pinpoint the source of when things went bad. (i.e. no way to know the right way to get us out of this mess!)



in a theoretical world, economy slowing down?

lower taxes to stimulate spending! <em> oops, no room for further cuts.</em>

screw it, let's just do it anyway. <em>oops, we're encouraging overstretched consumers to spend more, despite having record unprecedented amts of debt</em>

ok, let's lower interest rates and get that credit mkt rolling. <em>oops, huge inflation and crushed dollar.</em>



it's like getting stabbed in the gut, some times there's no way to pull out the knife without causing even more damage.
 
This was a low end SFR in Costa Mesa, but it came on the MLS March 20th. However, Citi didn't actually record the deed until March 28th. They started marketing it even before they had legally taken ownership. They also priced it quite aggressively from the get go. Invetors saw it as great deal for $395K and their initial asking price was only $417K. They seemed to have wanted it off the books ASAP. First mortgage was $675K and the second was $47K.
 
Step, do you have a link or address?



Graph, are you saying that the opening bid on that SFH in Fullerton is $250k, and the bank would let it go for that? The second holders aren't stepping in at that price? Wow, that is ~2001 prices, no?
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1210285385]...it's impossible to go back and pinpoint the source of when things went bad. (i.e. no way to know the right way to get us out of this mess!)</blockquote>


We can try!



Early 60s - shift away from silver presence in coinage



Mid 60s - expansion of Vietnam conflict, predicated on staged Tonkin incident, setting us up for carrying the dual burden of fighting an overseas war while accomadating infrastructure expansion for baby boomer education and "great society" spending



Early 70s - Bretton Woods dumped as a result of above pressures



Early 80s - Securitization of mortgages becomes Wall St Bonanza



Late 90s - Fed mops up LTCM mess



2002-present - Fed keeps rates low despite evidence of massive commodity inflation

as credit standards erode to new lows and government expands despite lowered taxes
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1210293882]Graph, are you saying that the opening bid on that SFH in Fullerton is $250k, and the bank would let it go for that?</blockquote>


The minimum bid was $285k, and yes, the bank would have dumped it at that price if anyone had the cash.



<blockquote>The second holders aren't stepping in at that price?</blockquote>


Nope, they are too busy getting hosed with people not paying, so they can't pay people to bid.



<blockquote>Wow, that is ~2001 prices, no?</blockquote>


Pretty much. If you have cash, you can get 2001 deals at the foreclosure auction now. It's a supply and demand issue, just the demand doesn't have the cash, and the one's that do, can't buy them all, so there is no equilibrium.
 
<blockquote>it's impossible to go back and pinpoint the source of when things went bad. (i.e. no way to know the right way to get us out of this mess!)</blockquote>


<p>

1913 - Formation of the Federal Reserve
 
I believe that 1719 Labrador in Costa Mesa, which just came on the MLS today, is a foreclosure. It looks like the foreclosure took place at the end of Dec. 4 plus months seems like an awfully long time to have it sitting there dragging down the books before they get around to trying to sell it. It's not priced very aggressively either... They're asking $575K, about $100K over what would get people looking at a property like this. In fact 1700 Madagascar just came on today for $579K and it looks like the original owners, so not distressed. Why would this bank have it sit that long and then not price it to move?



Awgee,



Are you a Ron Paul fan?
 
Thanks IrvineRealtor that's great info.



I wonder if you can pull one additional piece of information which will help answer the $64,000 question.



Can you tell us what is the rate of recidivism?



IOW, how many of the buyers are repeat buyers? Actually, I'm thinking of something slightly different, I'm wondering how many of the people buying have sold recently. Since you can pull the loan info and title info, you should be able to match names against your 400 sales to see how many are showing up as a seller and then a buyer.



I suspect repeat buyers that have a corresponding sale exceed the current home ownership rates. If the rate is lower, than money is moving into the area. It may help shine some light on where the money is coming from for the downs.
 
This is all real good information...



As a first time buyer myself I'm actively researching the area on when is going to be the appropriate time to make a move.



It seems though we haven't seen the bottom yet though which leads me to believe that right now isn't quite the time to look at forclosures and or listings, as I'm still seeing prices that are still ballooned from the recent boom, I don't know, what do you guys think?



PS - Sorry if this isn't the appropriate section for this post as this is my first!
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1210494670]Thanks IrvineRealtor that's great info.



I wonder if you can pull one additional piece of information which will help answer the $64,000 question.



Can you tell us what is the rate of recidivism?



</blockquote>


<strong>re?cid?i?vism</strong> -

<em>1. repeated or habitual relapse, as into crime.

2. Psychiatry. the chronic tendency toward repetition of criminal or antisocial behavior patterns. </em>



Amusing vernacular choice.



Sorry, I won't have the ability to do this for you. The method I used was far too labor intensive to begin with, and cross-checking name by name would be three times the effort. (MLS allows an export of fields that I could sort, but county title records does not. Each address had to be manually looked up, checked for sale date, correlating primary lien data, with a possible second, and manually entered into an excel sheet.)



Allegorically speaking, though, I don't recall seeing any one of the names that had sold one property in Irvine and bought another within our timeframe. It appears that most if not all of these are from outside of Irvine, at least. Or perhaps they are buying the new-build homes, on which I have no data.
 
Updated to include the month of May. 150 more closed escrows, or about 5 per day.



As a refresher:

<strong>Yellow</strong> is still unconfirmed (no data reported yet)

<strong>Blue</strong> is "suspicious" even though it is recorded.

<strong>Green</strong> is confirmed.



Enjoy it, break it down, and tell us what you see.



Thx,

IR2
 
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