Laguna Altura homes

irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC will not reduce price so  easily. TIC will shut down construction of new homes and shift the crews on the building apartments. TIC will starve all of you then you all will just pay any price after the pend up demand period just like the last time. You are all crack addicts and TIC is the drug dealer.
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See... I'm not the only who feels this way.
 
i get it.  i dont make that much, and been recently speaking to people who have a lot more/make alot more than i do.    many live in south county.  why?  better value, and room to raise a family.  a lot of ppl live in the aliso viejo/ laguna hills/ laguna niguel area.    im not sure why i/we get stuck on irvine, since that part of south county isn't really that much further away.    im just assuming maxing out my/wife's 401k wont get us to retirement and that we need to sock away a ton of money, so $900K is just not acceptable to spend on a home.  that being said, i have a real hard time thinking prices will be slashed that drastically. 

so TIC will shut down production to reduce supply?  how will you think this will affect the resale market?  while normally, lower supply puts upwards pressure on prices, your previous comments would suggest the opposite -  that resellers are pricing based on new home pricing.  so do you believe that if TIC shut down production, that resell SFR's in Irvine will drop?

 
irvinehomeowner said:
And I kindly returned that bidet you sent me... you know how I feel about those things!
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When I said I wanted to send you a little gesture of goodwill, I do hope you weren't too disappointed that a toilet showed up on your doorstep. I'm sure you loved it but just have a hard time accepting such a generous gift. You're welcome!!

(May I just add? With all the crap you've put up with here, you've earned it. Pun intended.)
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC will not reduce price so  easily. TIC will shut down construction of new homes and shift the crews on the building apartments. TIC will starve all of you then you all will just pay any price after the pend up demand period just like the last time. You are all crack addicts and TIC is the drug dealer.
Click to expand...

In fact, TIC has increased the sale price of a Cortona Residence 2 unit on Modena street by about $4K just days ago on MLS.
 
I did not go in but I can feel it driving on the 5 or Jeffrey. I may just rent a few and sublease the rooms to families who might want to send the kids to Irvine High.

WoodburyDad said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC will not reduce price so  easily. TIC will shut down construction of new homes and shift the crews on the building apartments.
Click to expand...
They?re already doing that.
Have you seen Cypress Village lately?
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socalquest said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC will not reduce price so  easily. TIC will shut down construction of new homes and shift the crews on the building apartments. TIC will starve all of you then you all will just pay any price after the pend up demand period just like the last time. You are all crack addicts and TIC is the drug dealer.
Click to expand...

In fact, TIC has increased the sale price of a Cortona Residence 2 unit on Modena street by about $4K just days ago on MLS.
Click to expand...
You have to compare the builder upgrades from the home that was priced $4k lower to this one to make sure that they did not include any additional upgrades like a fireplace, recessed lighting, etc.  It's not quite as simple as just comparing prices.
 
You are so clever! Then the cabinet doors must be gold plated.

USCTrojanCPA said:
socalquest said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC will not reduce price so  easily. TIC will shut down construction of new homes and shift the crews on the building apartments. TIC will starve all of you then you all will just pay any price after the pend up demand period just like the last time. You are all crack addicts and TIC is the drug dealer.
Click to expand...

In fact, TIC has increased the sale price of a Cortona Residence 2 unit on Modena street by about $4K just days ago on MLS.
Click to expand...
You have to compare the builder upgrades from the home that was priced $4k lower to this one to make sure that they did not include any additional upgrades like a fireplace, recessed lighting, etc.  It's not quite as simple as just comparing prices.
Click to expand...
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
You are so clever! Then the cabinet doors must be gold plated.

USCTrojanCPA said:
socalquest said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC will not reduce price so  easily. TIC will shut down construction of new homes and shift the crews on the building apartments. TIC will starve all of you then you all will just pay any price after the pend up demand period just like the last time. You are all crack addicts and TIC is the drug dealer.
Click to expand...

In fact, TIC has increased the sale price of a Cortona Residence 2 unit on Modena street by about $4K just days ago on MLS.
Click to expand...
You have to compare the builder upgrades from the home that was priced $4k lower to this one to make sure that they did not include any additional upgrades like a fireplace, recessed lighting, etc.  It's not quite as simple as just comparing prices.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
What can I say, I can't help but play around with numbers.
 
The Motor Court Company said:
There are more coming. http://www.ocregister.com/news/irvine-342284-city-park.html
South of 405 is getting more apartments..



WoodburyDad said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC will not reduce price so  easily. TIC will shut down construction of new homes and shift the crews on the building apartments.
Click to expand...
They?re already doing that.
Have you seen Cypress Village lately?
Click to expand...
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Like that area needed to get anymore conjested with more residential units.  TIC is going super sonic speed on trying to build all those apartments, aren't they?
 
akim997 said:
i'd like to make a bet with anyone who will take it.  my house is in escrow and i'll have some cash to play with soon.  we have hard-core perma bears conviced that irvine is way over priced, and 20% on the downside seems to be acceptable. 

since, i'd like to have a house in laguna altura (what happened to this thread!) but don't like the price, maybe you can help me out (indie, home shopper... sounds like you guys have the money to spare anyways). 

right now, cortona 2's base price is at around $353/ft or $960K.  If what you say is true, and that fundamentals will prevail of the "ridiculousness" in Irvine and that people will be screwed if they buy, let's make a $100,000 wager (I'm really not kidding).  I will bet you that the price of said house will not drop by 20% over the next 2 years (we can negotiate term) which would be about $282/ft or $768,000.  If the price of this model (and a sale closes) at $768,000.... at some point over the next 2 years, I WILL PAY YOU $100,000 cash.  We can even pick a mid-point at a 1 year mark.  If the price has dropped 10%, then I pay you $50K, but if not, you pay me $50K.  How does that sound? 

You can sit there like scrooge mcduck on your pile of money and contemplate this (im sure this amount means nothing to you) but im willing to put my money where my mouth is.  irvine may have some downside, but i dont see laguna altura selling in the 280's...  which would probably mean that i could get a 2500 sq ft home in northpark or northwood pointe for about $700K.  if anyone thinks that will EVER happen in the near term i'd say you are smoking crizack. 

for me, im willing to part with $100K... why?  because if prices drop that much, ill still come out ahead (in my distorted view)... so let's find away to settle all this chest pounding to settle this once and for all.  any takers?
Click to expand...

This bet is silly and overly complex and specific. In 2 years, anything can happen to the market, and only targeting a specific neighborhood, and not only that, a specific plan within that neighborhood, is not the kind of platform or point I've ever tried to make when it comes to Irvine housing, so I'm not sure why you're calling me out with this type of wager.

But if you really want to risk your money in a bear vs bull showdown, I have a much more fair wager, that is fairly simple, consistent with what I've been saying about the market in Irvine, and proves my point about Irvine housing.

I am a bear when it comes to Irvine, and I will accept your wager ($100 to $100,000, whatever cash you have after escrow), but the wager I will counter with is that the median Irvine sold prices YOY will be lower in February 2013 than they are now in February 2012.
 
if you check the resale price before mid 2009. The prices were less before the 2010 Collection. Sellers became much more arrogant after that with a take it or leave it attitude.

We are moving into the beginning of the pend up phase now. Apartments will continue to raise rents and eventually the frustrated renters will learn that spending just a little bit more they too can own a home.

This is where TIC will bait the mouse trap.

akim997 said:
i get it.  i dont make that much, and been recently speaking to people who have a lot more/make alot more than i do.    many live in south county.  why?  better value, and room to raise a family.  a lot of ppl live in the aliso viejo/ laguna hills/ laguna niguel area.    im not sure why i/we get stuck on irvine, since that part of south county isn't really that much further away.    im just assuming maxing out my/wife's 401k wont get us to retirement and that we need to sock away a ton of money, so $900K is just not acceptable to spend on a home.  that being said, i have a real hard time thinking prices will be slashed that drastically. 

so TIC will shut down production to reduce supply?  how will you think this will affect the resale market?  while normally, lower supply puts upwards pressure on prices, your previous comments would suggest the opposite -  that resellers are pricing based on new home pricing.  so do you believe that if TIC shut down production, that resell SFR's in Irvine will drop?
Click to expand...
 
Entry level home purchases would push the median price down. That is the trend now by buying those one room houses. The halted home construction will drive resale prices down for the duration. Developer is rushing to finish a line of new products to lauch by spring 2013 just in time for the academic years. By this fall we will see ePR blast all over the pacific rim. Judging from the construction climate Indie will have the upper hand because by Christmas TIC would have had a lack luster year selling tired and old one room houses. I will wage $100k on Indies side.


IndieDev said:
akim997 said:
i'd like to make a bet with anyone who will take it.  my house is in escrow and i'll have some cash to play with soon.  we have hard-core perma bears conviced that irvine is way over priced, and 20% on the downside seems to be acceptable. 

since, i'd like to have a house in laguna altura (what happened to this thread!) but don't like the price, maybe you can help me out (indie, home shopper... sounds like you guys have the money to spare anyways). 

right now, cortona 2's base price is at around $353/ft or $960K.  If what you say is true, and that fundamentals will prevail of the "ridiculousness" in Irvine and that people will be screwed if they buy, let's make a $100,000 wager (I'm really not kidding).  I will bet you that the price of said house will not drop by 20% over the next 2 years (we can negotiate term) which would be about $282/ft or $768,000.  If the price of this model (and a sale closes) at $768,000.... at some point over the next 2 years, I WILL PAY YOU $100,000 cash.  We can even pick a mid-point at a 1 year mark.  If the price has dropped 10%, then I pay you $50K, but if not, you pay me $50K.  How does that sound? 

You can sit there like scrooge mcduck on your pile of money and contemplate this (im sure this amount means nothing to you) but im willing to put my money where my mouth is.  irvine may have some downside, but i dont see laguna altura selling in the 280's...  which would probably mean that i could get a 2500 sq ft home in northpark or northwood pointe for about $700K.  if anyone thinks that will EVER happen in the near term i'd say you are smoking crizack. 

for me, im willing to part with $100K... why?  because if prices drop that much, ill still come out ahead (in my distorted view)... so let's find away to settle all this chest pounding to settle this once and for all.  any takers?
Click to expand...

This bet is silly and overly complex and specific. In 2 years, anything can happen to the market, and only targeting a specific neighborhood, and not only that, a specific plan within that neighborhood, is not the kind of platform or point I've ever tried to make when it comes to Irvine housing, so I'm not sure why you're calling me out with this type of wager.

But if you really want to risk your money in a bear vs bull showdown, I have a much more fair wager, that is fairly simple, consistent with what I've been saying about the market in Irvine, and proves my point about Irvine housing.

I am a bear when it comes to Irvine, and I will accept your wager ($100 to $100,000, whatever cash you have after escrow), but the wager I will counter with is that the median Irvine sold prices YOY will be lower in February 2013 than they are now in February 2012.
Click to expand...
 
thats not a bet, nor is it overly bearish...  that means that housing prices may be own .000002% in a year.    i wouldn disput that housing prices can be slowly down trending.  yes u've indicated here may be potntial for a bleed effect on prices.  but u also talk as if irvine is so not special that fundamentally prices should be 20% lower than they are now ( or watever large percentage u actually think it is)

 
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