Laguna Altura homes

It's a completely fair bet between a bear and a bull. We're talking about simply seeing which platform is right.

I'm saying houses will be down in Irvine, and you're saying they won't. If you do believe Irvine home prices will be down next year, then you're a bear, and simply confused about what side you really represent. In which case you owe me and IHS an apology, and then perhaps we will reconsider your Irvine bear membership. If you deny you're a bear, and don't take this bet, then you're simply being dishonest with yourself about what your true platform is.

If you think Irvine is "different and a unicorn" like your pal IHO, then I'm not sure why you won't take a bet on whether Irvine homes will be down by next year... unless of course you're a bear in disguise as I stated earlier.

Arguing about exact percentages like 20%, 15%, or 6.450128% is trying to be a fortune teller which I've never claimed to be(i.e  - I bet it will correct this much in this time).
 
Crossovers are people who are indecisive and destined to be taken advantaged off. I will double my wager to $200k. I will challege any takers. We will set aside an escrow account.
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
I did not go in but I can feel it driving on the 5 or Jeffrey. I may just rent a few and sublease the rooms to families who might want to send the kids to Irvine High.

WoodburyDad said:
irvinehomeshopper said:
TIC will not reduce price so  easily. TIC will shut down construction of new homes and shift the crews on the building apartments.
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They?re already doing that.
Have you seen Cypress Village lately?
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That?s a very sound strategy.
A large number of those already renting there are mainly doing so for the Irvine school and bragging rights back home.
 
irvinehomeshopper said:
Crossovers are people who are indecisive and destined to be taken advantaged off. I will double my wager to $200k. I will challege any takers. We will set aside an escrow account.
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That's what struck me as so peculiar about the bet.

akim says he's challenging the "bears", yet he's hedging his bet by saying I win even if the specific plan, in the specific neighborhood I'm looking at goes down by 19% in 2 years, it didn't go down by 20% at least, so I still win! So basically, at least 10% depreciation a year needs to occur for the bears to win? That's ridiculous.

That doesn't sound like a Irvine housing bull at all. That's simply a different level of bear.
 
I'm testing how much conviction you have in all of your guys claims how everyone will get screwed by TIC and how soon they won't be able to give away these properties.  I'm not bullish or bearish on this real estate market.  i wouldn't be surprised if prices were slightly down and i wouldn't be surprised if houses remained stable (i don't think ANYONE thinks we are going to see large increases).  i've never claimed that i was bullish on real estate.  if i was, then i would have already purchased a house.  in fact, a house i was in escrow on last year relisted at a lower price, then did not get any (acceptable) offers.  and believe me, i would LOVE it if you guys were right and i could purchase a nice 2800 sq ft home in quail hill for $650K. 

what i am actually challenging is how you come on these boards and trash irvine and irvine real estate and point fingers at anybody interested in buying implying how stupid they are.  it seems now you are backing off saying "a bear is a bear, what does magnitude matter"...  so that if prices are down by 2% next year you will say "ha! you all are wrong, I'm right the market is tanking and you are all stupid for buying."  I'm challenging you such that if all your fundamental analysis of irvine and its current offering is correct, you can make some money - throw out a number and maybe we can get a bet.  just saying "it will be down below today's price" is not enough.  I didn't think you would bet anyways, because i know you aren't that convicted. 

he doesn't need me to defend him, but i relate to IHO in that because we are actually looking for houses and see what comes into inventory and gets sold, we have a different view point.  you just pull up a stupid redfin graph that lumps all real estate into a single chart and say "see what's happening".  usc knows more than you as well, as he correctly pointed out the large disparity right now between SFRs and attached condos, the latter dropping by a large margin (believe me, i'm selling one).  there is also a difference based on product and location.  what i do know, is that at least for right now, the is stickiness for the more attractive offerings, and that there IS nice demand for attractively priced, attractive SFR properties.  Do I think the market is overvalued?  Kind of, but how much?  I think the market would clear pretty well at lets say $325/ft vs $350ish for a newer build in a nice neighborhood (houses sell now at the higher price).  That's about 7%.  And I think it would be the same type of softness in other neighborhoods (not exact but lets say just south of $300 for old northwood)  I don't think that's what you are referring to in all of your posts... 
 
IHS, help me out here, I honestly don't know what platform akim is supporting or what exact point he is trying to make.

Is he a mini-bear, and we're all big bears, and it's really a mini-bear vs big bear battle? Or are we Quail Hill bears, and he isn't? Maybe we're 2% bear and he's 20% bear? I've helped define terms and milestones for international funding between 3 different parties (each with a different native language) for a telecom startup in Jamshedpur, and akim's last post is even more daunting to understand than that document.
 
IndieDev said:
IHS, help me out here, I honestly don't know what platform akim is supporting or what exact point he is trying to make.
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It sounds to me like akim is saying that he/she doesn't want you to win if prices are down by only a small amount, such as 2%. I think his/her point is that if you feel so strongly about prices dropping in the future based on your research and analysis, then your data must show a pretty significant drop in order to wager such a large amount of money.

Or he/she could be saying that a very small drop in price by a random point in time is just part of the normal back-and-forth fluctuation of home prices, and doesn't indicate anything statistically significant. Akim may be saying that if prices in Feb 2013 are only 0.29382% lower than they are now, that you don't deserve bragging rights for "being right."

To be sure, I think it would be better to ask akim for clarification directly, rather than IHS.

I would like to facilitate this bet moving forward. It would be exciting to have an active bet going on TI!
 
traceimage said:
IndieDev said:
IHS, help me out here, I honestly don't know what platform akim is supporting or what exact point he is trying to make.
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It sounds to me like akim is saying that he/she doesn't want you to win if prices are down by only a small amount, such as 2%. I think his/her point is that if you feel so strongly about prices dropping in the future based on your research and analysis, then your data must show a pretty significant drop in order to wager such a large amount of money.

Or he/she could be saying that a very small drop in price by a random point in time is just part of the normal back-and-forth fluctuation of home prices, and doesn't indicate anything statistically significant. Akim may be saying that if prices in Feb 2013 are only 0.29382% lower than they are now, that you don't deserve bragging rights for "being right."

To be sure, I think it would be better to ask akim for clarification directly, rather than IHS.

I would like to facilitate this bet moving forward. It would be exciting to have an active bet going on TI!
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That explanation doesn't help either.

My data? I don't have "indie secret" data. My data is simply based on sold homes data readily available on Redfin, OC Register, MLS, etc. There is no "indie specific data", I'm not a purveyor of housing data.

Also, what does "normal back and forth" mean? Are you talking about seasonal fluctuations? YOY changes?

As for bragging rights about being correct about the state of the market, this is the most confusing addition to this discussion. Either you are right or wrong, either housing is continuing to correct or it isn't. It's not about bragging rights, it's about what the data indicates. It's like saying if 1+1 doesn't equal 2, then you don't deserve bragging rights about that being a correct statement. That doesn't make sense because 1+1 being equal to 2 is a correct statement whether you assign "bragging rights" or not.

I think you and akim have given it your best shot, but let's try a different route so we can all gain mutual understanding. Let's get IHS in on this and see if he can add some clarity to this convoluted situation.
 
Oh well, I tried. I'm just a simple girl...not smart like you.

I wonder if some other dumb people out there might maybe understand what I wrote? Eh, probably not. Bummer.

Yes, let's get IHS in on this! It's always nice to have a friend help out. Fighting your own battles is, like, totally hard!
 
You tried your best trace!

What all this about fighting battles? Have you been reading some George R.R Martin recently?
 
Indie - i dont know why you try to complicate things. The bet is simple. like Akim said, you and IHS continously talk about how crappy and over priced Laguna Altura and how TIC is raping people on this development with its prices. So all Akim is doing is betting 100K on whether Cortona will drop 20% in two years. that is the bet. the bet is not his bull/bear platform vs your bull/bear platform. So that is the bet, all you have to do is say yes or no, you dont need to counter with what you think is a better bet or try to read into what you think Akim's believes really are.

So in summary, the bet is 100K on whether you think Cortona wil drop 20% in two years. That is it. So what is your answer? A simple yes or no will do. I would not take the bet. As much as i think these are severely overpriced, i dont see TIC dropping the prices very much, well not 20% in two years at least.
 
Indie - i dont know why you try to complicate things.
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I'm actually attempting to reduce the complexity of the bet. The way akim's bet is structured right now doesn't serve any purpose.

I know what akim's bet is, but what is the point of the bet?

To prove that a certain plan in a certain neighborhood won't go down 20% in 2 years? Or to prove that the bears (IHS and me), are wrong about Irvine housing prices going down?

$100,000 is a fairly paltry sum to myself and IHS (not sure about akim). I just want to make sure if someone is going to lose $100,00, it's on the right basis. Otherwise, I'm not sure why he called either of us out.
 
IndieDev said:
Indie - i dont know why you try to complicate things.
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I'm actually attempting to reduce the complexity of the bet. The way akim's bet is structured right now doesn't serve any purpose.

I know what akim's bet is, but what is the point of the bet?

To prove that a certain plan in a certain neighborhood won't go down 20% in 2 years? Or to prove that the bears (IHS and me), are wrong about Irvine housing prices going down?

$100,000 is a fairly paltry sum to myself and IHS (not sure about akim). I just want to make sure if someone is going to lose $100,00, it's on the right basis. Otherwise, I'm not sure why he called either of us out.
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There you go again. Like I said, you don't need to understand the basis/purpose of  akim's bet. Just say yes or no to the bet. Don't worry about akim's finances
 
Would you say yes/no to a question you don't completely understand the purpose of? That would make you a fool.
 
Like small claims court, it's not about the money, it's all about principal. I consider myself someone of sound principal.
 
IndieDev said:
Like small claims court, it's not about the money, it's all about principal. I consider myself someone of sound principal.
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You must be of sound principal if $100k is such a paltry sum! Unless of course you mean "principle?" Whatever. What a fun play on words!

 
IndieDev said:
Would you say yes/no to a question you don't completely understand the purpose of? That would make you a fool.
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So it is official. Indie chickens out on a paltry 100k bet. Way to walk the walk buddy.
 
Yes, it is official unless Indie cares to make a counter-wager. Going once... going twice...
 
SoCal78 said:
Yes, it is official unless Indie cares to make a counter-wager. Going once... going twice...
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Interesting how when indie proposed a bet to someone, I forget who it was, he got his panties all in a bunch because the other person wanted to modify the bet and here indie tries to do the same thing to akim. I guess it's ok for indie to modify bets offered to him but noone should try to modify his bets.
 
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