I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE BOTTOMED!!!

[quote author="Trooper" date=1229084421]The auto bailout bill just died in Senate.....CNN reporting.</blockquote>


Well GM and Dodge/Chrystler are the ones that are hurting. Ford has said they have enough money to get thru 2010 to 2011.... It still won't be fun. I wonder what the hold up was?



-bix
 
[quote author="biscuitninja" date=1229084772][quote author="Trooper" date=1229084421]The auto bailout bill just died in Senate.....CNN reporting.</blockquote>


Well GM and Dodge/Chrystler are the ones that are hurting. Ford has said they have enough money to get thru 2010 to 2011.... It still won't be fun. I wonder what the hold up was?



-bix</blockquote>
Unions, what else.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1229078817]Morekaos, how you feel about the bottom? You still think we are at the bottom? More uncertanty is building up as we speak...hell we might not even have a president come January.

I don't know man...I think when my calls expire next week. I might write at the money calls if we stay where we are at or slightly go higher. Lately I was thinking to write slightly out of money, but I might even go as much as writing slightly in the money calls. I think we retest the bottom sometime in Jan-Feb. We'll see...</blockquote>


Swing, swing, swing...I still think the 7450 will hold
 
Do ya'll think the TARP will now go to the auto industry?



<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/companies/whitehouse_warning/index.htm?postversion=2008121123">http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/companies/whitehouse_warning/index.htm?postversion=2008121123</a>
 
Ack... be prepared for brutal day. Asian markets got whacked, and US futures look brutal. Why? Because of news, the news that the auto bailout failed in the senate. Oh... and Harry "The Giant Douche" Reid said that he dreads... just dreads looking at what happens on Wall St. tomorrow. Gee... thanks for the positive outlook there Harry. Here... I have some razorblades for you. Oh, let me help you with that, not across the arm but up and down, let me show you. F'ing moron.



And for fun, <a href="http://www.markfiore.com/clapper_0">here is the Clapper version of the guberment</a>.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1228883853]Maybe the word "bubble" is over used.



Maybe the best word(s) for this is "OH, S__T!"







<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adLrsq9KMJL8&refer=home">Treasuries</a></blockquote>


I dunno, maybe the word "bubble" is being used appropriately here.



<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=a9yyu08y5TMc&refer=home">Treasury Bubble Talk Grows as U.S. Gets Free Money </a>



Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in Treasuries that pushed yields on bills below zero percent this week is adding to concerns that the $5.3 trillion market for government debt is a bubble waiting to burst.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1229102015]Ack... be prepared for brutal day. Asian markets got whacked, and US futures look brutal. Why? Because of news, the news that the auto bailout failed in the senate. Oh... and Harry "The Giant Douche" Reid said that he dreads... just dreads looking at what happens on Wall St. tomorrow. Gee... thanks for the positive outlook there Harry. Here... I have some razorblades for you. Oh, let me help you with that, not across the arm but up and down, let me show you. F'ing moron.



And for fun, <a href="http://www.markfiore.com/clapper_0">here is the Clapper version of the guberment</a>.</blockquote>


Not as bad as the futures predicted...No?
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1229143677][quote author="graphrix" date=1229102015]Ack... be prepared for brutal day. Asian markets got whacked, and US futures look brutal. Why? Because of news, the news that the auto bailout failed in the senate. Oh... and Harry "The Giant Douche" Reid said that he dreads... just dreads looking at what happens on Wall St. tomorrow. Gee... thanks for the positive outlook there Harry. Here... I have some razorblades for you. Oh, let me help you with that, not across the arm but up and down, let me show you. F'ing moron.



And for fun, <a href="http://www.markfiore.com/clapper_0">here is the Clapper version of the guberment</a>.</blockquote>


Not as bad as the futures predicted...No?</blockquote>


Depends when you open and closed your position, especially at the open they were right. But if you still had an open short position, then at the end of the day you would be mad at the futures. I usually don't think futures mean much at that early of an hour, it was before Europe even opened, but with all the other markets getting whacked I thought they might have some substance. Mind you, this isn't the first time I have posted what the futures were doing at that hour and then at the end of the day they have been totally wrong, it probably won't be the last time I post the futures and have them be wrong. But, that is part of the fun of it
 
[quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1228436972][quote author="morekaos" date=1228435609]There, I am putting it out there with a GENERAL market call. Fire away!!!</blockquote>


DOW at time of call(11:06 ET): 8608



DOW 6min later: 8560





Looks like you already lost... sry</blockquote>


Dow 8629,,,,so far Upper I am even
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1229565917]Call me crazy but I am thinking of going short the gov bonds. PST and TBT.</blockquote>


You're crazy.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1229566366][quote author="morekaos" date=1229565917]Call me crazy but I am thinking of going short the gov bonds. PST and TBT.</blockquote>


You're crazy.</blockquote>


I like the idea of shorting treasuries. I do not like ultrashort ETFs.

I think bv and I think in different time frames.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1229568450][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1229566366][quote author="morekaos" date=1229565917]Call me crazy but I am thinking of going short the gov bonds. PST and TBT.</blockquote>


You're crazy.</blockquote>


I like the idea of shorting treasuries. I do not like ultrashort ETFs.

I think bv and I think in different time frames.</blockquote>


I think shorting treasuries is a great thing and I hate Ultrashort ETFs or ETFs in general along with mutual funds etc.

When to short treasuries is the real question. If you can't answer that you shouldn't do it. Most looked at oil of $100 a barrel and said this is overpriced and shorted. Guess what...most of their investments vanished through margin calls or stop losses as oil shot to $140+. Very few shorted at $100 and lived to tell a great story. I knew this one guy who shorted yahoo when it was several hundred dollars a share. He was certain that the market will crash, and it did. But after spending over 70K on margin calls, he couldn't keep up anymore and had to fold as Yahoo kept shooting up. Not long after, Yahoo was trading at $50 bucks or so...today around $10. He would have been a millionare...easy. But his timing was off.



Then not sure how you short treasuries, so it could be a different investment vehicle with different capital requirements for shorting. Not my ball game, but it makes sense.



So just throwing caution to the wind. When shorting, timing has to be pretty perfect unless the percentage you are shorting is very small to your overall capital.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1229569241][quote author="awgee" date=1229568450][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1229566366][quote author="morekaos" date=1229565917]Call me crazy but I am thinking of going short the gov bonds. PST and TBT.</blockquote>


You're crazy.</blockquote>


I like the idea of shorting treasuries. I do not like ultrashort ETFs.

I think bv and I think in different time frames.</blockquote>


I think shorting treasuries is a great thing and I hate Ultrashort ETFs or ETFs in general along with mutual funds etc.

When to short treasuries is the real question. If you can't answer that you shouldn't do it. Most looked at oil of $100 a barrel and said this is overpriced and shorted. Guess what...most of their investments vanished through margin calls or stop losses as oil shot to $140+. Very few shorted at $100 and lived to tell a great story. I knew this one guy who shorted yahoo when it was several hundred dollars a share. He was certain that the market will crash, and it did. But after spending over 70K on margin calls, he couldn't keep up anymore and had to fold as Yahoo kept shooting up. Not long after, Yahoo was trading at $50 bucks or so...today around $10. He would have been a millionare...easy. But his timing was off.



Then not sure how you short treasuries, so it could be a different investment vehicle with different capital requirements for shorting. Not my ball game, but it makes sense.



So just throwing caution to the wind. When shorting, timing has to be pretty perfect unless the percentage you are shorting is very small to your overall capital.</blockquote>


I would divide my total short position into four parts. I would short now ... wait ... see if the price goes up smore ... if it does, short smore ... repeat until position is on. If price goes down, be happy with whatever position entered, even if only the first entry, and have fun. Same with oil. Who needs to enter at the bottom? Who can?

We did not sell our home at the very top. And we will not wait until the absolute bottom before pulling the trig on a home. Who can know the bottom until it has passed?

Have to know when reasons for entering trade have changed in case you need to exit, and have to know reasons for entering trade so that if the price goes against you, you are not chased out just by price.
 
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