I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

<img src="http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/roflmfao.jpg" alt="" />



<a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/14/cities-home-prices-lifestyle-real-estate-homes-cities.html">Where Home Prices Are Likely To Rise </a>



<blockquote>Though home prices in many areas still have room to drop, economists say some of the country's real estate markets are showing early signs of repair. A two-year slide in values has eased its stomach-turning pace, and some analysts expect the national market to bottom out by mid 2010.



That's the good news.



But just as subprime lending, the housing bubble and the country's subsequent wave of foreclosures had distinct consequences in separate areas of the country, the recovery will also look dramatically different by region.



When prices do rise, they'll inch, rather than soar, and some areas won't match their pre-bubble prices for a decade, according to home price forecasts by Moody's Economy.com.



In Depth: City-By-City Multi-year Home Price Changes



In cities in Florida, such as Miami and Orlando, housing prices peaked late, leaving ample time for developers to go on a building bender. This has resulted in a bloated inventory. As a result, these areas may have a long wait before real estate costs level out. In Texas metros like Houston and Dallas, sustained economic health and less exposure to the 2004-2006 run-up in prices are expected to help homeowners there weather the bust better than most. </blockquote>


<blockquote>Systemic Problems In the Midwest, Mixed News In California



Midwestern cities will see a grim housing future for reasons that are neither temporary nor cyclical.



"Generally speaking the industrial Midwest has been hit very hard by the housing downturn, because the manufacturing economy has been very troubled and areas there have shed many jobs," says Chen. "The decline in population has also weakened housing markets."



Detroit, whose housing problems are inextricably linked with the decimation of the auto industry, will have barely seen housing prices claw back to their 2009 levels after five years. In Minneapolis, housing will still be nearly seven percentage points lower after five years than where it was in 2009.



Read on for more lists and rankings, including America's most stressful cities, and a look at America's most expensive ZIP codes.



The micro-economies on the West Coast show yet another angle of the housing crisis. Here, where housing prices rose dramatically and subprime lending peaked earlier than in other parts of the country, home prices will likely rebound after five years. <strong>Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose are poised to see the highest percentage increases in home prices at the five-year mark, but all will see prices fall substantially by the end of this year.



"California won't rebound sooner, but growth rates look stronger than average,</strong>" says Chen.</blockquote>[/img]
 
<a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2009708518_housringpredict23.html">Housing prices may not have hit bottom, but they've come close enough to lure some into market</a>



The "natural bottom" for housing prices would be the level at which homes would be affordable to people with a down payment of about 20 percent and fixed monthly payments that could be sustained on their incomes.



By Peter Y. Hong



Los Angeles Times



LOS ANGELES ? <strong>Mark Kiesel saw the real-estate crash coming.



Kiesel, a managing director at investment company Pimco, wasn't alone in his 2006 warning of a looming housing-market meltdown. But he was among the few who put his money ? in his case, a lot of it ? where his mouth was.



Kiesel and his wife, Amy, sold their Newport Beach, Calif., house in the summer of 2006 for 20 percent more than they had paid and moved into an apartment one-fifth the size.



Now, news reports highlight signs of a real-estate market bottom. And the Kiesels are still renting.



Just as experts couldn't precisely time the bursting of the housing bubble, no one claims to know when the market will hit its bottom.



There are plenty of pundits weighing in with predictions on when the housing crisis will end, but knowing what to do is tougher than knowing what to say. For those who sold homes during the bubble, actions can be as telling as words.



"We're not there yet," Kiesel said, referring to the bottom in housing prices. <em>"I plan to buy when I can get a place for 50 cents on the dollar" compared with the market peak, he said.</em>



Kiesel turned out to be right about the housing bubble. But three years ago, he didn't think the crash was going to be as prolonged as it has turned out to be. The Kiesels probably will stay in the apartment longer than planned, he said, perhaps even until 2011.</strong>



Declining prices are driving home sales up over 2008 levels in Southern California and statewide. Nationally, sales are still below year-earlier levels but have been inching up.



Nobel Prize winner and Princeton University economist Paul Krugman and his economist wife, Robin Wells, bought a $1.7-million Manhattan apartment this month. The New York residence had been listed for close to $2.5 million.



Dean Baker, a Washington, D.C., economist, also bought recently. Baker began warning of a housing bubble in 2002 and got even more nervous as prices kept rising.



Baker and his wife, Helene Jorgensen ? also an economist ? sold their D.C. apartment in 2004 and rented a place a couple of blocks away. Although they got about three times the 1997 purchase price, Baker and Jorgensen might have made more if they had held on a year or two longer.



"I wasn't trying to time the peak," Baker said, because he doesn't think it's possible to perfectly time markets. After all, he was three to five years off in his crash prediction.



Recent purchase



That's why Baker and Jorgensen recently bought a house in D.C. The bottom isn't here yet, he says, but it's close enough for him. Baker said he's psychologically prepared for his house to fall 10 percent more in value.



That risk, he said, was offset a bit by the 4.25 percent mortgage rate he obtained and an $8,000 federal tax credit. He also emphasized that a house isn't just a financial instrument but something one might decide to spend money on for enjoyment.



"I really value having a porch, a yard, other things like that," he said, and he's willing to pay a price for them ? just not any price.



Mark Kleiman, a public-policy professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, also thinks markets can't be precisely timed.



"I'm always happy to get in late and get out early," he said.



Kleiman sold his house in 2005 and warned on his blog that real-estate prices had zoomed into bubble territory. He did, in fact, get out early, but the buyer flipped the house a year later for an additional $300,000, Kleiman said.



But Kleiman was happy to walk away with a hefty profit on the house he bought for $465,000 in 1997 and sold eight years later for nearly $1.4 million. Kleiman spent heavily on remodeling, so it wasn't all profit.



Although prices are down, he thinks the safe position is to hold off for now. Kleiman is still renting the West Los Angeles apartment he moved into after selling.



"Two years ago, it was clearer we were still headed down. Now it's not so clear how much more we're heading down, but it's also not clear we're at the bottom," he said.



That's because West Los Angeles prices, Kleiman said, are still above what incomes can realistically support.



"When I moved here in 1995, I could afford the house I bought," he said.



Now, even though prices have come down, Kleiman said he couldn't afford houses near UCLA on his salary, unless he made an unusually large down payment.



Some people who had been saving for years may be doing just that; others have taken advantage of recent record-low interest rates. That could be putting a floor under home prices.



'Natural bottom'



Still, Kleiman thinks "we may not necessarily be at a natural bottom," because "I still think houses in Los Angeles are expensive on an absolute basis."



The "natural bottom" would be the level at which homes would be affordable to people with a down payment of about 20 percent and fixed monthly payments that could be sustained on their incomes. West Los Angeles is not close to that level yet, Kleiman said.



Kleiman and Kiesel may be more likely to wait because they live in markets far pricier than Baker, who paid $650,000 for his three-bedroom, 1,500-square-foot D.C. house.



In Southern California, sales are brisk for homes priced near or below the current $265,000 median. The majority of those homes are foreclosures, so prices are often low enough to draw multiple offers from potential buyers.



Richard Toscano, who in 2004 started a popular San Diego housing-bubble blog called Piggington's Econo-Almanac, lately has been posting data showing home prices are favorable compared with incomes and rents in lower-priced parts of San Diego.



He's drawn fire from some, but others who have followed the blog for years have recently posted comments detailing home purchases. Toscano, who sold his San Diego condominium in 2002 (he said the sale was due more to a job transfer than his belief in a bubble then), is still holding off on buying for various personal reasons.



But he thinks it's no longer dangerous to buy in some areas.



"We have this weird, disparate bottoming," he said. "In some areas we may be there already, but others are not nearly as close."



<strong>Kiesel thinks places such as Newport Beach are among those headed for steeper price drops. Interest rates for jumbo mortgages are still relatively high, and lenders are routinely requiring 35 percent down payments on loans greater than $729,000, limiting the pool of people who can afford homes in the millions of dollars, he said.



Kiesel said that when he buys again, he will require jumbo financing. In that segment, Kiesel said, demand is low because few people have the income and savings to afford the high prices and obtain loans. Supply will grow, he said, as owners of expensive homes purchased during the bubble years find they must sell at a loss or be foreclosed on.</strong>



Although widespread foreclosures have brought prices down in lower-priced areas, more affluent homeowners have been able to avoid defaulting on mortgages thus far.



That's about to change, Kiesel says, because falling property values are putting more wealthy homeowners underwater, where the value of the home is less than the mortgage.



He estimates 35 to 40 percent of homeowners nationwide will, by the end of 2010, owe more on their homes than the properties are worth.



As prices continue to fall at the high end and those homeowners get deeper underwater, they'll have to sell at prices well below today's levels, or get foreclosed on, which will result in the homes being resold by lenders at cut rates.



Meanwhile, rents are falling. Kiesel's rent hasn't increased and others in his building have gotten rent reductions recently, Kiesel said.



<strong>The house Kiesel sold in 2006 has been back on the market for about six months, he said. Would he buy it back?



Only if the owner "would sell it to me for 50 cents on the dollar," Kiesel said.



He doesn't expect that to happen soon.</strong>
 
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a9VklU6xHHaE">Japan Land Prices Drop Most in 5 Years on Recession (Update1)</a>



By Katsuyo Kuwako and Go Onomitsu



Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese land prices dropped the most in five years as the recession discouraged buyers and tighter credit markets choked off funding to developers.



Average prices declined 4.4 percent in the 12 months ended June, the 18th consecutive annual decline, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism said in a report today. Values fell in all but three of the 22,435 locations surveyed.



The decline in land values, which are about half of what they were at the height of Japan?s bubble economy of the 1980s, may slow as the nation emerges from its deepest postwar recession. An 18-month climb in Tokyo office vacancies ended last month and the number of unsold condominiums on the market are down 43 percent since December.



?There are signs the decline in land prices in Tokyo and other big cities is coming to a halt,? Takashi Ishizawa, Tokyo- based real estate analyst at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. said. ?It?s possible Tokyo prices could even rise next year, but the regional districts will continue to see declines.?



Price declines in Japan have been less severe than in other markets that had rallied in recent years.



The value of commercial property in Japan dropped 5.9 percent from a year earlier. In the U.S., commercial real estate values fell 27 percent in the same period.



Prices in residential and commercial districts fell in all of Japan?s 47 prefectures, the first time since the ministry began compiling the data in 1975.



Rural Districts



Values in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, the three major metropolitan areas, declined 6.1 percent, snapping a three-year gaining streak. Prices in rural districts dropped 3.8 percent.



Property developers and managers accounted for eight of the 10 biggest bankruptcies of listed Japanese companies this year, stoking consumer concern about job security and deterring banks from refinancing loans to the industry.



KK DaVinci Holdings, which manages property assets worth more than 1 trillion yen ($11 billion), said last week it may not be able to reach an agreement with creditors to extend a loan secured by its Pacific Century Place building in central Tokyo because of the market slump.



The most expensive piece of commercial property remained Tokyo?s Ginza shopping district, where land can cost as much as 25 million yen a square meter. The value declined by 17 percent from a year earlier.



The capital?s Chiyoda ward, where the Imperial Palace is located, has the most expensive residential land even after values fell 11 percent to about 3 million yen a square meter.



Tokyo Prices



Average prices in Tokyo?s commercial districts dropped 8.9 percent, reversing a 4 percent gain the previous year, as companies relocated or negotiated lower rents.



The ministry said in June that commercial property prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area were still at the same level they were 35 years ago, after the collapse of the real estate bubble of the 1980s erased what had been a fourfold increase.



Office vacancy rates gained for 18 straight months through July, according to Miki Shoji Co., a privately held office brokerage company. The rate was unchanged at 7.57 percent in August.



The number of unsold condominiums in Tokyo and surrounding areas fell to 7,037 units at the end of August from 12,427 in December, according to data compiled by the Real Estate Economic Research Institute.



To contact the reporter on this story: Katsuyo Kuwako in Tokyo at kkuwako@bloomberg.net; Go Onomitsu in Tokyo at gonomitsu@bloomberg.net



Last Updated: September 17, 2009 03:59 EDT
 
IR - The housing market is still in the denial phase. Left are fear, desperation, panic, capitulation, and desponency.
 
WHO IS DOING THE BUYING?



Is it the private client? Not really ? stock funds actually had net outflows of $1.33

billion last week, while bond funds enjoyed an $8.2 billion net inflow.



Is it corporate insiders? Well, heck no ? Robert Toll (CEO of Toll Brothers) just

disclosed that he sold a total 1.6 million shares of his company?s stock yesterday.



Is it buybacks? Not at all ? in fact, S&P 500 companies bought back a mere

$24.4 billion on stock repurchases in 2Q, down 72% from a year ago and the

lowest in recorded history, according to Howard Silverblatt of Standard & Poor?s.



So who?s doing the buying? Very likely it is still a combination of program trading,

short coverings and portfolio managers desperately trying to make up for last

year?s epic losses.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1253311958]I will state it here. I am officailly long the dollar and shorting gold.</blockquote>
From a trading perspective, it would be stupid to argue with your move.

Commmercials on Comex are short, short, short, and 95% of the time they are right, right, right.

Sentiment on the dollar is 90% to 95% bearish.

If I was trading I would be selling.

The last couple of days, I lightened my precious metal positions on the Panda Challenge, but I will only trade paper for a few years.
 
I didn't write this article, but I certainly could have



<a href="http://blogs.navellier.com/all_cap/entry/the_mob_got_it_wrong_once_again/">The Mob Got it Wrong ?. Once Again</a>
 
<a href="http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches.aspx?post=1286020&_blg=1,1286020">Home prices creep higher</a>



But the values of US homes aren't as high as expected.

Posted by Elizabeth Strott on Tuesday, September 22, 2009 10:49 AM



Prices for U.S. homes rose by 0.3% in July from June, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported today, the third monthly gain in a row.







The first-time homebuyer tax credit helped lift prices in July after June prices were revised down to a 0.1% gain from a previously reported 0.5% increase. Economists had expected a 0.5% gain in July home prices.







Prices were down 4.2% from July 2008 and were down 10.5% from the housing market's peak in April 2007. Prices in July were at the same level as March 2005.







Five of nine regions in the U.S. saw price increases, with a 1.6% gain in the Pacific region leading the way. On a year-over-year basis, that region saw prices fall 9%.







The biggest monthly drop was in the East South Central states, which include Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama. That region saw prices fall 0.9% in July.







"Mortgage rates have come back down, and demand for homes remains high," Brian Bethune, the chief financial economist of IHS Global Insight, told Bloomberg News. "There are a lot of positives in housing right now."







The index is based on repeat sales financed through Fannie Mae (FNM) or Freddie Mac (FRE).
 
<a href="http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1925806,00.html">Hong Kong: The World's Most Expensive Real Estate?</a>



Home prices in overcrowded Hong Kong have traditionally been high, but when it comes to having the most expensive residential properties in the world, the Chinese metropolis has never seriously challenged cities like New York, London and Tokyo.





Until now. In another demonstration of how the recession is shaking up the global financial order, two luxury Hong Kong apartments have just gone on the market for a stunning $38.7 million each. If the developer, Sun Hung Kai, finds buyers at that price, the three-level penthouse dwellings, perched atop the 93-storey Cullinan towers with sweeping views of Hong Kong's harbor, could well qualify as the world's most expensive apartments. More than 4,000 sq. ft. in size, the apartments, which are still under construction, are selling for $9,677 per sq. ft. That's considerably above the $6,000-per-sq.-ft. price that top-end London flats were fetching in early 2007, when that city was reputed to be the world's priciest housing market. (See 10 things to do in Hong Kong.)



High-end residential real estate around the world has been hit hard by the recession. Prices for luxury flats in London are still a fifth lower than they were in March 2008. But confidence in Hong Kong's luxury market, driven by surprisingly strong economic growth in China, is recovering quickly. Just last week a penthouse apartment located in a new tower built not far from the Cullinan in Hong Kong's Kowloon district sold for $3.16 million. That may not sound like much for an upscale address, but the apartment has just 590 sq. ft. of useable space ? meaning the buyer paid $5,356 per sq. ft. of living area.



Soaring prices for posh abodes does not mean Hong Kong's economy has escaped the recession. The unemployment rate remains high ? for Hong Kong at least ? at 5.4%; retail sales dropped 5.5% year-on-year in July, the most recent data available. Though average prices for non-luxury housing has rebounded 25% this year, they are still a third lower than the market's all-time high, in 1997. (See pictures of Hong Kong.)



The luxury residential market, however, is getting a special boost. Local property agents say prices are being driven higher by buyers from the Chinese mainland. Wealthy Chinese have ample cash and easy access to low-interest loans because of the government's loose monetary and fiscal policies, which were implemented last year to fight the recession. Buyers are looking to invest close to home, and despite China's restrictions on moving capital beyond its borders, that often means acquiring assets in Hong Kong. (The former British colony belongs to China but has a separate system of government and a more open economy.) About half of the buyers for luxury apartments in Hong Kong in recent weeks came from the mainland, according to reports. (Read "Asia's Easy Money: Fueling New Bubbles?")



The large number of Chinese buyers means growth in Hong Kong's luxury-property market could suddenly cool if Beijing decides to tighten credit. Su Ning, vice governor of the mainland's central bank, said last week that China would continue its "appropriately loose" monetary policy at least into next year, but regulators have already started to clamp down somewhat. In August, total lending by Chinese banks dropped to a third of June's levels.



Peter Churchouse, a director at a Hong Kong investment research and advisory firm, says he doesn't think Hong Kong's housing market is a bubble. But some analysts worry that low interest rates, high liquidity and a tight supply of new apartments could fuel irrational exuberance. Churchouse says: "I could easily see this market developing into a bubble, but it's not a bubble yet." That should be of some comfort for the buyer who just paid $3.16 million for a 590 sq. ft. apartment.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1228438857][quote author="acpme" date=1228437883]if the mkt bottoms at -50% ytd and magically the equity mkts revert to their historical norms of ~10% avg returns annually, it'd take 7 yrs before the mkt is back at the level it was at the beg of 2008.



given that:

1) i've been spared from most of the brunt of the downturn,

2) do believe even if the mkt has bottomed, the ride up is going to be as volatile as the ride down,

3) don't believe in magic,



i'm perfectly happy sitting this one out for a while even if it means missing a large chunk of the upturn.



(having said all that, i dont think it'll take 7 yrs to get back to dow 14k/spx 1500)</blockquote>


acpme,



I am in the in the opinion that we will see a huge dead cat bounce rally going into first quarter of 2009. I do see DOW hitting 11k - 12k into next year, but not making new highs above 14k.</blockquote>


Wow!! Panda may have gotten it right. I tip my hat
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1253875714]Wow!! Panda may have gotten it right. I tip my hat</blockquote>


Hat tip from me too. Good call Panda. I just hope you followed through on it. I have been sitting here twiddling my thumbs waiting to get that "feeling" back, and I haven't yet. So no trades from me since the BAC ride.
 
Graphrix, Let me help you bring that " warm fuzzy good feeling" back. Once the Dow reaches 9,800 - 10,300 and S&P between 1050 - 1120, I am planning on shorting the living crap out of the U.S. Stock market.



Choose your weapons wisely.



Tickers:

DOG - Short Dow 30

DXD - Ultra Short Dow 30



SDS - Ultrashort S&P 500

SH - Short S&P 500
 
Wow, WTF happened to CIT today? Someone floated a rumor about a possible merger with IndyMac(IndyMac?!? seriously???), stock shot up huge. Then after hours WSJ reports they're preparing a deal to wipe out equity and give the company to bond holders. Being a tinfoil-hat-wearing paranoid bear, it doesn't strike me that the rumor today was a coincidence. 392 million shares outstanding, volume today was 363 million shares. I'm just sayin'...
 
[quote author="Oxtail" date=1254302683]Wow, WTF happened to CIT today? Someone floated a rumor about a possible merger with IndyMac(IndyMac?!? seriously???), stock shot up huge. Then after hours WSJ reports they're preparing a deal to wipe out equity and give the company to bond holders. Being a tinfoil-hat-wearing paranoid bear, it doesn't strike me that the rumor today was a coincidence. 392 million shares outstanding, volume today was 363 million shares. I'm just sayin'...</blockquote>


follow the money
 
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYfAUuZRL3z4">Greenspan Sees Growth Slowing as Stocks ?Flatten Out?</a>



http://i34.tinypic.com/wvtso8.jpg

<em>Greenspan as he realizes he soiled his depends.



?The odds are that we flatten out, even though earnings are doing very well,? Greenspan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, referring to the equity market. That flattening out will probably ?put some sort of dull face? on the economy in 2010, he added. </em>



I'm bullish now! Time to buy... buy... buy... anything that moves! Buy it!



<em>Greenspan said he expects the economy to grow at a 3 percent to 4 percent annual pace in the next sixth months before slowing down. <strong>As a result, unemployment isn?t likely to decline much from last month?s 9.7 percent rate</strong>, he said. Even so, he doesn?t expect the economy to relapse into recession next year.</em>



Nevermind... this is the same dolt who never saw this coming and was a failed economic businessman prior to being the Fed chief. I remain bearish to flat as unemployment will rise above 10% some time in Q1 2010. I just hope John Paulson doesn't pay for the same crap he spews to the press.
 
The author of this piece sounds like a homeowner in denial.



<img src="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads/may2008late/kool_aid_man_glass.jpg" alt="" />



<a href="http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/blogs/renow/2009/09/more_signs_this.html">More signs this housing rebound is real</a>



That?s my take on the spate of mostly encouraging local and national real estate numbers that just came out.



The S&P/Case Shiller home-price index, which tracks 20 major metro markets, posted its biggest gain since 2005, rising 1.2 percent in July.



Boston prices rose another 1.2 percent. (Seasonally adjusted, it is a smaller, .6 percent gain.) Overall, Boston home prices are off just 4.9 percent from last year, compared to more than 34 percent in Las Vegas, Case-Shiller reports.



The local numbers also looked solid. The Warren Group reported that single family home sales were up 2 percent, year-over-year, in August, while the Massachusetts Association of Realtors cited a smaller, .4 percent gain.



Median sale prices for the state appear to be firmly back over $300,000 again.



Still, don?t expect that will stop the doom-and-gloomers. After all, it was just a week or two ago bank analyst Meredith Whitney was touting her prediction of another, 25 percent drop in home prices.



That kind of collapse looks increasingly implausible, though there are still lots of things to fret about, if you are so inclined.



While the trends appear headed upward, much of this rebound is being financed by Uncle Sam. There are the billions being poured into that first-time buyer tax credit, not counting the even more vast sums the Federal Reserve is spending to prop up the mortgage market.



As the Fed and the Treasury start to slowly pull the plug on all these subsidies, will the market keep flying on its own or go into a tailspin?



And that?s before we get into the ongoing foreclosure crisis, which, with still rising unemployment, appears to have gotten a second wind.



That said, maybe it?s time for a little optimism. At least it no longer looks like Armageddon out there.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1254477296]That said, maybe it?s time for a little optimism. At least it no longer looks like Armageddon out there.</blockquote>


It doesn't? It looks exactly the same as it did 13 months ago, with a couple of layers of clothing ripped off!
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1254515388][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1254477296]That said, maybe it?s time for a little optimism. At least it no longer looks like Armageddon out there.</blockquote>


It doesn't? It looks exactly the same as it did 13 months ago, with a couple of layers of clothing ripped off!</blockquote>


Have to agree with N0_Vas. The only difference I see is that overall debt has increased and debt has been transferred from private to the taxpayers.
 
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