Is Tustin Fields getting killed?

just, i agree that VOC does have a much more open feeling, I think the point people are making about TIC communities is that their prices will not depreciate as fast or as signfigant due to the total control TIC has over the actual sales price. Too much competition in the Columbus properties, furthermore, builders are carrying the cost of the land and need to dump faster due to debt service obligations. There's already been a 20% reduction in the price of townhomes in VoC, I can't wait to see more.
 
At least in Portola and Woodbury you don't have to listen to constant traffic noise from Harvard, Jamboree, Edinger and Barranca. We were going to buy at the Madison (nice floorplans IMO and agree on the generous lot sizes) but if you stand in the middle of CG -Tustin you can here all the diesels downshifting on Jamboree, cars flying by on Harvard, etc. I have never noticed that in Woodbury. There is a huge set-back between Jeffrey and even the closest homes in Woodbury. I supposed the houses along Irvine Blvd. get a good bit of road noise though. I rip through that section of Irvine Blvd. at 60mph usually...
 
This site has done a great job in generating interest for the Irvine community. TIC should be happy at the amount of free publicity.





But if any person, company, or group attempt to shut this site down, I'm sure we can have it back up in a foreign country within the week.
 
Portola Springs has the 241, Portola Pkwy, etc. it can be noisy.





Yes, if you stand outside, you sometimes hear a truck in CG. And sometimes you hear a train whistle, which will stop in the next few years due to quiet zones that have started. I'd rather have the CG or Westpark location over anywhere else in Irvine. Westpark is getting older and I don't want to renovate, so that only leaves CG for me. To each their own.





Every neighborhood has the plus/minus, I agree. But my point is that a non TIC neighborhood is not going to turn into Santa Ana 5 years from now just because the placement of the shrubbery is not conforming to TICs guidelines.
 
"The area that I like specifically is Columbus Grove - Tustin. The area is very spread out, lots of wide sidewalks and trees, cul-de-sacs, and open areas. Madison and Ciara (my target communities as prices fall) both have front porches and good sized lots, its a really lovely neighborhood IMO."





I live in GC Tustin you hit it on the head justlooking. I think it's the best by far out of all the VOC or Tustin Fields. It is very quiet, with good neighbors and the central location can't be beat. I'm also glad potential buyers like you recognize this and will help the neighborhood from crashing too much. :) I am worried about all the houses for sale on my street. I think about 6-7 are for sale. I joke with my gf that we may be the only ones living here in a couple years.





Ipoplaya, I'm surprised you mention the traffic noise. I never noticed it, but maybe my hearing is bad. I live right in the middle, so I'm somewhat insulated, but sounds like you were hearing things from the middle. The only complaint I have is the train noise. It's not too load, but it can get a little annoying. Good to hear that's coming to an end. I suggest you take another look at GC. It really is a great place to live and a relative bargain.
 
I agree that Redhill can get very busy during rush hour, but it's more industrial than not by Barranca. As for Barranca, it's mostly commercial by the District. And I guess Jamboree might be noisy due to its freeway aspect. But Edinger??? I have never ever seen Edinger busy on any day at any time. I joke to myself and call Tustin Legacy the Tustin Deserts. Unless there's more developments coming real soon, I think Columbus Square is very quiet neighborhood.
 
rtl, coming to an end? how is the noise from the train coming to an end.



also, getting back to the thread topic, may be a stupid question, but are all homes purchased in VoC in 2007 underwater now? What do we speculate the ave price decline is from purchase price?
 
<p>I also live in VOC Tustin. I do not hear much traffic noise on Harvard.</p>

<p>I hardly ever hear the train.</p>

<p>Getting to the District is very easy since there is a Warner entrance</p>

<p>The increase of homes for sale is a concern I also have.</p>
 
I have a question about the Mello-Roos fees, which are especially onerous for the new developments in Tustin and Irvine.





Are these taxes assessed per lot, or are they always some fixed percentage of assessed valuation.





If per lot, the percent of the AV will skyrocket as selling prices plummet.
 
<p>Votes are cast with dollars and VOC and TF aren't winning any elections. The house we were looking at the Madison backed to Moffett. Standing in the yard there at 5pm, the noise from Harvard was the most noticeable. Jamboree was more of nuisance only for the big trucks. I was worried that once Moffett ran through to the District side, it would get noisy as well. </p>

<p>Prices at CG and TF are both are down perhaps 25-30% off peak, which is amazing consider the newness of the area. Northwood II, just a bit older, is not down nearly as far. Woodbury definitely is not. That area will not hold up nearly as well as TIC developments during this downturn IMO... The last sale of an Alexandria model in CG was for almost 26% less than purchase price, with commissions 28-29% down. CG-Tustin will follow that path I'm afraid. </p>
 
<p>JNinWB - they are based on lot size and ranged according to tiers usually, i.e. 4000-4500sf lot = $X, 4501-5000sf lot = $X+, etc.</p>

<p>Yes, as price plummet, the overall property tax load as a percentage of AV will skyrocket.</p>
 
Yep, as sales prices decrease, you "property tax" will increase due to the fact that mello roos is based upon lot size. Maybe there is hope that the builder will be forced to lower prices to the point where ad valorem tax, assessments, and mello roos will be greater than 2% of property value and the builder will have to buy down the rate.



Scary scenarios is if the bonds default due to the lack of homeowners buying and developers abandoning projects. Not sure what the recourse is. Foreclosure?
 
Alexandria was the peak of Kool-Aid prices. Since Madison and Alexandria are equivalent in size, community (same HOA) and lot sizes, no intelligent person will pay much more than 825k for a house like that since they can always go buy a new one to their own specs. The people who paid 1.2M for Alexandria are just SOL I'm afraid. Now, saying that today's 825k Madison homes will be 500k in another two years is really pushing it. Everyone can hope but I don't see it, and I'm pretty pessimistic about the housing market.








As for Woodbury, check today's blog post, this is just asking price. The actual final price is a whole other story.:





Update 4 — The saga continues… This house was <a linkindex="14" href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1163873">relisted again<img style="border: 0pt none ; margin: 0pt ! important; padding: 1px 0pt 0pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;" class="snap_preview_icon" id="snap_com_shot_link_icon" src="http://i.ixnp.com/images/v3.19.1/t.gif" alt="" /></a> for $1,359,000. The <strong>total loss stands at $473,540</strong>. After putting $525,400 down, I imagine this seller did not think they would be risking a short sale. Their equity is all but gone…
 
<p>Agree JL, Alexandria was peak koolaid. The next carnage in VoC will be Westbource and Cantara... Just wait and see, it won't take long. The NODs are coming fast and furious on those properties. The banks are going to destroy comps there.</p>

<p>The $825K Madison home is 2600sf and you have to slap in landscaping in and window treatments. Call it $875K. Remember, that $875K for 2600sf will cost you $7-8K per year in non-deductible mello roos. At a 7.5% interest rate, that is almost $100K in mortgage vs. buying a similar sized place in guard-gated Northpark or more like $125K in mortgage to buy in Northwood Pointe.</p>

<p>If 2600sf in Northpark is going to fall to $800K (another 20% more) plan on that Madison 2600sf falling to $600K at bottom. $100K of that difference will be created by mello roos while the other $100K would be for location, amenities, etc. </p>
 
Anyone who says that they cannot hear the train, living that close to it, is full of sh*t. Sorry, but I could hear that train when I lived in Tustin Ranch. Now, when it is foggy here in Orange, I can hear that train too, and I am at least 2 miles away from the station. At least Orange passed a law to cut the whistle noise at the station. Maybe I won't hear it as much, once that law takes effect.





So, either you are nearly deaf, wear earplugs, or you have some sort of ulterior motive to disprove the rain noise. Otherwise, I call BS.
 
I've lived in Placentia, somewhat near the train tracks (but not next to it). The property was fitted with train noise in mind and, with the double-pane windows closed, you can't really hear the train much during day time. In middle of the night, you could hear a faint train noise.





KB homes built some new homes next to the rail tracks in South Placentia. They installed a wall as buffer and all the windows look like as if they're multi-layered or bullet proof. I've been inside the model home when a train went by and was very impressed with the sound buffering.
 
At this time sellers’ confidence is at an all time low but home owners in the Irvine Villages are still asking for WTF prices higher than Tustin because of the brand perception in the resale. To develop and brand a neighborhood PR is extremely important. Printing seductive photograph layouts weeks after weeks in expensive magazines as well as the nicer freebies magazines from the neighborhood eateries’ racks are the subliminal marketing that reinforces the brand. Neighborhood directional signs that are strategically placed at the most major locations that direct buyers to the model complex like the Disneyland theme park constantly reminded us of these new home neighborhoods. Even non English speaking grand ma could say the word “Woodbury” since every Asian knows “Burberry” One just could not disagree that these community names are derived with emphasis on the syllables that is easy for Asians to pronunciate. Car makers also used this technique to come up with brand and model names that are easy for Asians to pronunciate. Some just rely on a number series instead of a name. Not to high jack this thread the sellers in Irvine villages are not willing to compromise their selling price than other area.
 
<p>"Ipo, just curious, how many Westbourne and Cantara properties have NODs? "</p>

<p>I scanned the past month or two and I see five in CG - Tustin over that period... Just had another filed yesterday on a larger Tustin Field place too on Loran. Mortgage balane of $992K.</p>
 
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